January 09, 2018 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 547

Wheat Drops for Fourth Session while Corn Bounces from Lows

Grains Mixed in the Overnight Session

In the overnight session the grains were mixed with March corn up 1 cent, March soybeans down 3 ½ cents, March Chicago wheat down 1 ½ cents and March Hard Red Winter wheat down ¼ cent. HRW wheat has pulled back three days in a row and is trading at the 50 day moving average, an area that should provide some support during today’s trade session. The corn market bounced in the overnight after touching previous lows around $3.55 on the March contract.  

 

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Egypt announced on Tuesday that they will be revising and amending the legislation that allowed the agricultural quarantine authority to reject wheat shipments with even trace amounts of a common grain fungus called ergot. After a year of strict policies which disrupted normal wheat trade the ministry said it will accept wheat which contains .05 percent ergot or lower.

The latest weather models show the Argentina will be mostly hot and dry into the Friday causing stress on the crops. Precipitation is expected over the weekend with showers moving from the southern production areas to the north. The showers are greatly needed and should also be accompanied by cooler temperatures which will provide some relief to the crops. Additional rains in the coming weeks will be necessary to improve the crops conditions.  
 

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January 08, 2018 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 510

E. Midwest Wheat Likely to See Substantial Snow this Weekend to Middle of Next Week

Grains Unchanged to Lower in the Overnight

In the overnight session the grains were unchanged to lower. March corn was unchanged, March soybeans were down 1 ¾ cents, March Chicago wheat is down 3 ¾ cents and Hard Red Winter wheat is down 4 ½ cents. Temperatures this week should be turning warmer across the majority of the U.S giving the winter wheat area a break from potentially damaging conditions.

 

Exporters sell 120,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to Egypt during the 2017/2018 marketing year. Exporters sell 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2017/2018 marketing year. Exporters sell 102,100 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2017/2018 marketing years. -USDA


 

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Argentina is still in need of more consistent and soaking rains. As of the latest report, 87.5 percent of soybeans have been planted and 77.9 percent of corn has been planted. Rainfall on last Thursday helped bring some moisture into Buenos Aires, but not all of the region benefited. The rain event also seemed to do little for the subsoil moisture which remains mostly marginal throughout Buenos Aires, Northern Cordoba and Santa Fe. More moisture will be needed to finish up with planting.    

 

On average across the nation corn basis increased 2 cents for corn and 5 cents for soybeans last week. Severe cold conditions combined with the holiday left some end users looking for more grain on a short term basis. Basis along the Ohio and Mississippi River was strong last week as well with nearly double digit gains for both corn and soybeans. Soybean crushing facilities saw strong gains of 10-15 cents in the eastern corn belt and into the southeast.     

  

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January 05, 2018 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 483

Weekly Cash Commentary

Commentary for Week Ending January 05

Grain basis got a lift early in the week as cold weather helped stymie grain flows. On the week, corn basis was up 2 cents a bushel while soybeans basis climbed 5 cents.

The first trade day of the New Year saw several key facilities in Iowa give producers a dime for quick ship deliveries. But that bump fizzled as dump lines quickly expanded and by mid-week the opportunity had moved back to normal. In beans, a few plants bid it up a bit as the roll happened from Jan to March but those plants also found little reason to keep basis elevated.

On the river markets, it was mostly a strong week especially along the OH River and lower MS River system which saw nearly double-digit gains for corn and bean basis. But by the end of the week, the Saint Louis, MO area was seeing ice and low water conditions which took a hit to spot basis delivery bids.

 

Soy crush facilities were especially strong on the Eastern Cornbelt and down into the Southeast poultry/hog markets. Gains of 10 to 15 cents a bushel were fairly common in these areas.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

January 05, 2018 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 645

Chicago Wheat Futures Set for Third Consecutive Week of Gains

Grains Were Mixed in the Overnight Session

In the overnight session the grains were mixed with March Corn up 1 ¼ cents, March Soybeans up 4 ¾ cents and March Hard Winter Wheat down 1 ¾ cents this morning. March corn found support again along the 20 day moving average during yesterday's trade session.

 

Ethanol production dropped sharply in the latest EIA report to 1.032 million barrels per day from the previous week of 1.090 million barrels per day. This drop was greater than expected and is the first time since this summer that weekly production fell below last years levels for the same weekly period. Despite the decline in production ethanol ending stocks increased this week to 2.619 million barrels from 22.031 million barrels last week. Ethanol stocks are currently 21 percent above last years levels for the same week.

 

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Weekly export sales were disappointing across the board with all grains missing analyst expectations and recording marketing year lows for the period between December 22nd and December 28th. Corn sales were especially disappointing, falling 92 percent from the previous week with just 101,200 metric tons sold. Soybean export sales were down 43 percent week over week with only 554,000 metric tons sold this week.  

