March 16, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 251

Grains Move Higher in the Overnight

USDA Weekly Exports Show a Good Week for Corn

Grains moved higher overnight led by soybeans as they moved above $10 a bushel on front month May. Outside markets saw crude oil and equities higher while the US dollar hit their lowest mark since early February.


USDA said exporters sold 120,000 MT of Hard Red Winter wheat to Algeria and 120,000 MT of soybeans to unknown destinations.


Traders are keenly watching the weather outlook in the dry Southern Plains. Warm temperatures Thursday through Sunday will increase some of the need for moisture as the crop develops further. The latest weather models show a rain system for Mar. 22-24 in this region but it will likely miss where the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles miss out A second system is expected in western Hard Red Winter Wheat areas Mar. 26-28 but again the SW Plains are expected to miss out.

USDA weekly exports showed a good week for corn with both old- and new-crop sales beating the high end of expectations. Meanwhile wheat was at the low end of expectations for both old- and new-crop while soybean old-crop sales were at the low end of expectations but new-crop exceeded expectations.


Export Sales-




Wheat - OC 



Wheat - NC



Corn - OC



Corn - NC










On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates as expected and signaled that they expect a total of 3 rate hikes in 2017 and 3 more hikes in 2018 based on the strong economic signals.


The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

March 15, 2017 | Kevin McNew | Views: 231
March 15, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 209

Grains in Recovery Mode on Wednesday

February NOPA Crush will be out at 11 am CST Today

Grains were in recovery mode on Wednesday after two weeks of sliding lower. In outside markets, crude oil was trying to bounce off its worst prices in 3.5 months while the US dollar was weaker to start the day ahead of the Fed announcement.


Overnight, there was some interest in wheat deals with Egypt tendering for an unspecified amount of wheat. In addition, Jordan and Indonesia were also shopping for milling wheat.


February NOPA crush will be out at 11 am CDT today. The trade expects a soft month thanks to weakening crush margins. Only 146.1 MB are expected to have been crushed in February, slightly off from 146.2 in the same month last year.


In the US, cold temperatures along the Eastern Cornbelt of IN/OH/KY are thought to have caused some winter kill damage to the wheat crop there. In the Plains, there are expected to be rains in the 11-15 day outlook although it will be confined mostly to the Eastern Plains, with the SW parts of KS/OK/TX not expected to see much moisture.


The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates in their policy statement at 1 PM CDT. If realized, this would be the second time in three months. The rate-hike is widely expected, so the real news will be if the U.S. central bank will signal an even faster pace of monetary tightening this year than the current three rate hikes that it projected at its December meeting.


US export competitiveness improved this week with US prices falling more than foreign country FOB grain prices. The exception was Argentina’s wheat which moved $2/MT lower relative to US prices over the past week.







Last Week

Last Year





































Export spreads represent a foreign country price minus US price at export destinations, in USD per metric ton.  A higher spread indicates

the foreign price has risen relative to US prices, making the foreign country less competitive and the US more competitive.


The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

March 14, 2017 | Kevin McNew | Views: 225
March 14, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 231

US Soybean Prices Drop below $10 a Bushel to Hit 2-Month Low

The US Department of Agriculture believes South America is on the verge of harvesting a monster corn crop

Corn fell on high corn plantings while wheat prices edged lower on welcome rain forecasts.


Exporters sell 120,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2017/2018 marketing year. -USDA


US soybean prices dropped below $10 a bushel to hit a two-month low on Tuesday, dragged down by expectations of record South American production in a global market that is already amply supplied. Increased SA production comes as US farmers are expected to plant more soybeans next season, adding to global inventories. Private analytics firm Informa Economics raised its 2017 US soybean plantings forecast to 88.7 million acres, from 88.647 million in January.


The US Department of Agriculture believes South America is on the verge of harvesting a monster corn crop, but the agency’s past prediction tendencies suggest that the record targets it has set could still be too low.


Last Thursday, USDA revised its forecast for 2016/17 Brazil corn output to 91.5 million tonnes, some 6 percent greater than last month’s figure. The US agency also increased the Argentine crop to 37.5 million tonnes, a 3 percent rise from February.  This may not be the best news for corn bulls, as Chicago prices have been feeling pressure in the face of the likely record world corn supply this year. The world will look to Brazil and Argentina to supply 37 percent of world corn trade this year.


