July 11, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 261

Grains Start the Week in Positive Territory

Crude Oil is Modestly Lower

Grains started the week in positive territory as weather forecasts show more heat and dryness for the 2nd half of July. In outside markets, equities continue to move higher following Friday’s sharp advances while crude oil is modestly lower.

 

Weekend rains were about as expected with the northern plains getting rains that missed much of the Dakotas and left Minn with a good drink. Rains across the south were less general and scattered.The GFS model has been predicting heat for the last half of July—more extreme than other models with the ridge of heat moving east over the corn belt. NOAA does not have much above temps but it is hot enough that night time temps do not cool off enough to allow the corn plant to rest and regain strength.

 

Export business was active to start the week. A South Korea feed mill purchased 25,000 MT of US wheat while Jordan and Algeria were tendering for 100,000 and 50,000 MT of wheat overnight. South Korea feed buyers were also active late last week on deals to secure more corn.

 

On Friday, industry group Baker Hughes Inc. reported that the number rigs looking for oil in the U.S. rose by 10, the fifth increase in the past six weeks, bringing the total rig count to 351. After peaking at 1,609 in October 2014, low oil prices put a downward pressure and the rig count fell sharply.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

July 08, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 474

Weekly Cash Comments

Weekly Cash Commentary for week ending 07/08/2016

Overall corn and soybean basis was on the rise this week with ethanol basis leading the run higher.

 

Even with lower productions numbers we saw a 6 cent increase in ethanol basis to close the week. Corn along the river followed closely behind gaining 3 cents per bushel Potentially following lower export expectations from foreign exporters. Overall we saw a national increase of 4 cents per bushel.

 

Soybean river basis was the leader in the bean market this week gaining almost 5 cents per bushel. Higher weekly old crop exports could have led to stronger demand along the river. Nationally soybeans gained 1 cent per bushel. Crush facilities were in lockstep closing 1 cent higher as well.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)


 

July 07, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 320
July 07, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 341

Soybeans Turned Lower Overnight

Crude Oil advances for 2nd day in a row

Soybeans Turned Lower Overnight

Soybeans turned lower overnight while corn and wheat were firmly in positive territory to start the trade day. In outside markets, crude oil advanced for the 2nd day in a row.

 

Grain prices found some support heading into the morning break thanks to new production estimates from Conab on Brazil’s production. Official government forecasts pegged the corn crop there at 69.1 MMT, off from a previous estimate of 76.2 MMT while soybean production was shaved from 95.6 to 95.3 MMT.

 

Weather overnight showed rains in NE/SD of 0.5 to 1.0 inches while southern IN/IL also received beneficial rains. Showers into Friday will favor Kansas, Missouri, eastern Iowa, southeast Minnesota, southwest Wisconsin, northern Illinois, and northern Indiana. This will leave a few spots in south-central Nebraska, west-central Illinois, Michigan, northern Ohio, and the eastern Dakotas (10 to 15% of the Midwest) most likely to see moisture stress.

 

In the 6 to 10 day forecast rains will cover much of the Midwest, while 11 to 15 day rains favor the upper Midwest and may trim back dry spots in North Dakota and around the Great Lakes. Warmer temperatures return in the 6 to 15 day for the Midwest, including a warmer 11 to 15 day trend versus yesterday. However, this still limits mid 90s to mainly Missouri/Kansas/Nebraska and leaves most of the Midwest with peak highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. The lack of more severe heat will limit concerns for pollinating corn, although warmer/drier conditions in the 16 to 30 day for the northeast 1/4 of the belt could still allow some stress

 

Crude inventories fell by 6.7 million barrels in the week to July 1 to 520.9 million, compared with analysts' expectations for a decrease of 2.3 million barrels. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub rose by 80,000 barrels, American Petroleum Institute said.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

July 06, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 333
July 06, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 350

Grains Continue their Sell-Off

USDA Crop Progress Report Shows Corn in Good Shape

Grains continued to sell-off overnight with soybeans giving up 20 cents while corn and wheat were down 7 cents.

