June 30, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 349
June 30, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 285

USDA Report out Today at 11 a.m.

Crude Oil was off sharply in the Overnight Session

Grains were mostly quiet overnight awaiting direction from USDA’s reports out at 11 am CDT today. In outside markets, crude oil was off sharply, but equities and the US dollar had modest losses going into the morning session.

 

Traders will be watching the stocks and acreage figures from USDA later this morning for guidance. Analysts’ averages suggest a decline in corn acres by 700,000 acres over USDA’s official March estimate while soybean acres are expected to climb 1.6 million.

 

This morning, Stats Canada said farmers there would plant 23.2 million acres of wheat, off from last year’s plantings of 24.1. For canola, farmers are expected to hold steady on the year, planting 20.0 million acres versus 20.1 last year.

 

Also this morning, USDA released a flash sale announcement of 120,400 MT of corn that was sold to Mexico  for 2016/17 and 2017/18 crop years. Weekly sales were disappointing for corn, but robust for soybeans and wheat.


WEEKLY EXPORT SALES

 

                     Act-OC       Exp-OC         Act-NC        Exp-NC

Corn                 468       700-1,000          536         300-450

Soybeans          730         500-800           798         600-800

Wheat                                                   645         300-600

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

June 29, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 348

Soybeans Retreat in the Overnight

Grains were mixed to close the Overnight Session with Corn and Beans trading lower

The grains were mixed to close the overnight with corn and soybeans trading lower and the wheats up a little more than a penny.


In overnight news, Romania is on track for another record year of wheat production 8.28 million tonnes. This is 4.5 percent higher than a record set just last year.

U.S. soybeans fell on Wednesday, retreating from Tuesday's one-week high on expectations the USDA will estimate U.S. farmers have increased soybean sowings for this year's crop.  Corn was supported by the view that U.S. farmers may have reduced corn sowings to switch into soybeans and by concern that expected hot weather could stress U.S. crops. Wheat recovered on buying interest after recent weakness.

Mexico is primed to overtake Japan as the single largest U.S. corn importer, knocking Tokyo from the perch it has occupied since the mid-1980s and taking the top spot for the first time ever. Despite a three-month buying flurry, Japan remains on pace to buy its second-smallest U.S. corn volume since at least 1999.

The 6-10 day weather outlook continues to trend warmer. However, there are chances that there will be a wetter holiday weekend with scattered rains in spots throughout Kansas, Missouri, and southern Illinois. The 16 to 30 day rains are forecast to favor the northwest Midwest, with the northeast 1/3 of the corn belt at most risk for heat/moisture stress to pollinating corn in late July.
 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

June 28, 2016 | | Views: 431
June 28, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 293

Grains Turn Higher Overnight

Outside markets are also reversing course

Grains turned higher overnight and finished the morning trade solidly higher. Outside markets were also reversing course from the two-day hammering they took post-Brexit.

 

On Monday after the close, USDA’s crop progress report showed the US corn crop holding firm at 75% good-to-excellent, unchanged from last week, while soybean conditions slipped to 72% this week versus 73% last week. Winter wheat harvest was speeding along with 45% of the crop cut versus 25% last week.

 

In overnight news, Egypt said they had enough wheat in their strategic reserves to last until January 2017 and that they have bought 5 MMT from local farmers, more than the 4 MMT they expected to get this season.

 

For weather, the 6 to 15 day has trended warmer, with mid 90s or better mainly focusing on the Plains, Delta, and southwest Midwest. Some models are looking for 100s late in the 6 to 10 day into the heart of the corn belt but other models don't. Longer-term forecasts out a month show warm weather in the corn belt, with the biggest risks in the northeast 1/3 of the belt.

 

U.S. stock index futures rose sharply on Tuesday as investors rushed to pick up Brexit-hit stocks after Wall Street crumbled under fear and uncertainty to its worst two-day fall in 10 months. Crude oil was also up sharply trying to recover from steep losses while the US dollar reversed course to trade lower.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

June 27, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 439
June 27, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 423

Grains Higher in Early Morning Trade

Active trading still being tied to the Brexit Vote

Grains were higher in early morning trade on Monday with soybeans leading the complex higher on a 20 cent advance. In outside markets, active trading was still being tied to the outcome of the Brexit votes as the US dollar shot higher while equities and crude oil were lower.

 

Soybeans were catching up to other grains which were able to find some bounceback on Friday. Soybeans in particular have faced the biggest brunt of the selloff last week. This morning USDA announced a flash of 150,000 MT of soybeans to unknown destinations with 132,000 going for old-crop delivery.

