May 03, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 92

KC Wheat Gives Back Some of its Gains in the Overnight

Crop Scouts Projections

Wheat found sellers overnight with KC wheat giving back some of the impressive gains over the past few days while corn and soybeans were mostly unchanged.


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Crop scouts on the first day of an annual three-day tour of Kansas hard red winter wheat fields projected an average yield of 43.0 bushels per acre in the northern portion of the state, slightly above the average of the previous five years but lower than a year earlier of 47.1. However, agronomists said it was still too early to determine the extent of any damage from heavy snow falls in parts of Kansas, something which could take two weeks. The tour moves south to Wichita, KS heading through western and southwestern Kansas, the heart of hard-red country. Scouts should expect to see worsening conditions as more plants were headed in southern counties and in Oklahoma.

 

Taiwan's feed industry procurement association MFIG on Wednesday purchased about 65,000 MT of corn expected to be sourced from Argentina. China fails to sell any of the 92,620 MT of imported wheat made available at auction of state reserves on Wednesday.

China will start selling corn from its huge state reserves on May 5, the National Grain Trade Center said, aiming to sell up to 2 million tonnes at its first auction. Beijing has about 230 million tonnes of corn in its state reserves, equal to about a year of demand. It was expected to auction the grain at attractive prices this year amid growing pressure to get rid of its ageing stocks.

 

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May 02, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 299

Wheat Continued to Propel Higher Overnight

USDA Crop Progress Report Findings Show Corn Crop Planted In Line

Wheat continued to propel higher overnight as KC wheat futures climbed to a 6-week high. Soybeans also saw solid advances overnight while corn was mostly unchanged.

 

The weekend storms continue to be spiking wheat markets as traders now try to assess the likely damage. Yield losses are likely by the snow and frosts that hit KS/CO while the wetter areas in E KS/OK could face damage to yields from disease and waterlogging. Because of the development stage of U.S. wheat it would appear that some yield loss has occurred. Heavy snow in Kansas and Colorado has caused some wheat to be knocked over, the Commodity Weather Group said. Snow is expected to melt quickly, but a significant storm is then seen hindering the recovery of lodged Plains wheat.
 


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The Taiwan Flour Millers' Association has issued an international tender to purchase 95,750 tonnes of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States, European traders said on Tuesday.

On Monday after the close, USDA’s crop progress report showed 34% of the corn crop planted right in line with the 5-yr average and up from 17% last week. Soybeans bumped up to 10% from 6% last week and 7% for the 5-year average. Winter wheat conditions were unchanged on the week at 54% good-to-excellent.

 

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May 01, 2017 | Kevin McNew | Views: 256
May 01, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 185

More Storms in the Week Ahead for the USA Crop Areas

Weekend Rain Rallies Wheat Futures

Heavy weekend rains in the Southern Cornbelt and Plains along with frost threats helped fuel a rally Sunday night led by KC Wheat futures. In outside markets, crude oil was lower while the US Dollar was seeing light losses.

 

Temps in the SW hard wheat belt dropped to 30 degrees on Sunday night while some areas on E OK/ N AK / S MO and S IL had 8 to 12 inches of rain over the weekend. SW KS and the OK/TX panhandle had heavy snows accumulations of 10 to 12 inches. While it may have dented the crop, it probably did more to spark a mass exodus of large spec positions. On Friday’s CFTC report, funds are now all-time record short in Chicago wheat futures and options of 162,327 contracts, surpassing the 151,417 contracts in the week ended Oct. 4, 2016. On the net, 20,201 SRW contracts were sold last week, representing the largest sell-off in five weeks.

 

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The week ahead looks to bring one more storm which will impact key U.S. crop areas later this week starting in the Plains Tuesday night and Wednesday and then focusing on the lower eastern Midwest, Delta and southeastern states Wednesday evening into Friday. But by the weekend and for the 2nd week, the rains seems to disappear from the forecast models.

Farming agency FranceAgriMer on Friday reported a sharp decline in crop conditions for wheat, with the amount of soft wheat rated good/excellent falling to 78 percent from 85 percent in the week to April 24.


 

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April 28, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 163

Moderate to Heavy Weekend Rain Stalls Midwest Corn and Soybean Seeding

Oil Prices Rebounded on Friday

Moderate to heavy weekend rain stalls Midwest/Delta corn and soybean seeding, locally 4 to 8 inches in S Missouri/N Arkansas/C & SW Illinois/NW Indiana. Nearly a week of drying ahead then allows recovery in most of the Midwest; limits risk for standing water in corn and wheat. 11-15 day rains favor W Midwest; far S Midwest/Delta dry out after next Wednesday to limit wetness concerns. Warmer but wetter start to 11-15 day still slows early seeding in parts of N Plains; some improvement in Canada.

