USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum shows lower soybean acreage
The USDA's Ag Outlook Forum lowered soybean acreage from 2014, will this lift soybeans?
In the overnight session corn traded down a penny, soybeans increased 5 cents and wheat fell 1 ¼ cents by the pause in trading. Corn is currently trading at $3.82 which is right on its 100 day moving average. Soybeans 100 day moving average hangs over prices at $10.07.
The USDA Ag Outlook Forum begins today and continues through Friday the 20th. Traders were watching the release of acreage estimates this morning which showed corn at 89 million acres planted from 90.6 million acres planted last year. The USDA projected soybean acres at 83.5 million acres from 83.7 million acres planted in 2015. Soybean acres were a bit of a surprise to traders who were expecting acreage to increase year over year. Informa’s latest soybean acreage forecast for 2015 was 88.03. Planted acreage for U.S. wheat estimated to decline 1.3 million acres.
Egypt canceled a tender for U.S. wheat on Wednesday citing that prices were exaggerated after Cargill, Bunge, Ameropa and Invivo made offers for 60,000 metric tons of soft red winter wheat. Egypt stated that it had hoped to buy American wheat but will now seek other origins with better prices. GASC then issued a tender for 55,000-60,000 metric tons and opened the tender global suppliers.
Rocky Day for the Grains
Egypt rejects all tenders for U.S. wheat only. There was strong feed usage this past week, Kevin discusses if this will last.
Can Soybeans Continue Higher?
The grains are trading slightly lower this morning after a positive day yesterday. Cold weather throughout the Midwest and an Egyptian tender has provided a bid under wheat.
In the overnight session corn traded down 2 ¼ cents, soybeans slipped 2 cents and wheat increased 1 ¾ of a cent. Be careful of soybeans hitting resistance during today’s trading session. We are currently trading near resistance from the lows of the soybeans channel that lasted from October through January. Though we could get continuation buying early on in the session, be careful of some selling pressure at these levels.
NOPA crush numbers were within analyst expectations for the month of January. In the report released at 11 AM CST, the National Oilseed Processors Association announced that 162.675 million bushels of soybeans were crushed in January compared to expectations of 162.673 million bushels. This month’s soybean crush was the largest ever in January topping last year’s January total of 156.943. Soyoil stocks were larger than expected at 1.228 billion pounds compared to expectations of 1.170 billion pounds.
Egypt has set a tender on Tuesday to buy an unspecified amount of U.S. origin wheat for April delivery. A tender from GASC has been expected to purchase U.S. wheat over recent weeks to take advantage of a 100 million dollar credit line provided by the United States.
Government farm office, FranceAgrimer, lifted its French wheat export estimates by 1 MMT for 14/15 for outside the EU to 9.8 and cut ending stock to 3.63 MMT from 4.34 MMT last month. EU wheat exports have picked up significant pace in response to the Russian export curbs. In the latest USDA supply and demand report EU exports were also revised 1 MMT higher from the previous month.
Cold weather is expected to enter the Midwest and continue into Friday. Although there is snow cover throughout much of the Midwest, around 10-15 percent of dormant wheat remains at risk of winterkill. The most vulnerable areas are through Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. Some snow is expected this weekend to help avert future cold snaps.
Strong Day for Beans
Cody and Kevin look at Export Inspections and NOPA crush numbers for answers to today's move higher.
Grains Sharply Higher Following a Long Weekend.
The grain markets rallied in the overnight session ahead of the NOPA crush report which is scheduled to be released later today.
The grains are trading higher this morning with corn up 2 ¼ cents, soybeans up 8 cents and wheat trading up a sharp 9 cents higher.
NOPA Soybean crush data is scheduled at 11 AM CST today. Analysts are expecting 162.673 million bushels which would be a decline from last month’s figures of 165.3 million bushels, but up from last year’s January crush figures of 156.943 million bushels.
