October 05, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 317
October 05, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 282

Corn and Wheat Drift Lower in the Overnight

Crude Oil up $1 a Barrel

Grains were mixed overnight as corn and wheat drifted lower while soybeans posted modest gains. Crude oil was up about a $1 a barrel with its sights on the $50 a barrel mark.

 

In wheat news, Egypt’s GASC bought 240,000 MT of Russian wheat yesterday. This tender found 9 different offers all from Russia and Romania. Overnight, Jordan announced that they were canceling their tender to buy 100,000 MT of wheat but a government official stated they would re-tender for the same amount.

 

There were rains in parts of the Western Cornbelt in the past day with more rains expected into Friday morning. Overall there is little risk to slowing harvest and the outlook beyond next week looks dry.

The US dollar dipped this morning after ADP said U.S. companies hired fewer workers than analysts forecast in September, raising doubts about job gains in the government's payrolls report due later this week. Later this morning EIA will release new crude and gas inventory data Yesterday, private firm API showed a high draw down of 7.6 million barrels of oil despite expert predictions that U.S. supplies would increase by 1.5 million barrels in the wake of multiple draw weeks.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

October 04, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 354
October 04, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 305

Grains Mostly Lower in the Overnight Led by Soybeans

US Dollar Surges

Grains were mostly lower led by soybeans which gave up 5 of its 20-cent advance from Monday. In outside markets, the US dollar surged 0.6% while crude oil was sharply lower to start the day.

 

On Monday, USDA reported that the US corn harvest was 24% complete while soybeans were 26% harvested. This was inline with expectations of 25% but slightly off of the 5-year average which is 27% for both commodities. Also on Monday after the close, FC Stone released survey results which show a US corn crop of 15.163 billion bushels on a yield of 175.2, and soybean production of 4.357 on a yield of 52.5. USDA’s latest forecast is 15.093 billion and 174.4 for corn while soybeans are pegged at 4,201 billion and 50.6.

 

Also on Monday USDA’s monthly report on oilseed crushings came in at 140.6 MB of soybeans were processed in August, just slightly below 141.0 MB . The range of analyst estimates was 140.0-141.9 MB.

 

Argentina will not reduce soy export taxes this year or in 2017 as previously announced and will instead reduce the tax by 0.5 percentage points per month from January 2018 to December 2019, President Mauricio Macri said on Monday. Shortly after taking office in December, Macri eliminated corn and wheat export taxes as part of his plan to stimulate the farm economy. He cut the export tax on soy, the country's main cash crop, from 35% to 30%, and the government had planned further cuts beginning this year.

The US dollar gained strength overnight as the British pound hit a 31-year low against the greenback. The sterling is suffering from a “horrible combination” of Brexit anxieties and a resurgent Dollar, prompting traders into waves of selling.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)


 

October 03, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 302
October 03, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 215

Limited Movement in the Overnight

Crude Oil Remains in Positive Territory

Grains were mixed overnight with limited movement in the complex to start the day. In outside markets, equity futures were drifting lower into the opening bell while crude oil was in positive territory.

 

Weekend showers in the Eastern Cornbelt and Mid-Atlantic slowed fieldwork, but drier next 10 days should help move along the harvest pace. Rains are expected to start Tuesday and persist for several days in the Western Cornbelt.  

 

The European Commission on Monday cut its estimate of usable maize production in the European Union this season to 59.7 million tonnes from 62.5 million seen a month ago. The revised forecast for the ongoing maize harvest was still above 58.0 million tonnes produced in last year's drought-hit harvest, data published by the Commission showed. The EU's executive raised its estimate of 2016 usable soft wheat production 134.2 million tonnes from 133.3 million previously, although this remained well below a record 2015 crop of 151.6 million.

 

The USDA’s monthly report on oilseed crushings will likely show about 4.231 million short tons, or 141.0 million bushels of soybeans were processed in August. The range of analyst estimates was 140.0-141.9 MB The report will be released after the market close at 2 PM CDT.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

September 30, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 350
September 30, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 261

Weekly Cash Comments

Weekly Cash Commentary for week ending 09/30/2016

The cash market saw loses yet again this week with soybeans getting hit especially hard.

 

Corn continues to hold up as unseasonably strong export movement is holding basis up for the time being. On average corn saw basis losses of 1 1/4 cents per bushel. Ethanol plants are holding strong as well only off 1 cent. River facilities were the biggest loser in the corn market this week losing 3 1/2 cents.

 

Soybeans were off an average of 9 1/4 cents being heavily weighed down by crush facilities and river terminals. Crush facilities saw losses of 12 cents moving even lower from last week’s 23 cent drop. River terminals were hit the hardest this week off 22 3/4 cents per bushel. Potentially adding more pressure was the closure of three Mississippi River locks in southern Iowa and northern Missouri earlier in the week.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)


September 30, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 318

USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks Report to be Released Today at 11 CDT

Grains Start the Day on the Downside

Grains moved to the downside to start the day as traders await fresh news from USDA’s quarterly grain stocks report this morning. In outside markets, crude oil slipped slightly taking a breather from the $3 a barrel rally in recent days while the US dollar surged.

 

China announced they will approve corn export permits for two state-owned companies. China’s corn exports would be a first in a decade as the government looks to reduce massive stockpiles.

 

Ukraine's agriculture ministry and traders have agreed to export 16.5 million tonnes of wheat in the 2016-17 July-June season, news agency Unian quoted the agriculture minister as saying on Friday. The exports break down as 60 percent food wheat and 40 percent feed wheat, Unian said.
Ukraine and grain traders sign a memorandum each year in which the government promises to impose no restrictions on an agreed volume of grain and keep the export rules unchanged.
 

USDA’s quarterly stocks report is expected to show 1,754 MB of corn, 201 MB of soybeans and 2,397 MB of wheat on hand as of Sept 1. The report will be released at 11 am CDT. Also, USDA will have a wheat production estimate, which traders expect to show 2,323 MB of wheat produced in 2016.

This morning more economic data showed consumer spending and consumption in the US to be weaker than expected for the month of August. This helped deflate the US dollar off its overnight highs heading into the morning trade session.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

September 29, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | | Views: 351

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