Grains Modestly Higher in Night Trade
Crop Tour News shows Indiana's corn yield is down
Grains were modestly higher in night trade with corn and beans posting slightly better than a 1-cent advance, while wheat in Chicago and Kansas City was unchanged.
In soybeans, new-crop month November futures fell below the pivotal $9 mark in the night session reaching a low of $8.98, but managed to recover back to the $9.07 area going into the break. Previous lows set back in early June of $8.96 are within striking distance this morning and could prove as a pivotal point of trading this morning.
In crop tour news, Pro Farmer’s tour results from last night showed Indiana's corn yield at 142.94 bushels per acre, down from 185.03 a year ago and the three-year tour average of 155.21. Indiana's avg soybean pod count was 1,093.08, compared with the year-ago 1,220.79 and three-year avg of 1,146.39. The tour put Nebraska's corn yield at 165.16 bpa, up from 163.77 last year and the three-year tour average of 150.16. Nebraska pod counts averaged 1,220.02, up from 1,103.26 last year and the three-year tour average of 1,045.54 pods. Today, tour participants will be scouting Iowa and Illinois.
For wheat, spring wheat harvest is progressing rapidly in the Northern Plains where harvest reports are mostly positive with good yields being reported. On the demand side, however, there seems to be little outside stimulus to move supplies out of the country. In Portland, there were four grain ships this week, only one of which was loading, according to USDA. Last year at this same time, 15 grain ships were at that port.
Crop Tour Numbers Rolling In
Cody looks at the Pro Farmer crop tour numbers as well as what keeps driving soybeans lower.
Can Pro Farmer Findings Lift Corn?
Yields are highly variable in the eastern grain belt due to the excessive moisture early on in the season. Can Pro Farmer's yield estimate support corn prices?
In the overnight session the grains were mixed with corn unchanged, soybeans down 7 cents and wheat down ¾ of a cent. The U.S. dollar is trading .1% higher this morning and crude oil has slid 8 cents.
The Pro Farmer results from day 1 showed strong South Dakota production with an estimated yield in the state of 165.94 bushels per acre compared to last year’s estimate of 152.71 bushels per acre. The number of Soybean pods was about on par with last year’s levels. In the Eastern leg of the tour yields were not nearly as positive. Pro Farmer estimated Ohio corn yield at 148.37 bushels per acre which was down significantly from the 182.11 bushels last year. The Pro Farmer Ohio yield estimate is also considerably lower than the latest production forecast from the USDA in the August report which pegged Ohio yield at 168 bushels per acre.
Corn conditions rated good to excellent fell 1 percentage point this week to 69 percent which was in line with analyst expectations. Corn development is still in line with the 4 year moving average with 71 percent of the crop in the Dough stage this week. Soybean conditions were better than expected with 63 percent rated good to excellent, unchanged on the week. Traders were looking for at least a percentage point decline in corn and soybeans. Pod setting is 79 percent complete throughout the majority of the crop.
NOPA crush for the month of July was 3 million bushels higher than expectations. Yesterday at 11 AM CST the National Oilseed Processors Association announced that 145.227 million bushels were crushed in July compared to expectations of 141.5 million bushels. Soy oil stocks were above expectations with 1.624 billion pounds in July.
Export inspections beat analyst expectations yesterday for wheat and soybeans. Wheat recorded 560,083 metric tons which was above expectations which ranged from 300,000-425,000 metric tons. Soybeans also beat expectations which ranged from 75,000 to 200,000 metric tons by recording inspections of 375,763 metric tons this week. Corn met expectations with 890,083 metric tons inspected for export this week.
Traders Eye NOPA Crush
Traders will be watching NOPA crush numbers scheduled for release this morning.
In the overnight session the grains moved higher with corn up 2 ¾ cents, soybeans up 2 ½ cents and wheat up 1 ¼ cents this morning. The U.S. dollar is relatively quiet but the Russian Rouble touched a 6 month low against the dollar today and crude oil is down 65 cents this morning. This morning a group of Israeli private buyers purchased 110,000 metric tons of corn to be sourced from optional origins.
NOPA crush numbers are scheduled for release today at 11 AM CST. The average analyst guess for July crush is 141.175 million bushels. Last year July crush was reported at 119.620 million bushels and the four year average for crush in July is 124.094 million bushels. The average soyoil stocks are expected to be 1.592 billion pounds.
This morning the USDA released the total number of acres that went to “prevent plant” this year. According to the report 2.301 million acres of corn, 2.173 million acres of soybeans and .693 million acres of wheat were reported as of August 3rd.