Another cold front is expected later this week with lows near -5 degrees Fahrenheit. Although most of the winter wheat belt has sufficient snow cover to help protect the dormant crop, a soft winter wheat region from Central Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and down into Northern Missouri lacks snow cover to protect a crop from the freezing temperatures.
South America’s weather forecast shows that more rain is on the way this week which will slow the pace of harvest and fieldwork. Brazil saw rain in all but the north eastern growing region over the weekend and expects more showers to interrupt fieldwork in the 11-15 day forecast. Argentina’s weather outlook has turned wetter in the 6-10 day forecast.
Japan is seeking to buy 101,128 tonnes of food quality wheat from the United States and Australia. The tender will close late on Thursday.
NOPA Expectations and Basis Report
Kevin and Cody go over Tuesday's NOPA crush report expectations as well as the change in US basis over the last week
Weekly Cash Comments
Cash Commentary for week of 13 February 2015
Grain markets were mostly quiet this week with corn and soybean futures showing little directional bias. In the cash market, basis continued to firm with US average corn basis up 2 cents while soybeans were up 3 cents a bushel.
In corn, ethanol plants continue to show less basis strength then other areas as the outlook for ethanol is clouded by falling energy prices. For the week, average basis levels improved less than 1 cent a bushel at ethanol plants. For river terminals, basis levels came under modest pressure as Gulf export basis lost 3 cents on the week. However, river terminals as a group still managed a modest half-cent a bushel gain. Weekly corn export sales of 1,000,000 MT were positive and with 17.2 MMT of corn outstanding to be shipped, the 2nd largest total for this time of year in the past 10 years, river terminals will likely need to keep their bids strong to draw gain out of reluctant farmer hands.
For soybeans, basis at the Gulf was unchanged this week but river terminals bid up basis to nearly 4 cents higher than the previous week. Export movement continues to be brisk although weekly new sales and cumulative outstanding sales are starting to slip. At crush facilities, facilities, basis levels were up 3 cents a bushel on average for the week.
Markets Prep for Long Weekend
The markets are trading higher Friday morning as traders eye a three day weekend followed by NOPA crush numbers released on Tuesday the 17th.
In the overnight session the grains are trading higher with corn up 1 ½ cents, soybeans up 7 ¼ cents and wheat up 4 ½ cents going into the morning pause in trade. This morning it was announced that 110,000 metric tons of new crop soybeans was sold to China. The market will be closed on Monday and reopen at 7 PM CST on the 16th.
The market is awaiting the NOPA crush numbers on Tuesday which are expected to decline from last month’s report to 162.673 million bushels in January. This would be a sharp increase from January 2014 crush numbers which were 156.943 million bushels. Soyoil stocks are expected to come in at 1.170 billion pounds in the Tuesday report, up from 1.067 billion pounds the previous report.
In its first corn production estimate of the season Buenos Aires Grain Exchange is expecting to see 2014/15 corn production Argentina to come in at 22.3 million metric tons. This is slightly below both the USDA and the Rosario Grain Exchange which expects to see Argentina corn production at 23 MMT and 23.5 MMT respectively.
The Russian Agriculture Ministry said in a statement on Thursday that Egypt cannot be exempt from the export tax according to Russian Law.
Export Sales Released Earlier Today
Cody and Kevin break down corn basis and the export sales numbers.
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Weekly Cash Comments
Corn continued to find selling pressure in the futures market this week giving up 8 cents a bushel, while soybeans were unchanged for the week. For cash markets, corn basis posted a modest 1-cent advance on average across the US while soybeans were unchanged on the week.[Read More]
Grains Mixed Headed into Friday
In the overnight session the grains are mostly steady with corn down 1/4 of a penny, soybeans off a half penny and wheat up 1 1/4 cents. The U.S. dollar is up a fraction of a percent and crude oil has fallen 18 cents.
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Unexpected Export Sales Report
Surprising Export Sales
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