September 22, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Feed and Grain | Views: 466
September 21, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 223
September 21, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 200

Grains Dip Lower Overnight

Crude and Equities in Positive Territory

Grains dipped lower overnight while crude oil and equities were in positive territory to start the day.

 

After finding a one-month high yesterday, soybeans turned lower as active farmer selling yesterday kept basis levels softening. Corn tried for the 4th time in two months to clear the $3.42 area in yesterday’s trade but settled below the $3.40 mark and is off further today.

 

Morocco's grain agency, ONICL, said on Wednesday it had bought 235,000 MT of U.S. soft wheat under a preferential tariff agreement. Earlier this month, ONICL launched a tender to buy 300,000 tonnes of U.S. soft wheat, 300,000 tonnes of EU soft and 45,000 of EU durum, with shipments that should arrive at Moroccan ports by Dec. 31. The North African kingdom has agreements with the United States and the European Union to import certain types of grain at preferential tariffs, with volumes depending on the size of the local harvest.


 

Investors will watch the U.S. Federal Reserve policy decision later on Wednesday. Expectations of a rate increase have all but evaporated after some weak economic data. The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged, but may signal year-end hike. The Fed's rate-setting committee will release its policy statement at 1 p.m. CDT. Fed Chair Janet Yellen is scheduled to hold her quarterly press conference half an hour later.

 

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September 20, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 404
September 20, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 232

Grains Start the Day in Positive Territory

US Dollar Slightly Higher

Grains were again in positive territory to start the day with soybeans leading the complex higher. In outside markets, the US dollar was slightly higher as were equities while crude oil was slipping lower going into the start of the day session.

 

USDA’s crop progress report showed on change in the condition of the US corn and soybean crops, as both held steady on the week at 74% and 73% good-to-excellent, respectively. Corn harvest came in a little below expectations with 9% of the crop harvested versus an average trade expectation of 11%. Soybean plantings were at 4%, which was inline with expectations but slightly below the 5-year average pace of 5% harvested at this time of year.

 

Russia is expected to harvest a grain crop of between 110 and 116 MMT this year, Agriculture Minister Alexander Tkachev told a conference in Moscow on Tuesday. The country's grain exports may total 35-40 million tonnes in the 2016/17 marketing year which started on July 1, he added. The ministry had previously expected the crop in a range of 113 million to 116 million tonnes

This morning Stats Canada revised higher their wheat crop forecast.  They pegged all wheat output up 14.3% to 31.32 MMT vs 27.39 MMT in 2015. Canola output was seen as unchanged at 18.31 MMT as compared to the same output level in 2015.

 

The U.S. Federal Reserve's two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting on interest rates begins today. The meeting concludes on Wednesday with an interest rate decision due at 1 p.m. CDT.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)


 

September 19, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 297
September 19, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 222

Soybeans Post Double Digit Gains

Equities Higher to Start the Week

Soybeans posted double digit gains to hit a one-week high to start the day while corn and wheat gains were limited to a few cents. In outside markets, crude oil found strength and helped push equities higher to start the week.

 

Crop consultant Safras pegs Brazil's 2016/17 corn crop at a record 92.3 MMT versus 70.75 MMT in 2015/16 . They expect summer crops planted area for corn to rise 7.8% from year ago to 4.21 million hectares. The increase in summer crop area is linked to the improved price of the grain in comparison to soybeans.

 

Dry soil could hit the sowing of winter grain in Ukraine, analyst UkrAgroConsult said on Monday.
Winter wheat accounts for 95% of Ukraine's overall wheat output, and the winter crop is also a significant part of the barley harvest. The consultancy said in a statement the average daily temperature was up to 6 degrees Celsius higher than the norm, and that had created poor conditions for preparing the soil for winter sowing.

 

Egypt was again tendering for wheat. But their last tender met with silence as no global sellers offered up wheat because of strict Ergot restrictions.

Oil prices rallied on Monday, after Venezuela said a deal to stabilize the global oil supply is imminent between nations inside and outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

September 16, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 249

Weekly Cash Comments

Weekly Cash Commentary for week ending 09/16/2016

National basis levels moved lower after a taking a break last week. Historically basis levels are pegged to keep moving lower until mid to late October.

 

On average, corn lost 1/2 cents per bushel.  Ethanol plants were down 1 cent per bushel this week. Corn basis along the river was off the most losing almost 3 cents. Basis along the river and at the gulf typically gets hit the hardest this time of year.

 

Soybean basis was hit especially hard this week off almost 4 cents nationally. Crush facilities took the lightest blow losing 2 3/4 cents. NOPA reported that soy processors crushed 2.6 percent fewer beans in August than a year ago and the pace fell below market expectations due to declines at plants in the Southwest. Soybeans along the river were the biggest loser, off 7 1/4 cents.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

September 16, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 178

Disappointing NOPA Crush Numbers

Possible interest rate hike

Grains were weaker to start the day as outside markets for equities and oil were lower on thoughts that the Fed might raise interest rates next week.

 

Yesterday, NOPA soybean crush figures were a disappointing 131.8 MB for the month of August. That compared to an average analyst estimate of 136.2 MB and an August of 2015 crush of 135 MB.

 

In overnight news, global wheat sellers sat on their hands for the latest round of Egyptian wheat tenders. Egypt's state grain buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), did not get any offers from global wheat suppliers at its purchase tender on Friday on the back of continuing worries over the country's ergot fungus policy, Cairo-based traders said.

 

In weather news, overnight rains in the Western Cornbelt with heavier rains near Nebraska/Iowa & Iowa/South Dakota borders will slow harvest there. Rain is expected to head east next 2 days and favor OH/IN. Next week should be more favorable for dry conditions and harvest progress.

 

This morning fresh inflation data in the US showed consumer prices were rising faster than expected. That put Fed watchers on alert for a potential interest rate hike at the Fed meeting Sep 20-21. The US dollar index is up 0.5% while crude oil and equities are lower. The Baker Hughes rig count later today should provide more guidance for crude oil .US rig count numbers have been increasing steadily since the end of May.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

September 15, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 235

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