April 19, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 237

Corn and Soybeans Higher Overnight

Crude Oil continues to find support

Corn and soybeans were higher overnight while wheat gave up some of yesterday’s impressive gains. In outside markets, crude oil continued to find support from a Kuwait oil strike while silver reached its highest mark in a year.

 

After the close Monday, USDA’s crop progress report showed 13% of the corn crop planted versus 4% last week and an expectation of 14%. Wheat condition was also up following beneficial rains in HRW wheat country. The percent of the crop rated good-to-excellent inched higher to 57% versus 56% last week.

 

Weather over the next few weeks continues to favor crop planting. Patchy showers linger in the central Midwest today, scattering into the southwest again tonight/tomorrow and shifting through the Delta/eastern Midwest by Thursday. The heaviest totals occur in the Lower Mississippi Valley, and only minor interruptions are expected to Midwest seeding. Showers scatter into the northern/eastern Midwest again by Sunday/Monday, but broader Midwest/Delta coverage occurs at the middle of next week and again early the following week. While the more active pattern will hinder corn seeding, risks of excessive rain are limited, and fieldwork still occurs in between rain events.

 

In South American weather, the latest model runs show wetter Argentina weather in the coming week although there is no agreement from various models. But, if realized, there would be some additional harvest delays across key summer crop areas. The second week outlook is still looking better for most of Argentina.  In Brazil, there is some potential rain for center west, center south and northeastern Brazil next week.

 

In crude oil, prices continued to be supported from a Kuwait oil workers strike, now in its third day. However, analysts said Kuwait's disruption would likely be brief and investors would soon refocus on the market's oversupply given the failure of major exporters on Sunday to agree to freeze output to avoid worsening the glut.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

April 18, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 264
April 18, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 279

Soybeans Rose for a Sixth out of Seven Sessions

In outside markets, Oil was off sharply

Grains were mixed overnight with soybeans advancing to fresh 8-month highs and wheat also posted positive gains. Corn was flat in early trade. In outside markets, oil was off sharply but recovered from early losses of over a $2 a barrel slide on Sunday following the failed oil minister meeting in Doha.

 

Soybeans rose for a sixth session out of seven, with heavy rains in Argentina raising fears of crop damage. Also, current Brazil President Rousseff suffered a humiliating loss in a crucial impeachment vote in the lower house of Congress on Sunday and is almost certain to be forced from office, which could add more strength to the Brazilian Real. In Argentina, Rosario grains exchange left its soy crop forecast unchanged at 59 million tonnes, saying it would take time to gauge the damage from rains. Rain in Argentina was somewhat restricted during the Friday into Sunday morning period with some welcome drying noted. Rain fell from La Pampa and Buenos Aires to southern Santa Fe and southern Entre Rios. Amounts varied from 0.05 to 0.75 inch most often, although as much as 1.69 inches occurred in southeastern Entre Rios. Rain will move through central and northeastern Argentina today and Monday with some of it heavy from Uruguay and Entre Rios to northeastern Santa Fe and Corrientes. The rain event will become confined to Corrientes, northeastern Santa Fe and eastern Chaco during mid-week this week and showers may linger in the region daily through the weekend.

 

Rainy weather occurred as expected across nearly all of the U.S. hard red winter wheat country. A few counties in the Texas Panhandle did not receive much precipitation. In contrast, rain totals in portions of southern Nebraska, northern to south-central Kansas and areas in central and southwestern Oklahoma to north-central Texas reported 2.00 to more than 5.00 inches.

 

Oil prices pared some of the over 5 percent losses seen in early trade, after the world's largest oil-producing countries failed to strike a deal to freeze output. Some 18 oil-exporting nations, including OPEC members, had gathered in Doha, the capital of Qatar, over the weekend in an attempt to agree to stabilize output at January levels until October 2016. The pact fell apart after Saudi Arabia demanded that Iran join in.

 

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April 13, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 383
April 13, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 384

Grains Continue Their Gravity Defying Moves

US Dollar and Equity Futures are firmly higher to start the day.

Grains were higher in the night-session with soybeans continuing their gravity-defying move to new heights. In outside markets, crude oil was lower while the US dollar and equity futures were firmly higher to start the day.

 

Yesterday’s USDA report provided little new fundamental guidance with USDA lowering US soybean carryout slightly and moving corn carry out higher. Soybeans initially sold off after the report but recovered sharply by the close of trade yesterday, and added to the gains overnight. New-crop Nov soybeans got close to $9.60 a bushel overnight before breaking lower.

 

In South America, Argentine rains (.50 to 1.5”, locally 2.5”) fell across much of the belt in the past 24 hours, with heavier amounts confined to the northern fringes of the belt. Another extensive rain event this weekend will keep harvest progress very slow, with any recovery not likely until a drier pattern sets in during the 11 to 15 day. Heavy rains are limited to the northeast 1/4 of the belt, where localized flooding is possible.  This has helped fuel the soybean rally has the continued strength in the Brazilian Real, although the US dollar is sharply higher this morning bouncing off of recent lows.

