What You Need to Know for Thursday’s WASDE Report
Analysts are expecting some adjustments in ending stocks in this month’s WASDE report following the quarterly grain stocks report released late last month.
In the overnight session the grains traded slightly higher with corn up 1/2 a cent, wheat up 1 3/4 of a cent and wheat up 1/2 a penny. The market will be receiving the EIA ethanol production numbers today and the monthly WASDE report will be released on April 9th at 11 AM CST.
The average analyst expectations for the WASDE report according to a Reuters poll of 20 analysts is as follows. The average guess among the analysts polled for wheat ending stocks is 692 million bushels, up one million bushels from the March report. Corn ending stocks are expected to be reported at 1.854 billion bushels up from 1.777 billion bushels reported in the March WASDE report. Soybean ending stocks are expected to come in around 370 million bushels which would be a decline of 15 million bushels from the March report.
Traders will also be following South American production which is wrapping up harvest in many areas. Argentina corn production is expected to be revised slightly higher than in March to 23.90 million metric tons from 23.50. Argentina soybean production is also expected to increase to 57.23 million metric tons from 56 last month. Brazil production is expected to be revised slightly lower than March with corn production expected to decline to 74.82 million metric tons from 75.00 in March. Soybean production is also expected to decline to 94.18 million metric tons from 94.5 in March.
Across the Midwest rains will be keeping producers out of the fields through the end of the week. Precipitation will be focused on the northwestern part of the Midwest early on and shift to the central and southeastern part by weeks end. Rains will continue to halt planting along the Mississippi river delta.
Cody discusses the future of wheat prices, tariffs, and gives and overview of Thursday's WASDE expectations.
Grains Slip Lower in the Overnight
The grains slip lower in the overnight with increased prospects for precipitation in the southern plains
In the overnight session, the grains traded lower with corn down 1/2a cent, soybeans down 3 cents and wheat down 5 1/4 cents. Exporters reported a new crop sale of 165,000 metric tons to China early this morning. In a tender closing on Thursday, Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture is seeking 122,429 metric tons of food quality wheat from the U.S, Canada and Australia.
Wheat continues to pull back this morning after forecasts show chances of rain in the southern plains in the 6-15 day outlook. Temperatures will remain unseasonably hot with highs in the 80’s and 90’s over the next couple days throughout the southern plains which will continue to stress the wheat crop.
Yesterday, corn inspections outperformed by recording 1,027,876 metric tons inspected for export compared to expectations of between 700,000-850,000 metric tons. Both wheat and soybeans recorded export inspections within the range of expectations. Wheat recorded 370,086 metric tons, while soybeans recording 564,823 metric tons inspected for export this week.
After the market close on Monday, the USDA released their crop progress report with country level winter wheat conditions. Until now analysts have been using state level crop conditions which are typically released on a monthly basis. In yesterday’s report, 44 percent of the winter wheat crop was rated good to excellent, compared to last year at the same time when only 35 percent of the crop was rated good to excellent. Analysts were expecting winter wheat rated good to excellent to be around 42 percent.
Grain TV: April 6 2015
Wheat Higher on Continued Drought Concerns
The grains are mixed this morning with the exception of wheat which continues to move higher on concerns of intensifying drought across the plains.
In the overnight session the grains were mixed. Corn is trading up 1 1/2 cents, soybeans are unchanged and wheat is up 4 1/4 cents this morning on talks of extended Russian export taxes and expanding drought throughout the plains. At 2 PM CST the USDA will issue its first crop progress report which will provide a national winter wheat crop rating.
On Thursday April 2nd the latest drought monitor showed the plains has gotten drier, leaving nearly 36 percent of the plains in moderate to exceptional drought. Kansas wheat rated good to excellent has slipped 5 percent over the last month to 39 percent good to excellent. In the 6-10 day outlook the central and southern plains expected to continue receiving warmer than normal temperatures. With temperatures hitting 90 degrees in Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas this early there is a lot of concern for next year’s crop. Wheat is breaking dormancy right into a drought that is intensifying throughout the plains, causing traders to question short positions as uncertainty grows about next year’s wheat crop.
The wheat is also supported this morning by speculation that Russia may extend a tax on wheat exports beyond this marketing year that ends on July 1st. Wheat in Ukraine and Russia received widespread rain over the weekend, accumulating .25-1.5 inches of rain over the past four days leaving only 15 percent of Russian wheat lacking adequate moisture.
Ukraine farmers have now planted 1.6 million hectares this spring which is 69 percent of the expected plantings. Of the area planted 1.2 million hectares went to barley, 111,000 hectares went to spring wheat, 149,000 hectares went to oats and 141,000 hectares went to peas. Ukraine’s harvest is expected to decline this year to 53 million metric tons of grain.