 

Weekly Export Sales-

 

 

Actual

Estimated

Wheat - NC

131

225-500

Corn - OC

101

600-900

Soybeans - OC

554

600-900

 

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

January 04, 2018 | Views on the News | Steven Kilger | Views: 646

Looking Forward and Looking Back

Views on the News returns with a look at industry trends in December 2017

Looking Forward and Looking Back

Happy New Year!

 

2018 is upon us and Feed & Grain has a lot planned for the coming year to expand and strengthen the feed manufacturing and grain handling community. We’re starting with the relaunch of Views on the News as a monthly blog. Longtime readers may remember Views on the News in its former rendition, a weekly blog going over the top news stories of the past week. This new iteration will go over the news from the previous month, tying the biggest stories together to form an image of what’s happening in the industry.

 

The news of December 2017 carried some common themes that are indicative of the current business climate:

  1. CHS Closes Three Plants
  2. OSHA and Bartlett Grain Reach Settlement Agreement

  3. CHS Closes South Sioux City, IA, Plant

  4. Explosion at Argentine Grain Port

  5. CHS Elects Directors; 2017 Officer Slate Elected

  6. Alltech Sees High Mycotoxin Levels in 2017 Analysis

  7. NCGA Announces 2017 Yield Contest Winners

  8. ADM Launches New Specialty Feed Additive

  9. Dakotaland Feeds Purchases Diamond W Feeds

  10. Didion Milling, Cambria, WI, Appealing OSHA Fines

Consolidation and streamlining

 

It is no secret that the agriculture neighborhood is shrinking — if not in size then in population. Mega-mergers like Dow-DuPont or the proposed Bayer-Monsanto merger are the most obvious sign of this, but barely a week goes by without a company acquiring, merging or consolidating with another. In December of 2017,  Dakotaland purchased Diamond W Feeds, Nutriad bought out its buyers’ shares in China JV, Cooke Inc. acquired Omega Protein Corporation and ADM sold its Bolivian oilseeds operations.

 

There wasn’t any big news about co-op mergers, a trend that didn’t slow down in 2017, and no real headway made in the Bayer-Monsanto merger. Dow Chemical Company’s sale of a portion of its corn hybrid seed business was part of a deal it struck with regulatory agencies last year in order for the DowDuPont merger to take place.The fallout from that changing landscape deal is still unfolding.

 

Companies both large and small are trying to figure out just how to survive tough economic times in agriculture. CHS Inc.made news by suddenly shutting down three processing plants as it moves out of the soybean protein processing business in an effort to streamline operations. The company hopes to sell the facilities as early as January 2018, but in the meantime, it let go the employees of those facilities.

 

Slowing down for winter

 

With harvest in the rearview mirror and a frigid cold settling in across the Bread Basket, December is a time to reflect on the past year. Year end reports on the highest yields, mycotoxins levels found during the growing season and the 2017/2018 Corn Harvest Quality Reports were all released. Growmark also released its year-end results, with several more expected out in January.  

 

Winter weather has shut down the upper Mississippi River until March 6, and it may cause navigation issues further down as the ice formations narrow usable lanes and drop the water level throughout the river system. But the low river levels also gave the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is an opportunity to remove some of the more dangerous rocks in the Mississippi River that threaten barges when water levels are low.

 

I hope you enjoy the new and improved Views on the News! We’ll be testing and tweaking it over the next few months so Email me anytime, I would love to hear your suggestions, comments and concerns, or let me know you’re seeing other trends in the industry you want to see covered.  Don’t forget to subscribe to Industry Watch, follow us on Twitter or like us on Facebook for all the latest news in the industry.

January 04, 2018 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 485

Wheat Holds On To Most of 2-Day Gains Amid Weather Risks

Grains Lower in the Overnight Session

In the overnight session the grains were lower with March corn down ¾ of a cent, March Soybeans down 2 ¼ cents and March Hard Winter wheat down 2 ¾ cents. March Chicago wheat is finding resistance at its 50 day moving average at $4.34 per bushel.

 

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The weather models show that Argentina my see precipitation starting in the south and moving north later today and into Saturday. The precipitation will not be widespread, but will provide pockets of relief to the dry conditions developing in the southern part of the country.

 

The rally in wheat has lifted prices to a six week high, but the damage on the crop from the sub-zero temperatures will be hard to measure at this stage. Damage will be more clear in the spring when winter wheat crops emerge from dormancy, and it may be difficult for a sustained rally in the commodity unless weather conditions continue to threaten winter wheat crop conditions. Temperatures are colder than normal on the eastern half of the US and are expected to stay that way until Sunday for the states west of MN, IA and MO. By Monday IL, IN and OH temperatures will retreat from their seasonally colder than normal temperatures.  