 

Grain Hedge Technical Alerts call for a move to May Soybeans of $9.53. Click here to get a 14-day trial of Technical Alerts 

 

In crude oil, API data released yesterday took some of the steam out of the crude market, as the private forecasting group pegged crude stocks up 6.2 million barrel while analysts on average expected only a 1 million barrel build. Crude had also been higher yesterday because of a rumored deal between Saudi Arabia and Russia reached a deal to freeze output ahead of the formal meeting in Quatar this weekend. The deal was supposedly not tied to Iran’s actions of joining the group on freezing output. Today at 9:30 am CDT EIA will release official inventory data, with analysts looking for a 1.85 million barrel build.

 

Grain Hedge Technical Alerts call for a move to May Crude Oil of $40.32. Click here to get a 14-day trial of Technical Alerts

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

April 12, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 360
April 12, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 318

Grains Higher in the Night Session

Crude Oil continues to Show Positive Gains

Grains were higher in the night session with soybeans continuing to take on new highs for this 6-week rally. In outside markets, crude oil continued to show positive gains getting closer to $41 a barrel, with equity futures also moving higher as well.

 

Grain markets will look towards today’s USDA supply and demand report. Most analysts expect incremental changes in ending stocks with old-crop wheat and corn stocks are expected to move higher on weaker exports while soybeans are expected to move lower.

 

On Monday, USDA reported a drop in the US winter wheat condition to 56% versus 59% last week. Corn plantings were pegged at 4% for the first report of the year. This is on par with the 5-year average but faster than last year when 1% of the crop was planted.

 

In international news, Egypt’s GASC tendered for wheat with the lowest offers coming from Ukraine, France & Romania. Japan's Ministry of Agriculture is seeking to buy 127,620 MT of food quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that will close late on Thursday.

 

Crude oil continues to trade above $40 a barrel for the first time since March. Weakness in the US dollar is helping support crude oil prices as is the recent drawdown in crude inventories. A meeting of major oil producers in Doha on April 17 to discuss a freeze in oil output also is being followed closely since it could stabilize prices.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a branch of Foremost Trading LLC and its DBAs (NFA ID: 0307930)

April 11, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 381
April 11, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 327

Grains Sharply Divided in the Overnight

Oil Prices Slipped on Monday

Grains were sharply divided overnight with wheat seeing big losses while soybeans rallied as much as 7 cents before backing off into the break. Corn was weaker as well in the night trade.

 

Soybeans got a lift from a bullish palm oil report Sunday night. Malaysia's palm oil stocks at the end of March fell 13.1% to 1.89 MMT from 2.17 MMT. Exports rose 22.9% to 1.33 MMT tonnes in March. Participants in a Reuters poll expected stockpiles to fall 10.3%t to 1.95 MMT, and exports to rise 12.4% to 1.22 MMT.

 

Wheat came under pressure hitting lows established in early March as forecasts for widespread rains across the U.S. Plains over the weekend eased worries about yield losses. Long-term weather forecasts call for rains in the U.S. Plains. This pattern seems to have strengthened and now heavy rainfall is expected over Saturday and Sunday. Russia's wheat export prices are expected to fall 4% from current levels when the new crop is delivered to the market, IKAR, one of the leading Moscow-based agriculture consultancies, said on Monday. Prices for the new wheat crop with 12.5 percent protein content and for August delivery are quoted by market participants at $176.5 per tonne on a free-on-board (FOB) basis in the Black Sea now, Dmitry Rylko, the head of IKAR, said. The current spot prices are $183 per tonne, he added.

 

Oil prices slipped on Monday after banks dampened hopes that the result of next Sunday's meeting of producers in Qatar aimed at freezing current output levels would improve the current supply-demand balance. Analysts at Goldman Sachs, who expect oil prices to average $35 a barrel in the second quarter, cautioned the outcome of the meeting may end up being bearish for the market. "A production freeze at recent production levels would not accelerate the rebalancing of the oil market as OPEC (excluding Iran) and Russian production levels have this year remained close to our 2016 average annual forecast of 40.5 million bpd," the analysts said.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a branch of Foremost Trading LLC and its DBAs (NFA ID: 0307930)

April 08, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 311

Weekly Cash Comments

Weekly Cash Commentary for week ending 4/08/2016

Grain basis was slightly firmer on the week, but still showing no real movement to the upside. For the week, US average corn basis was up 0.5 cents a bushel, and soybeans up only 0.25 cents a bushel.

 

A late week rally in beans got some uptick in country movement but buyers are keeping basis levels fairly steady with more supplies as planting season will bring a temporary halt to farmer selling. For corn basis, river terminals found some modest strength this week as basis at the Gulf moved 4 cents higher on a recent uptick in export activity. For soybeans, basis was 1-cent higher at the Gulf, which helped lift river terminal basis on the week.

 

End users of corn for ethanol were modestly higher as a group, although there were some notable bids that were up 5 to 10 cents on the week. For soybean plants, basis levels were up 0.5 cents on average with most facilities keeping basis unchanged for the week.  

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a branch of Foremost Trading LLC and its DBAs (NFA ID: 0307930)

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