The decline in crude oil has many traders concerned the selling pressure may spill into the grain complex this Friday.
Attention: Following the Thanksgiving holiday the markets will open at 8:30 CST but close early at 12 CST.
Export sales for wheat were reported within analyst expectations booking 431,500 metric tons which was up 19% week over week. Corn sales beat analyst expectations recording 944,900 metric tons of sales, up 4 percent from last week. Soybeans also beat analyst expectations with net sales of 1,485,400 metric tons which was well above the analyst expectations of between 700,000-1,000,000 metric tons. Soybean sales were up sharply from the previous week which only booked 483,020 metric tons and provides a strong case for steadfast short-term demand.
SovEcon said in some materials prepared for a conference that Russia’s grain crop may fall to 86 million metric tons in 2015 compared to 104 MT produced this year. Dryness has taken its toll on the wheat crop since it was seeded in late August. The dry conditions are forecast to continue into the first part of December.
The European benchmark for oil, Brent Crude, has fallen $6 per barrel to below $72 following the OPEC meeting which decided to keep oil output steady despite the falling prices. The decisions to keep output the same was largely a result of Saudi Arabia which is trying to keep its share of the energy market. Lower prices will force higher priced energy producers to lose share of the market if they are unable to withstand the lower prices in the near term.
Feed &Grain publisher, Arlette Sambs, gives her take on the holidays, planing for bussiness and the state of amerian politics
Whew! What a year.
Now that all of the negative political ads are off every news and entertainment site I visit online, and off my TV and radio, I can concentrate again!
Of course, I’ll be concentrating on hoping they finally get something done. Perhaps I expect too much?
I’ll also be concentrating on work.
Every year from right before Christmas to after the last bowl game on New Year’s day, I have just about every minute of every day scheduled for something – shopping, holiday parties, baking, friends’ houses, relatives’ houses, kids coming home, people at our house, football games to watch. I love it all!
Then, come January 2 (or maybe I’ll wait until January 5) I’ll settle back in at work. And I’ll wonder how the holidays whizzed by so quickly and what challenges we’ll be facing and working to overcome in the 360 days left in 2015.
I wouldn’t miss any minute of the holidays for anything. But it seems more and more, the “work thing” is constantly there, bubbling up. At times it relates to something that didn’t work the way I wanted it to last year. What should we have done differently? Did we see it as a problem soon enough? How do we avoid it in the future?
At other times it will be an idea or a notion or a problem that I know we will need to tackle soon for 2015 to be a success. What did we do that worked? What opportunities do we have that we’re not seeing clearly? How can we shake loose the residue of 2014 and look clearly at 2015?
I guess that’s part of what makes this time of year so hectic. While we just shut the door on last year, we already need to be looking six months – or more – into 2015, jumping on opportunities, fixing problems. It has to be a constant focus if we’re going to grow and succeed.
Maybe that’s the difference between most of us and those whom we elect? We know we have to fix things and fix them now. We know that an unhappy customer is not just one person whose business we might lose (bad enough), but that having one irritated customer could be the first sign that we’re not doing the right thing.
We know we can’t stand still or take for granted any success we’ve had in the market we serve. In business, we can’t afford complacency or laurel-resting or not thinking ahead – and thinking ahead so far it makes our heads hurt.
Taking action now keeps customers happy and keeps fresh ideas and opportunities on the horizon.
Tune in to hear Cody and Kevin discuss how grains closed out the week as well as what to expect in the near future. Cody and Kevin also discuss the world wheat market and how the U.S. dollar index is affecting it.
Cash grain markets found strength as futures prices were down on the week. Both spot and corn bean basis levels posted impressive gains, advancing 5 and 3 cents a bushel, respectively, on the week.
Corn found strength from slow farmer sales as harvest wrapped up as well as underlying demand. Ethanol plants as a group were up 7 cents a bushel with 10 cent gains fairly typical as plants push well above harvest lows. Production at ethanol plants for the week were above last week’s marketing year high coming in at 970,000 barrels per day and sets the year-to-date total at 4% above last year. At river terminals, barge rates fell sharply on the week helping improve basis levels at river markets.
