March 03, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 16

Grains Mixed After Monday Selling

The grains are mixed after Monday selling with Informa's latest crop report expected out at 10:30 AM this morning.

The grains are mixed this morning with corn up 1 ¼ cents, soybeans down 3 ¾ cents and wheat in Chicago down 2 ½ cents. Traders should keep an eye on the Informa Economics latest crop estimates scheduled for release at 10:30 AM this morning. Also on the horizon is the USDA Supply and Demand report to be released on the 10th and the NOPA crush figures on the 16th.

 

Yesterday, export inspections showed that corn beat analyst expectations by recording 1.2 million metric tons inspected for export compared to expectations which ranged from 750,000 and 900,000 MT. Wheat reported 450,093 metric tons inspected for export which was on the high side of analyst expectations and soybeans recorded 635,164 MT which disappointed analysts who were expecting between 750,000 and 950,000 MT.

 

A recent crop condition report on Monday showed that the western HRW regions of Oklahoma, Nebraska, Texas and Colorado have improved their crop conditions ratings due to less than expected winterkill during February. However, Kansas wheat conditions have slipped due to harsh conditions and freezing temperatures throughout February. 

March 02, 2015 | Cody Bills | Views: 90
March 02, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 177

Police Crack Down on Brazil Roadblocks

The police handed out fines and cleared out a number of roadblocks helping restore traffic flow to congested areas of the country.

In the overnight session the grains traded mixed with corn down 1 cent, soybeans up 2 ¼ cents and wheat up 2 cents going into the morning pause in trade. The Chicago wheat market seems to have held support off $4.96 last Thursday which was the previous low back on February 2nd.

 

Over the weekend the Brazil police enforced the fines announced by the justice minister on Friday. The Police arrested protesters and broke up road blocks bringing the total number of road blockages down from 88 on Thursday to 12 partial roadblocks nationwide. Protest leaders stated that the government has still not addressed the striker’s issues. The Brazilian government will increase the police presence on the highways to ensure freight lanes are kept open.

 

The Midwest is expecting to receive more wintery weather this week with below zero temperatures expected by the end of the week and between two to eight inches of snow is expected in the northern Delta. Due to the accumulated snow cover, there is a low concern for winterkill freezing areas.  

February 27, 2015 | Cody Bills | Views: 125

Weekly Wrap Up

Cody and Kevin talk weekly basis and give an update on the trucker strikes in South America.

February 27, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 130

Weekly Cash Comments

Cash Commentary for week of February 27th

Corn basis saw modest growth this week advancing 2 cents a bushel on average across the country, but bean basis was unchanged thanks to higher futures and better farmer selling.

 

In corn, basis levels were up largely driven by strength at ethanol plants in the Western Cornbelt. On average, ethanol plants posted a 3-cent gains but in the Western Cornbelt plants were up 5 to 10 cents a bushel in some cases. This week’s ethanol production was off 17,000 barrels per day from the previous week, but year-to-date production is still well ahead of last year’s pace. At the Gulf, export basis gained 2 cents a bushel but river terminals on average were up slightly less than that. Southern stretches of the Mississippi river and the Ohio River saw corn basis strength this week.

 

For beans, average basis levels were flat across the country, but soy crushing plants as a group were off 2 cents a bushel. Deliveries appeared to pick up this week with soybean futures shooting higher early in the week thanks to the threat of a Brazilian trucker strike. Also, bad weather in the US eastern Cornbelt kept plants in Indiana and Ohio bidding higher for beans as farm movement slowed, while river terminals along the Ohio River encouraged farmers to deliver beans over corn to their facilities. On average, river terminal basis levels were unchanged for the week in spite of a 4-cent advance at the Gulf.

February 27, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 112

Grains Higher Going into Friday

The grains are trading higher going into the Friday session as Brazil logistics concerns continues to stir up short covering on Soybeans.

In the overnight the grains traded higher with corn up ¼ of a cent, soybeans up 3 ½ cents and wheat up 6 ¾ cents going into this morning’s pause. Wheat seems to be bouncing higher this morning after holding a major support level of $4.92 ¼ which was the low back on February 2nd. Today is first notice day for March grain contracts.

 

The trucker strike continues in Brazil even after the Government offered truckers a year of free financing for vehicles from the state development bank, an offer to keep diesel prices unchanged for six months and to help truckers work out a framework for setting freight rates. This offer by the government resulted in some truckers ending their strike and clearing off the roadside, but many roads throughout Brazil are still blocked. Yesterday, in an attempt to break the trucker strike, the state Justice Minister said that the government would impose fines of about $1,700-$3,400 per hour on trucks who have blocked roadways. Despite the threat of fines truckers continue to block traffic throughout Brazil.