The annual pro farmer tour kicked off today and will run through the 20th. The tour will have two legs which will include the Eastern tour and the Western Tour. The eastern tour will wrap up the first day Fishers, IN while the western tour will stop at Grand Island, NE. On Thursday August 20th the two groups will meet in Rochester, MN.
August 14th, 2015
Weekly Cash Comments
Weekly Cash Commentary for week ending 14 August 2015
USDA delivered a blow to grain markets this week with significantly higher production and yields than expected. Not only did futures markets plummet on the key news, but basis levels were moving lower following the report. US soybean basis was off 2 cents while corn basis was 1 cent lower.
In corn, weakness was most apparent along the river terminals with the Gulf basis down by 7 cents a bushel. On average, river terminals were off 2 cents a bushel. For ethanol plants, basis levels were unchanged on average although some plants were clearly still trying to vie for pipeline supplies with double-digit gains by a few plants in MN, MO & MI.
For soybeans, crushing plants were down 6 cents a bushel on average as the premium being offered in the past few weeks quickly eroded following the USDA report. At the Gulf, basis levels were unchanged but the ripple effects from last week’s pummeling. River terminals on average were unchanged but noticeably weaker for the week along the middle Mississippi river and Illinois River regions.
Grain Bounce Stops in the Overnight
The grains turned lower in the overnight with little bullish on the horizon. Weather continues to look optimal and Wednesday's WASDE report will most likely continue to pressure grains lower over the next couple weeks.
The grains rebound from the lows printed on Wednesday came to a halt last night and reversed with corn down 3 1/4 cents, soybeans down 11 cents and wheat down 2 3/4 cents. The U.S. dollar is trading down .12 percent and crude oil is down 13 cents this morning. Egypt’s GASC purchased 175,000 metric tons of wheat in a tender that was sourced from Ukraine and Russia.
On Thursday the U.S. Climate Prediction Center announced that the likelihood of El Nino continuing through the spring has increased to 85 percent from 80 percent last month. According to the center this year’s El Nino is “significant and strengthening” with most models pointing to an event above 2.0 on the Oceanic Nino index. The last El Nino event that registered over 2.0 was in 1997.
The weather forecast will provide moisture to some of the drier areas next week with the 6-10 day forecast also favoring a wetter than normal Midwest. Temperatures should be warmer than normal which should help speed up crop development and provide little stress on the crop. Temperatures could reach mid 90’s in North Dakota over the weekend.
Grains Bounce After Hard Selling On Wednesday
Grains Bounce in Overnight
The grains have been able to claw back some losses in the overnight, after sharp selling dominated the market following the UDSA report on Wednesday
In the overnight session the grains traded higher with corn up 3 cents, soybeans up 8 cents and wheat up 4 cents. The U.S. dollar is trading higher by .30 percent and crude oil is down 25 cents this morning. Grains traded sharply lower on the August Supply and Demand report which was released out yesterday. A surprise yield increase for both corn and soybeans shocked the market resulting in significantly larger ending stocks than originally expected out of this report. Corn yield was adjusted 2 bushels per acre higher to 168.8 BPA bringing new crop corn ending stocks to 1.713 billion bushels which was 289 million bushels over expectations. Soybean yield was revised .9 bushels higher to 46.9 BPA in this report pushing ending stocks 169 million bushels above analyst expectations to 470 million bushels.
Export sales showed some slight improvement this week for corn and soybeans but sales remained lackluster. Wheat booked 421,600 metric tons this week which was down 50 percent from the previous week and was on the low end of analyst expectations. Corn sales were positive but only recorded 29,200 metric tons of old crop sales which was well below the expectations which ranged from 50,000-250,000 metric tons. New crop corn sales met expectations with 501,900 metric tons sold last week. Old crop soybean sales were up noticeably from the net cancellations in the previous week. With 96,300 metric tons sold, this week’s sales were able to meet expectations. New crop soybean sales were also strong with 660,500 metric tons reported this week.
Ethanol production increased 4,000 barrels per day this week to 965,000 BPD snapping a four week decline in production. Ethanol production this week is recorded 86,000 barrels per day more than the four year average and 34,000 barrels per day ahead of production in the same week last year. Cumulative ethanol production this year is 4.6 percent ahead of the pace last marketing season. Ethanol stocks declined this week by 710,000 barrels to 18.53 million barrels.
Grains Sharply Lower on Large New Crop Carryout