 

On Monday, USDA’s crop progress report continued to show a corn crop that was in really good shape. For the 2nd week in a row analysts were wrong in in expecting crop conditions to slide for corn as this week’s reading continued to show 75% of the crop in good-to-excellent condition. However, soybeans on the other hand did slip more than expected to 70% from 72% last week.

 

Consultancy Strategie Grains will next week cut by 2 million tonnes its monthly estimate for France's upcoming soft wheat harvest due to lower yield projections, the consultancy said on Wednesday. In its grain report for the European Union due on July 14, Strategie Grains will put the 2016 French soft wheat crop at 36.5 million tonnes, down from 38.5 million estimated in June, as it cut the average yield to 6.98 tonnes per hectare from 7.38 t/ha last month, it said.

 

The latest weather models show additional showers and thunderstorms for many important summer grain and oilseed production areas in the United states by this time next week. Precipitation will be most significant in northern Iowa, the eastern Dakotas,
Minnesota and portions of Wisconsin and Michigan. The second week outlook perpetuates frequent changes in weather across the United States as a result of a strong jet stream. The European and GFS model runs are both agreeing through day 10 that weather patterns will be mostly good with alternating periods of rain and dryness.

 

Fear of instability in the European Union and of decades of global stagnation sent stock markets sharply lower on Wednesday as Britain's pound sank below $1.30 for the first time in more than three decades. After a steadier few days as investors digested the shock of Britain's decision to leave the European Union, the implications of another round of financial losses, interest rate cuts and central bank money-printing to prop up growth have begun to set in. Gold hit its highest in more than two years on Wednesday as a drop in stock markets and a slide in some bond yields to record lows after Britain's vote to leave the European Union prompted investors to seek out bullion as a haven from risk.


The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

July 05, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 304
July 05, 2016 | | Views: 546
July 05, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 297

Grains Expected to Open Lower

Crude Oil was Off Sharply to Start the Week

Grains will open at 8:30 am CDT this morning following the long 4th of July holiday weekend in the US.

 

Grains are expected to open lower as weather forecasts continue to be favorable. There is a good chance of rain through Thursday that is expected to bring additional relief to much of the corn belt, with 6 to 15 day rains favoring the northwest Midwest. Parts of southeast Iowa/far west-central Illinois/far northeast Missouri/Michigan/northern Ohio and areas near the Nebraska/Kansas border (15 to 20% of the Midwest) appear at most risk to see rain deficits build further, but the timely rains occurring in other spots and a lack of severe heat will aid pollinating corn.

 

The 16 to 30 day outlook has trended cooler since Friday (particularly in the western Midwest), with potential dry spots focusing on parts of the eastern Midwest. While patchy showers are possible in the Delta soy areas (mainly in the 6 to 10 day), dryness is expected to build in parts of Arkansas/Mississippi/Louisiana, and hot temperatures will raise concerns for soy stress to increase. Rains continue to limit dry spots for U.S./Canada spring wheat.

 

On Friday, USDA reported May soybean crush at 160.8 MB, that was below pre-report estimates of 162.5.

 

Crude oil was off sharply to start the week as concerns about global economic growth weighed on the market. Data on China’s economy later this week is expected to show a slowdown, and continued fears over Britain’s exit from the EU continue to keep traders on the defensive. On Friday, the Baker Hughes rig count was up 11 to 341 rigs in operation. This is off the low of 316 set back in late May.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

July 01, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 314

Weekly Cash Comments

Weekly Cash Commentary for week ending 07/01/2016

National basis levels were up across the country this week with Ethanol plants leading the rise higher.

 

Even with another strong week of ethanol production and a large supply of stocks, we saw plant basis rise almost 5.88 cents. Corn river basis followed closely with an increase of 5.5 cents. Overall Corn basis rose a little more than 4 cents this week.

 

National soybean basis closed higher as well. Basis along the river saw the largest increase closing 2.5 cents higher. Soybean crushing facilities saw a relatively small basis increase of 1.6 cents.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

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