Feed & Grain LIVE! early bird registration closes in
April 11, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 298

Grains Sharply Divided in the Overnight

Oil Prices Slipped on Monday

Grains were sharply divided overnight with wheat seeing big losses while soybeans rallied as much as 7 cents before backing off into the break. Corn was weaker as well in the night trade.

 

Soybeans got a lift from a bullish palm oil report Sunday night. Malaysia's palm oil stocks at the end of March fell 13.1% to 1.89 MMT from 2.17 MMT. Exports rose 22.9% to 1.33 MMT tonnes in March. Participants in a Reuters poll expected stockpiles to fall 10.3%t to 1.95 MMT, and exports to rise 12.4% to 1.22 MMT.

 

Wheat came under pressure hitting lows established in early March as forecasts for widespread rains across the U.S. Plains over the weekend eased worries about yield losses. Long-term weather forecasts call for rains in the U.S. Plains. This pattern seems to have strengthened and now heavy rainfall is expected over Saturday and Sunday. Russia's wheat export prices are expected to fall 4% from current levels when the new crop is delivered to the market, IKAR, one of the leading Moscow-based agriculture consultancies, said on Monday. Prices for the new wheat crop with 12.5 percent protein content and for August delivery are quoted by market participants at $176.5 per tonne on a free-on-board (FOB) basis in the Black Sea now, Dmitry Rylko, the head of IKAR, said. The current spot prices are $183 per tonne, he added.

 

Oil prices slipped on Monday after banks dampened hopes that the result of next Sunday's meeting of producers in Qatar aimed at freezing current output levels would improve the current supply-demand balance. Analysts at Goldman Sachs, who expect oil prices to average $35 a barrel in the second quarter, cautioned the outcome of the meeting may end up being bearish for the market. "A production freeze at recent production levels would not accelerate the rebalancing of the oil market as OPEC (excluding Iran) and Russian production levels have this year remained close to our 2016 average annual forecast of 40.5 million bpd," the analysts said.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a branch of Foremost Trading LLC and its DBAs (NFA ID: 0307930)

April 08, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 289

Weekly Cash Comments

Weekly Cash Commentary for week ending 4/08/2016

Grain basis was slightly firmer on the week, but still showing no real movement to the upside. For the week, US average corn basis was up 0.5 cents a bushel, and soybeans up only 0.25 cents a bushel.

 

A late week rally in beans got some uptick in country movement but buyers are keeping basis levels fairly steady with more supplies as planting season will bring a temporary halt to farmer selling. For corn basis, river terminals found some modest strength this week as basis at the Gulf moved 4 cents higher on a recent uptick in export activity. For soybeans, basis was 1-cent higher at the Gulf, which helped lift river terminal basis on the week.

 

End users of corn for ethanol were modestly higher as a group, although there were some notable bids that were up 5 to 10 cents on the week. For soybean plants, basis levels were up 0.5 cents on average with most facilities keeping basis unchanged for the week.  

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a branch of Foremost Trading LLC and its DBAs (NFA ID: 0307930)

April 08, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 392

Crude Races Higher in the Overnight

Grains Find Modest Strength in the Overnight

Grains found some modest strength overnight with wheat leading the advances after the sharp sell-off in the past week. In outside markets, crude oil raced higher overnight nearly posting a $2 a barrel advance while US stock futures were higher as well.

 

Wheat found some buying interest overnight with South Korea's Daehan Flour Mill buying 55,700 MT of wheat to be sourced from the United States, and Japan's Ministry of Agriculture bought 137,486 MT of food quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that closed late on Friday.

 

The Plains will see scattered showers occur at the start of next week near the Kansas/Oklahoma border and into parts of Texas/Oklahoma, with rains also likely later in the 6 to 10 day across the western Plains. While the outlook is drier as a whole compared to yesterday for the next two weeks in the Plains, many of the driest western areas may still see some improvement. Central Kansas is probably the most at risk to be short-changed based on the current model runs, although confidence remains low due to the continued inconsistency in the model guidance.

 

Corn has found some buying interest of late with modest gains in cash basis and traders expecting a lower corn number than USDA put out in March. However, the risk for bigger carryout still exists. As U of Illinois economist Darrel Good states “Planted acreage of 93.6 million acres, harvested acreage of 86 million acres, and an average yield near the USDA's calculated trend of 168 bushels would result in a crop of 14.448 billion bushels and 2016-17 marketing year ending stocks near 2.4 billion bushels."

 

Oil prices rose as much as 5 percent on Friday, lifted by fresh hopes over a proposed freeze in oil production and firm economic indicators from the United States and Germany that cast a positive light on growth in fuel demand. Russia's oil production could fall in April, sources said, while the country's energy minister expressed hopes that producer nations could agree to an output freeze at a meeting in Doha later this month. Bank of America Merrill Lynch said in a note that U.S. shale production was in "freefall" and that "as the global oil glut starts to clear, crude oil should lead the way". Still, some warned that oil prices could fall again, dragged down by a glut that will take time to clear and soaring production outside the United States, especially in parts of the Middle East.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a branch of Foremost Trading LLC and its DBAs (NFA ID: 0307930)

April 07, 2016 | Kevin McNew | Views: 498
April 07, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 262

Crude Oil Gives up Yesterday’s Gains in the Overnight

Yesterday, Monsanto CEO Hugh Grant said his company seed sales suggest a corn acreage number lower than USDA’s forecast

Grains were lower overnight while in outside markets stock indices and crude oil gave up some of yesterday’s sharp gains.