The dollar rose before the start on Tuesday of a Federal Reserve policy meeting expected to raise US interest rates.  The Dollar Index which measures the dollar against six other major currencies, rose 0.3 percent. A Fed rate rise on Wednesday is seen as all but certain and investors will focus on new economic forecasts and any clues to how many rate hikes can be expected this year. While higher rates would raise companies’ costs, they are also seen as evidence of economic recovery.


The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

March 13, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 207

US Soybean Prices on Monday Inch away from Two-Month Lows

An event packed week for global markets gets underway

US soybean prices on Monday inched away from two-month lows touched in the previous session, though gains were checked by forecasts of ample South American supply. Corn prices were flat after hitting a three-week low the session before, while wheat was largely unchanged.


Exporters sell 120,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2017/2018 marketing year.


China’s wheat imports are expected to rise to 4.5 million tonnes in the year to June 2017 from 3.48 million tonnes previously as lower production and the poor quality of the domestic crop boost demand. Wheat production in China, the world’s top consumer of the grain, is estimated to decline to 129 million tonnes during the year from 130.19 million in the prior period. The USDA has estimated China’s wheat imports during the year at 4 million tonnes.


Weekend rain in Brazil favored C Mato Grosso. Localized wetness concerns for RGDS soy/rice harvest areas, but dry the next 10 days except for showers on Thursday. Weekend rains limited to N & SE fringes of Argentina northern ¼ of corn/soy the next 10 days; favorable early harvest. Return of Arg. rains in the 11-15 & 16-30 day outlook (mainly west) will slow fieldwork at times, but no signs of severe wetness.

An event-packed week for global markets got underway on Monday with stocks steady and the dollar recovering from a three-day fall as investors braced for a potential interest hike in the US, a Dutch election and the first G20 finance ministers’ meeting of the Trump era.


The world’s most powerful finance ministers and central bankers convene in the German town of Baden-Baden on March 17-18, their first meeting since Donald Trump’s US election victory in November where his protectionist stance on international trade is likely to be a key issue.

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

March 10, 2017 | Kevin McNew | Views: 201
March 10, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 194

Weekly Cash Comments

Weekly Cash Commentary for Week Ending 03/10/2017

Weekly Cash Comments

Grain basis levels were mostly stagnant this week even with the sharp sell-off on the board. For the week, US average corn basis was mostly unchanged while the US average soybean basis inched up by 1 cent a bushel.

Processors continue to show very little interest in bidding up basis levels, although this week did bring some modest movement to bean basis at crush facilities as collectively they raised their bids by 1.4 cents. But, ethanol plants were less inclined to move it higher, showing only a modest 0.4 cent advance.






-0.1 C

+1.2 C


+0.4 C

+1.4 C


-2.8 C

-2.0 C


For river terminals, there was some noticeable weakness for both corn and soybeans. Corn basis at river terminals was off 2.8 cents on the week, while soybean basis was down 2 cents.

Seasonal patterns for corn basis continue to show processors running well below normal for this time of year. Current basis levels are about 20-cents a bushel below the 7-year average basis for ethanol plants. However, river terminals continue to be mostly on par with basis levels for this time of year.


For beans, crush facilities are running nearly 40-cents below their normal basis for this time of year while river terminals are about 20-cents below. Look for river basis to improve steadily heading into May 1. Also, slow farmer selling in April will likely be the norm which should give an added boost to basis levels helping to push them higher.


The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

March 10, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 267

Grains Continue their Sell Off

US Jobs Report Out this AM

Grains continued to sell-off over night with soybeans again leading the complex down. In outside markets, a positive US jobs report this morning helped push equity futures higher higher.


After holding pat on Brazil’s production forecasts for the past several months, USDA finally bumped their production forecasts higher in yesterday’s report and in the case of corn, USDA came in well above expectations with a crop of 91.5 MMT vs 87.7 expected. For soybeans, they came in at 108.0 vs 105.9 expected.


The market seems to be reaching a critical mass as fundamentals are getting more bearish while the technical chart picture is turning decidedly negative. Dec Corn breaking below $3.90 gives a new target of $3.76 from the double-top formation on the charts established from the $4.04 highs. Likewise, Nov beans have a triple top of the $10.33 highs with a close below $10 signalling a move to the $9.70 area.


This morning’s US jobs report showed more bullish news for the economy as 227,000 jobs were added in February. That was well above expectations of 193,000 jobs.


The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

March 09, 2017 | Kevin McNew | Views: 114

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