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

January 03, 2018 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 547

Soybeans Up for Third Straight Session

Grains Trade Higher in the Overnight Session

In the overnight session the grains traded higher with March corn up 1 cent, March soybeans up 4 ¾ cents and March Hard Winter Wheat up 3 ¾ cents on talks of dryness in Buenos Aires and fiercely cold temperatures combined with minimal snow cover threatening Winter Wheat conditions in the plains.

 

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Buenos Aires received very little moisture over the weekend and is expected to remain dry throughout this week. Temperatures in the region could climb to 100 degrees Fahrenheit throughout the week which will continue to dry the topsoil and evaporate any minor precipitation expected this week. According to the latest Weekly Agricultural Report released by the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, soybeans are 81.9 percent planted and corn is 70.2 percent planted.   

Weekly corn export inspections were 683,898 metric tons which were in line with trade expectations. Soybean also met analyst expectations with 1.139 million metric tons inspected for export. Wheat inspections missed analyst estimates with only 274,506 metric tons inspected compared to 300,000 to 600,000 metric tons expected this week.  

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

January 02, 2018 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 787

Corn, Wheat and Soybeans Up This Morning

USDA to Release Fats and Oils Today

In the overnight session the grains are trading mixed with March corn down 1 cent, March soybeans down 5 ¾ cents and March Chicago wheat down ½ cent. Wheat prices have held their gains since December 13th as cold weather threatened the dormant winter wheat crop with below zero temperatures over the New Year’s holiday.

 

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Precipitation over the new year has brought moisture to the north-western and west central parts of Argentina with rain totals measuring from 1 to 2 inches in Cordoba and .8 to 3.66 inches in Santiago Del Estero. On the other side of the country, Buenos Aires has received very little moisture over the last few weeks and recent hot temperatures have depleted soil moisture in the region. Although the recent rains helped the northern part of Argentina, the southern part of the country is now at risk of dryness impacting crop production. Precipitation throughout Buenos Aires will need to be monitored closely in the coming weeks.

 

The USDA is scheduled to release their Fats and Oils: Oilseed Crushings, Production, Consumption and Stocks report today at 2 PM CST. Analysts are expecting for the report to show  that 174.1 million bushels of soybeans were processed in November, down slightly from 175.9 million bushels processed in October. Analysts are expecting soy oil stocks to be around 1.737 billion pounds, up from 1.626 billion pounds in October.    


 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

December 29, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 929

Export Sales on the High Side of Expectations

Grains were Mixed in the Overnight Session

In the overnight session the grains were mixed with March corn down 1 ½ cents, March soybeans up 1 ½ cents and March wheat down 1 ¼ cents. Soybeans wiped away all the gains in the previous session and pushed through the December 22nd low.

 

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Ethanol production increased from last week to the second highest level on record, moving from from 1.077 Million barrels per day to 1.090 million barrels per day. Ethanol production continues to run at a breakneck pace and ahead of the USDA’s corn used for ethanol estimates. Ethanol stocks declined a bit last week to 22.031 million barrels from 22.320 million barrels the week before. Despite the weekly decline, ethanol stocks are still ahead of last years levels on a same week basis.    

 

Following the blast that killed one and left others injured, grain inspectors and crushers called a 48 hour strike throughout Argentina on Thursday. The strike was widespread and organized by the URGARA labor union and included facilities on the Timbues, San Lorenzo and General San Martin.

  

Export sales were on the high side of expectations this week for both corn and wheat. Wheat sales were down from last week but in line with the four week average. Corn sales declined 20 percent from the previous week, but beat analyst expectations. Soybean sales were also down 44 percent from the previous week and had sales on the low range of analyst expectations.  

 

Weekly Export Sales-

 

Actual

Estimated

Wheat - NC

478

250-550

Corn - OC

1,245

600-1,100

Soybeans - OC

974

800-1,500

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

December 28, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 610

Grains Trade Lower in the Overnight Session

The US Dollar Weakened, Providing Support for the Grains

In the overnight session the grains traded lower with March corn down 1 cent, January Soybeans down 2 ½ cents and March Chicago wheat down 1 ¼ cents. The U.S Dollar weakened, providing some support for the grains.

 

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Wheat was able to make up most of the ground lost over the last couple trading sessions on fears of colder than normal weather threatening dormant wheat throughout Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. The lack of snow cover in those regions has the Winter Wheat crop somewhat vulnerable. The cold weather has provided a few basis opportunities as end users narrow their basis to entice farmers to deliver grain during a colder than normal holiday season.

Egypt purchased 180,000 metric tons of wheat in a tender on Wednesday where no U.S. wheat was offered. Offers only consisted of Russian wheat that was accepted for roughly $192.35 to 194.90 per metric ton FOB.

 

Yesterday an explosion at a COFCO grain terminal in Argentina killed one employee and left others injured. The cause of the explosion is not known, but the facility involved was shut down. The terminal is in Santa Fe Province on the Parana River.   


 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

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