Corn Research is Complex, Fast-paced and Promising
New generations are available faster; new techniques focus on external control, rather than gene modification
Corn research and development is continually evolving in a complex, fast-paced and challenging environment. Corn breeders are using a broad range of techniques ranging from time-honored traditional plant breeding practices amplified by powerful tools such as biostatistical analysis to developing new approaches such as external applications of genetic materials for weed, insect and virus control.
Tom Koch, vice president of research for AgReliant Genetics gave attendees at the 119th annual convention of the National Grain and Feed Association a feel for the challenges and opportunities facing the seed industry.
Seed corn is produced globally. “There is world-wide diversity that we are tapping into now more than ever,” Koch says. “A lot of this diversity is getting locked up, as countries view their germ plasm as a national treasure.
“Where we do have access to use germ plasm, it’s bringing some very interesting and unique flavor to the U.S. market.”
He says that with new molecular analysis techniques, there will be more of a smorgasbord of hybrids for companies to offer.
Koch says his company, whose U.S. corn brands include AgriGold and LG Seeds, uses one of the most advanced and efficient forms of double haploid (DH) breeding technology to make new varieties ready for market much faster. “In three generations, this creates an instant homozygous line; traditionally, it has taken size or seven generations to get a true breeding line.”
GMO regulations have made corn breeding more complicated. Koch explained that many countries that don’t allow GM production by their farmers may allow production of GM seed, as long as it’s exported.
He cites Chile, as an example, where an AgReliant production facility is 30 miles south of Peru, where GMOs are forbidden. “We have to be very cautious about how we manage GM production,” he says.
Koch sees little change on the horizon regarding regional acceptance of current GM crops, notably Europe.
“But I think we are about ready to move past this current era and move into the next biotech sector, where we are not necessarily inserting genes into the plants,” he says.
These new practices include putting genetic materials – referred to as biological or biopesticides – into the crop protectant spray. “The biological is applied outside of the plant. They don’t have to modify the plant itself. This has been done with seed treatments; now researchers are looking at doing it more on plants.”
From a plant breeder’s standpoint, Koch says this is exciting. “Working with a spray instead of the plant itself puts the plant breeder back in control of the genetics, instead of the biotechnician.”
He says of the 300,000 genes plant breeders manage, just 8 genes control the herbicide resistance. Without dealing with them, and the extensive regulatory cost and time they demand, more attention can go to overall improved genetics.
These sprays and biological seed treatments will be a very heavy area of research, he says. Regulatory challenges will be part of the puzzle, as to determining what specifically constitutes genetically modified in these types of scenarios.
Koch also shared his enthusiasm for the potential of airborne drones. With them, he sees the ability to quickly and accurately analyze virtually every plant in a test plot for a wide range of agronomic variables, once the current questions by the Federal Aviation Agency regarding the commercial application of drones are resolved.
And, he says practices such as indirect selection accuracy and multi-trait genomic selection allows much faster and more accurate analysis of new lines of hybrids. Speed is valuable, considering that each new generation of a corn line is expected to deliver an increase in yield.
“Basically we’re trying to get more, test more, test it better, get new genetics and get better homogenous lines while decreasing the cycle length using many different techniques,” he says.
Grain TV: Export Sales Report
Cody looks at the move higher for corn and wheat. He also breaks down the disappointing export sales numbers and dryness in the plains region.
Grains lower on soft export sales
The grains turned lower in the overnight as the weekly export sales report revealed weaker than expected sales.
In the overnight session the grains traded lower with corn down 2 1/4 cents, soybeans down 8 cents and wheat down 3 cents. The Dollar is trading a bit lower this morning with crude oil off over a dollar a barrel. On Thursday the Saudi Arabia’s state grains authority issued a large international tender to purchase 715,000 metric tons of hard wheat for delivery between June to August. A reportable sale of new crop soybeans was reported for 118,000 metric tons to unknown destinations this morning.
Export sales were disappointing across the grain complex this morning. Wheat sales were on the low end of expectations which only booked 162,100 metric tons compared to expectations between 100,000-300,000 metric tons. Corn sales fell 7 percent week over week booking 406,000 metric tons which was on the low side of expectations which ranged between 400,000-500,000 metric tons. Soybeans only booked 27,400 metric tons this week which was down 95 percent from last week and way below analyst expectations which ranged between 150,000-300,000 metric tons. Analysts have been expecting soybean export sales to start tapering off as the newly harvested South American crop becomes more competitively priced on the global market.
On Wednesday the EIA ethanol production data showed that output slid 1,000 barrels per day to 952,000 BPD. Ethanol production typically trends higher from February through May but we have not yet observed a notable increase in production during that time frame. Ethanol stocks also fell 770,000 barrels to 20.55 million barrels.
In South America the Bueno’s Aires Grain Exchange increased their Argentina soybean production estimate to 58.5 million metric tons from 57 million metric tons, citing higher than expected yields as the reason for the increase. Port workers were into the second day of strike on Wednesday with more protests being threatened next week.
Grain TV: Grains Rebound
After yesterday's bullish market Cody looks at the signs of a continued rebound.
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