For soybeans, basis levels mostly improved and the falling barge rates helped push basis levels higher there. However, soybean sales were on the light side of expectations with only 483,000 MT of new business as compared to expectations of 700,000 to 1,000,000 MT. For bean plants, basis levels were mostly flat but overall slightly improved with a 2-cent gain. Monthly NOPA crush for October was the strongest on record for soybean crushing, 7 million bushels above estimates.
The grains did not continue their move yesterday's move higher in the overnight, but soybeans chopped around most of the night printing a 7 cent range.
In the overnight session corn traded down 1 ½ cents, soybeans traded up 5 ¾ cents and wheat in Chicago traded down 2 ½ cents. Keep in mind that today is the LAST TRADE FOR DECEMBER OPTIONS.
Precipitation is developing over the Delta region which will likely expand to bring moisture to the eastern two thirds of the grain belt throughout the weekend. The 6-10 day forecasts show drier than normal precipitation throughout the majority of the Midwest. North Dakota and Minnesota look to be wetter in the 6-10 day forecast.
Crop concerns are still minimal in South America other than planting delays in Argentina. Pockets of the country continue to receive precipitation keeping planting pace behind the average pace. About 20% of corn and soybean acres and about 30% of wheat cause some concern about timely planting.
Winter weather in Russia is bringing Rostov on Don water levels to 2.3-2.4 meters, which will stop shipment from that region. This is a shallow draft port with a grain export capacity estimated at 3 million metric tons a year, and typically loads 3,000-5,000 metric ton vessels destined for Mediterranean countries.
Soybean sales lagged expectations providing little support for a continued move higher.
In the overnight session corn increased 2 ¼ cents, soybeans increased 1 ¾ cents and wheat fell 3 cents as we go into the morning pause in trade. Export sales which were released at 7:30 CST caused soybeans to give back most of the gains it had achieved in an overnight bounce.
In this morning’s export sales report, wheat sales fell within market expectations booking 361,700 metric tons, down 13 percent from the previous week. Corn booked 908,700 metric tons, up 80% from last week and beating expectations by a large margin. Expectations for corn sales ranged from 500,000-700,000 metric tons. Soybean sales for 483,000 metric tons disappointed traders with expectations for sales between 700,000-1,000,000 metric tons. Export sales for soybeans fell from the previous week by 55 percent. Soybean Meal sales were strong however with 265,700 metric tons of new sales well over the analyst range of 100,000 metric tons of cancelations to 100,000 tons of new sales.
Ethanol production numbers showed another week of increased production with 970,000 barrels per day reported on Wednesday. Ethanol production improved 24,000 barrels per day compared to last week. Ethanol stocks declined week over week by 370,000 barrels to 17.34 million barrels.
December corn looks to have found some support at $3.62 which also is the 100 day moving average. Strong ethanol numbers yesterday and exceptionally strong export sales this week should help to support corn in today’s trade. Keep in mind that CIF basis at the Gulf has slipped to the lowest levels in three weeks as farmer sales and declining barge rates pressure basis.
The grains are mixed this morning with corn up 1 ¼ cents, soybeans down 3 ¾ cents and wheat in Chicago down 2 ½ cents. Traders should keep an eye on the Informa Economics latest crop estimates scheduled for release at 10:30 AM this morning. Also on the horizon is the USDA Supply and Demand...
In the overnight session the grains traded mixed with corn down 1 cent, soybeans up 2 ¼ cents and wheat up 2 cents going into the morning pause in trade. The Chicago wheat market seems to have held support off $4.96 last Thursday which was the previous low back on February 2nd....
In the overnight the grains traded higher with corn up ¼ of a cent, soybeans up 3 ½ cents and wheat up 6 ¾ cents going into this morning’s pause. Wheat seems to be bouncing higher this morning after holding a major support level of $4.92 ¼ which was the low back on February 2nd. Today is...