 

Brazil’s government sees 2015/16 soybean crop 98.98 MMT versus last month’s forecast of 101.18 MMT. For corn, they peg the crop AT 84.66 versus 83.52 as the forecast in March.

 

In export news, South Korea bought some Australian wheat, while Egypt’s GASC tendered for wheat overnight with the lowest price coming in at $183/MT and no US interests were submitted for the tender.

 

Yesterday, Monsanto CEO Hugh Grant said his company seed sales suggest a corn acreage number lower than USDA’s forecast of 93.6 million acres. Although he did not give a specific forecast, Grant suggested a number greater than 90 million acres based on year-on-year company seed sales.

 

WEEKLY EXPORT SALES

 

                         OC Actual         OC Expected         NC Actual     NC Expected

Corn                      945.2             800-1,000                175.1             0-200

Soybeans               420.4                150-350                   1.5              0-200

Wheat                   -58.1                150-350                159.3            50-150

 

EIA crude stocks were down sharply on Wednesday as the government agency estimated US crude inventories were off nearly 5 million barrels. Analysts had been expecting a 3.15 million barrel build in stocks for the week.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a dba of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

April 06, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 308
April 06, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 264

Grains Head Lower in the Overnight Session

In outside markets, crude oil was higher as were stock index futures

Grains headed lower in the overnight session with wheat leading the complex to lower on improved crop ratings. In outside markets, crude oil was higher as were stock index futures.

 

On Tuesday, USDA pegged the US wheat crop at 59% good-to-excellent versus expectations of 57% from analysts. That is up above 44% at the same time last year and the five-year average of 42%. However, key HRW states of KS, OK & TX were all lower on the week seeing crop condition ratings slip over last week.

 

In Brazil, private consultant Celeres raised their soy and corn crop forecast, pegging soybeans at 99.9 MMT versus their previous forecast of 99.1 and lifting corn to 87.5 MMT from a previous forecast of 87.1.

 

Corn found modest strength on Tuesday, gaining ground on soybeans as traders unwound short corn/long bean spread trades. Corn rose to its highest in almost a week on talk U.S. farmers may plant more soybeans instead of the corn sowings they previously planned. Soybeans were lower, in turn weakened by prospects of larger U.S. sowings, but saw some support from rain hindering Argentina's harvest.

 

In oil, API weekly data showed crude oil stocks were down 4.3 million barrels versus trade estimates which expected a 2.9 million barrel build. This is the first time weekly data has shown a drop in crude stocks since mid-February. EIA official government data will be released at 9:30 CDT, with expectations for a 3.15 million barrel build.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a dba of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

April 05, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 308
April 05, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 198

Grains Were Mixed in the Overnight

Stock futures were on the defensive giving up nearly 0.75%

Grains were mixed overnight with wheat adding to Monday’s losses while corn and beans started the day in positive territory. Stock futures were on the defensive giving up nearly 0.75% while crude oil was soft as it continues its slide over the past week.

 

Malaysian palm oil futures rose on Tuesday, heading for their third straight session of gains on the back of a weaker ringgit MYR=, outweighing worries that an export tax on crude palm oil would dampen demand. Malaysian palm oil inventories in March are forecast to have dropped below 2 million tonnes, breaching that level for the first time in a year, with production coming in at the weakest for the month since 2007, a Reuters survey showed. Shrinking stockpiles at the world's No.2 palm oil producer as a crop-damaging El Nino weather pattern crimps output could underpin benchmark prices of the tropical oil, which have risen over the past two months and reached a two-year high.

 

Analyst Ukragroconsult raised its forecast for Ukraine's 2016 wheat harvest to 18.5 million tonnes on Tuesday, against a previous estimate of 17.7 million tonnes. The consultancy's Yelizaveta Malyshko told Reuters that very favorable weather this spring and optimal moisture content in soil were the main reason for the improved outlook. Ukraine, the world's third-largest grain exporter, harvested 26.5 million tonnes of wheat in 2015.

 

Weather continues to point to good odds of the Plains getting some moisture between Apr 10-15.  However, weather models of late are showing better rain potential more towards the central Plains and less towards the Western Plains were the most severe drought issues are occurring. KC wheat still has support at $4.60 but needs to find a breakout above $5 to change the choppy patterns of late.

 

Stocks were on shaky ground on Tuesday as the IMF warned of potential risk from developing markets. Major emerging markets, led by China, are increasingly likely to spread fear to financial markets, leading to poor stock performance in the U.S. and other developed countries, the International Monetary Fund said. In oil, prices continue to sink as traders discount any deal to curb production by OPEC in the meeting this month. Recent comments from Saudi Arabia cast doubts about the ability of world oil producers to agree to an output freeze at their meeting in Qatar.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a dba of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

April 04, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 339

Page 11 of 101 pages ‹ First  < 9 10 11 12 13 >  Last ›

More Articles

Reach. Connect. Engage.

A two-day conference covering three critical issues

Prairie Meadows Hotel, Altoona Iowa
August 22-23, 2016

Learn More