 

Weather forecasts in Brazil continue to show moisture in the forecast which has been interrupting the Safrinha corn planting pace. More rain is expected in the northern part of Brazil for the rest of the week and throughout the 6-15 day outlook. There are some slight concerns that the delays in planting could lead to additional acreage and yield loss throughout Moto Grosso.   

 

Yesterday Brazil’s Agro consultant released their latest forecast of 14/15 Brazilian soybean production pegging the crop at 94.7 million metric tons compared the USDA’s forecast in February of 94.5 MMT.

February 26, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 190
February 26, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 136

Export sales provide little support to the markets

Export sales were on the lower end of expectations this morning with corn missing expectations by a couple hundred thousand metric tons.

In the overnight session the grains traded mixed with corn and soybeans up 2 ¼ each and wheat trading 1 ¼ cent higher going into the morning pause in trade. Today is the last day to get out of any March grain contracts with first notice day Friday the 27th.

 

Yesterday at 11 AM CST trucker strike representatives met with the Brazil government to seek a resolution to the multi week long strike that has clogged roadways in Brazil. Following the meeting, Brazil minister says that the Government is not open to altering fuel tax to appease the striking truckers. However, the government followed that announcement by stating that the truckers are showing flexibility and that they expect a resolution will be reached soon.

 

Exports sales for corn were weaker than expected, while wheat and soybeans reported sales on the low side of analyst expectations. For the week ending February 19th corn export sales totaled to 715,800 MT which was down 23 percent from last week. Analysts were expecting to see corn sales between 900,000 and 1,100,000 metric tons. Soybean export sales were on the low side of expectations booking 459,200 MT compared to expectations between 450,000-650,000 metric tons. Soybean sales are still well ahead of the pace needed to meet USDA expectations. Wheat sales were reported 328,300 metric tons of sales, within the analyst expectations and up 23 percent from the previous week.

 

                                        Expected                   Actual

Corn                          900,000-1,100,000            715,800

Soybeans                       450,000-650,000            459,000

Wheat                          200,000-400,000            328,300

 

This morning the International Grains Council forecast the world wheat crop to increase 2 million metric tons to 719 MMT for the 14/15 marketing year. The IGC forecast a decline for the 15/16 marketing year to 705 MMT. 

February 25, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 153

Ethanol Production out this Morning

Ethanol production seemed to be following the normal trend while maintaining a 5% advantage over last year's production. Resolutions look to be near for the South American truckers on strike.

February 25, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 157

Soybeans slip in overnight after yesterday’s gains

Soybeans slipped a few pennies in the overnight session after yesterday’s rally. The Brazil trucker strike continues.

The grains are moving lower this morning with corn down a penny, soybeans down 4 cents and wheat in Chicago down 3 ½ cents. Yesterday’s rally in Soybeans sparked some farmer selling after prices rose sharply to an intraday high of $10.29. Keep a close watch on corn today as it trades next to a support level of 3.76 cents which was a previous low on in November, December and the middle of January. This morning a reportable sale of 120,000 metric tons of HRW wheat to Egypt was announced.   

 

The Brazil trucker strike and blockade continues this morning although a main road to the Port of Santos was cleared early Wednesday. Even though the striking trucks were dispersed along that stretch, congestion remains an issue with a large amount of trucks looking to use the road soon. The Attorney General stated that they will begin levying significant fines if the strike continues to grow. Despite the threat of large fines, the strike continues throughout many of the countryside roads as truckers protest the increase in diesel prices. Traders are still concerned that the flow of grain to ports and the flow of diesel to small towns which fuel combines will cause slowdowns and delays in weeks to come.

 

Also in Brazil, scattered showers will continue Thursday through Sunday and continue to disrupt corn planting. Corn planting is about a week behind normal and the 6-15 day forecast showing very few windows of opportunity for corn planting between precipitation events.   

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Weekly Cash Comments

February 27, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills

Corn basis saw modest growth this week advancing 2 cents a bushel on average across the country, but bean basis was unchanged thanks to higher futures and better farmer selling.

 

In corn, basis levels were up largely driven by strength at ethanol plants in the Western Cornbelt. On...

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Grains Higher Going into Friday

February 27, 2015 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills

In the overnight the grains traded higher with corn up ¼ of a cent, soybeans up 3 ½ cents and wheat up 6 ¾ cents going into this morning’s pause. Wheat seems to be bouncing higher this morning after holding a major support level of $4.92 ¼ which was the low back on February 2nd. Today is...

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