 

The Brazilian farmer’s reluctance to sell newly harvested soybeans may have finally paid off for US soybean merchants, who could be in for some better-than-expected export sales in the coming months. --Reuters

 

By the end of March, Brazilian farmers had sold 49% of their soybean crop, the lowest in seven years and well behind the five-year average of 63%, according to consultancy AgRural. And, although the country’s harvest is nearly complete, farmers are still holding on to their beans, hoping for prices to rise.  Brazil is the world’s leading supplier of soybeans, shipping the majority of their product to top-consumer, China. The US is a close second in terms of export volume, and it often competes with Brazil for business depending on prices, logistics and domestic supply.

 

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A Chinese consumer backlash against genetically modified (GMO) crops is beginning to dent demand for soy oil, the nation’s main cooking oil, and could spell crisis for the multi-billion-dollar crushing industry, which depends on GMO soybeans from the US and elsewhere.

 

Soyoil sales account for about 36% of cooking oils used in Chinese kitchens, more than three times the next highest, and most of it is made from imported soybeans, which are nearly all genetically modified.

Oil prices rebounded on Friday after dropping to a one-month low the previous day, prompting investors to buy at cheaper levels ahead of a May OPEC meeting at which producers could extend output cuts.

 

Optimism is rising about the prospect of a year-long production curb deal, with most analysts polled by Reuters expecting the accord between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and the non-OPEC producers, struck at the end of the last year, to be extended to the end of the year.



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April 27, 2017 | Kevin McNew | Views: 172
April 27, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 286

Weekly Export Sales were Strong for Old Crop Corn and Beans

Heavy Rain Expected across MO and IL Over the Next Two Weeks

Grains were in positive territory to start the day trying to recover some of yesterday’s selloff. In outside markets, crude oil was down nearly a $1 a barrel making a run to the $48 a barrel mark.

 

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Yesterday saw selling midday after the White House hinted they were preparing an executive order to pull out of NAFTA. But then, late Wednesday night the White House softened its stance saying it wouldn’t kill NAFTA but instead work to renegotiate it. At risk is Mexico’s business which is the largest US buyer of corn and in the top 3 for US beef.

 

In US weather, heavy rain is still expected in MO/IL over the next two weeks. A storm system is moving across the Central and Eastern Plains the next two days and should bring upwards of 3 to 5 inches of rain in parts of OK/AR/MO before moving East.

 

Weekly export sales were strong for OC corn and beans and NC wheat. With active competition from South America it may be a sign that NC export deals will be harder to come by.

 

Export Sales-

 

  Actual

  Estimated

Wheat - OC

  61

  300-500

Wheat - NC

  305

  50-250

Corn - OC

  987

  700-900

Corn - NC

  11

  50-250

Soybeans-OC

  808

  250-450

Soybeans-NC

  72

  100-300

 

 

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April 26, 2017 | Kevin McNew | Views: 340
April 26, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 221

Soybeans in the Red and Wheat in the Black in the Overnight

US Dollar was Higher

Grains were mixed overnight with soybeans in the red and wheat in the black. Corn was unchanged heading into the morning break. In outside markets the USD was higher after being beaten down early in the week.

 

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The weather continues to point to heavy rains thru the next week in the Plains and Western Cornbelt. Major corn growing regions in the West could receive a total of more than 4-7 inches of rain by May 10, well above average levels. Rain is also expected to fall on most days, giving wet fields little time to dry out before another round arrives.


In international news, Taiwan's feed industry procurement association, MFIG, purchased about 65,000 MT of corn likely to be sourced from Brazil in an international tender which closed on Wednesday. Tunisia's state grains agency purchased around 67,000 MT of soft milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender which closed on Wednesday.

Ukraine boosted its grain exports to 4.54 MMT in March up 52% from 2.98 MMT in February thanks to record sales of maize, analyst UkrAgroConsult said on Wednesday. The corn shipments jumped to 3.1 MMT in March, the highest so far for the 2016/2017 marketing year that runs from July to June, from 1.8 MMT in February.

 

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April 25, 2017 | Kevin McNew | Views: 205

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