 

In the weather, the corn belt is looking at temperatures in the high eighties today with  little chance of rain until Wednesday.  But, the current 6 to 14 day outlooks shows normal to below normal temperatures while precipitation forecasts show above averages chances for rain throughout much of the Midwest for this time period.

 

Crude oil prices fell sharply lower on Monday and is closing to testing support levels at the $46.30 mark. Strength in the US Dollar combined with potential economic weakness caused by the Brexit fallout continue to be catalyst for the selloff.

 

With results of the Brexit vote the sterling continues to slump as does, European stocks, S&P 500 Futures and the Dow Jones. The bank of England has said that they will step up and inject 250 BIllion Pounds (330 Billion USD) in order to support the financial system. The bank of England also stated that this was not the only additional measure available.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

June 24, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 432

Weekly Cash Comments

Weekly Cash Commentary for week ending 6/23/2016

Corn basis was up this week by just under a cent. Soybeans saw an increase in basis to just over 3 cents as grain slumped throughout the week.

 

Corn basis along the river was up a cent and a half per bushel. A slight improvement considering last week's lower than expected exports report.  Ethanol also made a modest improvement this week and was up nearly a cent and a half.

 

Soybean basis in the river and along the Gulf saw the most movement from last week, up almost 10 cents a bushel. This was followed by a two and a half cent increase in soybean basis. Plant basis was off a half a cent .

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID 0307930)

June 24, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 275

Grains Off Substantially

Regardless of the Brexit, some European markets are appearing steady.

Grains were off substantially as we see improving crop conditions and flight from risky investments following the Brexit results.

 

The corn belt is looking at temperature in the high eighties low nineties and partly cloudy but precipitation expected. Further south, parts of Kansas are expected to see rain today and scattered thunderstorms and temperatures in the high eighties.

 

Brazil cuts 700,000 tonnes from corn view after heavy frosts. However, analysts still expect a large crop around 50 million tonnes.

 

Following the UK’s leave from the EU, we are seeing surges in the gold market up 5 percent, after rising as much as 8.2 percent. The strongest it’s been since March 2014. Oil sharply fell, down 5 percent. Sterling prices are at a 31 year low and the pound reached a 30 year low.

 

Regardless of the Brexit, some European markets are appearing steady. With Euronext wheat now up 0.25 euro. Also, Russia is planning to to supply China initially with 2-3 million tonnes of grain a year via a grain hub that will be built in Siberia.

 

A U.S. shipment of wheat was rejected by Egypt. Egypt recently declared they would be allowing a small amount of ergot in wheat shipments, however Egyptian quarantine authorities have refused to let in any wheat affected by ergot. The rejected U.S. shipment tested for a 0.006 percent level of ergot, below the international standard of 0.05 percent. Traders speculate that left unresolved, the ergot issue will translate to higher prices at the next GASC tender.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID 0307930)

June 23, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 398

Corn Moves Lower while Soybeans Post Positive Gains

Equities and Crude Sharply Higher

Grains were mixed overnight as corn moved lower while soybeans and wheat posted modest gains. In outside markets, equities and crude were sharply higher and the US dollar was on the decline as the world waited for the results on today’s Brexit vote.

 

In corn, Asian buyers continue to step up after this week’s big price slide. Overnight, South Korea’s FLC bought 130,000 MT of optional origin corn while Taiwan’s MFIG bought 65,000 MT of optional origin corn. However, traders continue to focus on good weather forecasts thru the July 4th weekend which show moderating temperatures and better odds of rain in parts of the dry Western Cornbelt.

 

With showers expanding in the southwest Midwest and Delta in the next 10 days, current crop stress due to heat and recent dryness should ease in parts of northern Arkansas/Tennessee/central and southeast Missouri/southwest Iowa/Kansas/southeast Nebraska. This should narrow the most notably dry areas to parts of east-central South Dakota, central Iowa, southern/west-central Illinois, and central/southeast Michigan by the end of the 15-day period.

 

In outside markets, eyes are on the Brexit vote in Britain which will decide whether the country will stay or leave the EU. Recent polls seem to suggest a leaning by voters towards staying in the EU. Voting results are expected after the polls close at 3 PM CDT.  Yesterday, EIA crude stocks data showed a 2nd consecutive week of crude inventory draw-downs, albeit the stock declines have not been as big as analyst had been expecting

 

USDA WEEKLY EXPORT SALES

 

                         Act-OC         Exp-OC      Act-NC    Exp-NC

Corn                      870       750-1,000        550     200-400

Soybeans               660         400-700         661     600-800

Wheat                                                      462     400-600

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

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