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May 23, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 238

USDA Crop Progress Report Showed Another Strong Week for Farmer Planting

Grains were weaker to start Tuesday

Grains were weaker to start Tuesday giving up all of Monday’s gains.

 

EXPORTERS SELL 126,000 METRIC TONS OF SOYBEANS FOR DELIVERY TO UNKNOWN DESTINATIONS DURING THE 2016/2017 MARKETING YEAR- USDA

 

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USDA’s crop progress report showed another strong week for farmer planting. Corn planting hit 84% vs 71% last week while soybean planting moved to 53% planted vs 32% last week. Although there was no national crop ratings on corn, state ratings from IL improved to 51% good-to-excellent compared to 42% last week, and IA’s first rating came in at 75% good-to-excellent. Winter wheat conditions nudged higher to 52% good-to-excellent vs 51% last week.

 

In Brazil, the supreme court there will be weighing a decision to be announced on Wednesday about whether to let the corruption investigation of President Temer move forward. This will have important implications for the Brazilian markets and the Real. In Argentina, they have their own currency woes as the Argentinean Peso hit its lowest level ever against the US Dollar on spillover effects from the Brazil crisis.

 

Chinese soybean imports for April were record large and South America shipped its highest ever monthly amount to China to the tune of 6.2 MMT. In Ukraine, Lanworth is forecasting wheat yields are likely to fall to 3.72 tonnes per hectare this year from a record 4.21 tonnes last year. It said favorable weather could push the yield up to last year's level, but poor conditions could cut it to around 3.40 tonnes.
 

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May 22, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 183

Grains Start the Week in Positive Territory

Cool and Wet Weather in the US Continues

Grains started the week in positive territory supported by cool wet weather and a continued slide in the US Dollar.

 

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Overall the weather pattern in the US continues to suggest cool and wet weather for much of the country. Wetness will continue for the next two weeks with much of the precip hitting the already soaked areas of MO/IL/IN/OH. Temperatures for the next 5 days should be well below normal in the Western Cornbelt but should return to normal for much of the country after that.

 

Corn planting is expected to be about 85% planted in USDA’s crop progress report released this afternoon. But wet weather and re-planting issues will likely be talked about in coming days. Crop condition ratings won’t be released until next week, but early states results in IL showed only 42% of the crop in good-to-excellent condition while MO was 49%.

 

Russian wheat export prices rose last week, supported by a state purchase by Egypt, the largest buyer of Russian wheat, and expectations that the rouble currency would rise further against the dollar, analysts said on Monday. Black Sea prices for Russian wheat with 12.5 percent protein content were at $185.50 a tonne FOB at the end of last week, up $1 from a week earlier, Russian agricultural consultancy SovEcon said.

 

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May 19, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 198

Weekly Cash Comments

Weekly Cash Commentary for week ending 05/19/2017

Grain basis found some upside this week with corn advancing 2.2 cents on average for the week while soybeans garnered a 2.5 cent move higher.

 

Corn found strength as farmers stay tied to their planters which limited pipeline supplies. Areas of Western Kansas continued to show some buoyancy as for the 2nd week in a row the region showed strong basis gains. Also, river terminals along the MS/IL river system were also generally higher with gains of 3 to 5 cents on the week being fairly typical, and on average river buyers were up 3.5 cents. Ethanol plants as a group managed only a 1.5 cent advance on the week although some facilities did record 5 to 8 cent gains.

 

For soybeans, basis levels were also generally higher albeit with soy crushing plants doing most of the higher bidding this week with a collective 3.2-cent gain for the week. There were a fair number of Western Cornbelt plants raising their basis by a dime. River terminals, on the other hand were bucking the overall trend as finished the week about 1-cent lower. The late week selloff in bean futures seemed to trigger a risk-off attitude as river buyers became wary of slowing exports in the face of Brazil’s sharp currency devaluation on Tuesday.

 

 

The corn competition landscape saw only modest changes this week as ADM Cedar Rapids won back its territory by bidding up basis a nickel on the week to -10N. ADM Columbus used a basis improvement on Thursday to -16N to improve its drawing area after slipping in size early in the week.

 

Soybean competition was mostly stable in IA/IL this week as plants here mostly kept basis unchanged. However, ADM Deerfield, MO bumped its basis by a dime to -10N, helping expand the plant’s drawing region into Eastern KS.

 

 

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May 19, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 250

Massive Soy Sales for Brazilian Farmers Yesterday

Soybeans Recovered Overnight

Soybeans recovered overnight trying to pair back the 30-cent losses from Thursday. Corn and wheat were also firmly in positive territory to start the day.

 

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US weather in the Cornbelt through the end of May should be cooler than normal with daily averages coming in 10 to 15 degrees below normal. Rainfall is expected to be on the topside of normal with KS/MO expected to see totals of up to 4 inches through this weekend.

 

Brazilian farmer sales were said to be massive yesterday following the collapse of the Brazilian Real. Reports vary from 2 to 5 MMT were sold yesterday alone as farmers raced to cash in on the currency swing lifting their farm-gate prices. Even so, Brazilian soy farmers have sold only half of their record 2016/17 crop by Friday, compared to 67 percent sold at this time last year and a 5-year average of 65 percent of sales, independent consultancy Safras & Mercado said.

The condition of French soft wheat declined slightly last week, with 75 percent of crops rated good or excellent as of May 15, down from 76 percent a week earlier, farm office FranceAgriMer said on Friday. The ratings slip reversed a small improvement in the previous week, and may indicate that growing conditions in the European Union's biggest cereal producer remain mixed despite rainfall and warmer temperatures this month that broke a dry, cold spell in April.

 

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May 18, 2017 | Kevin McNew | Views: 371
May 18, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 178

Soybeans Hammered in the Overnight

Decent USDA Weekly Export Sales Report Numbers

Soybeans were hammered overnight as Brazil’s economy was thrown into a tailspin on potential political corruption by the President. In outside markets, US equities continued their slide and crude oil was off in a risk-off start to the day.

 

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Late yesterday news broke that Brazil’s president Temer gave his blessing to pay a potential witness to remain silent in the country's biggest-ever graft probe. If accurate, this could pull Temer into a corruption scandal that has already entangled several of his closest allies and advisors. Leading lawmakers and a third of Temer's cabinet have already been caught up in an investigation of systematic bribery in return for political favors and contracts with state-run enterprises. Investors dumped Brazilian assets in foreign markets after the news broke late in Brazil. The Brazilian Real plunged 7% in overnight trade, which immediately sent US soybean prices down nearly 2%. Brazil farmers have been holding tight to their mammoth soy crop as the Real has climbed nearly 10% since the first of the year. This plunge should lead to a mass selling wave of Brazilian farmers.

 

In other news, overnight Japan bought 80,000 MT of US wheat in its regular tender activity while Canada garnered 35,000 MT of the total 115,000 MT deal. Private analyst Strategie Grains cut its EU wheat estimate by 1.1 MMT to 142.7 MMT. This still would be up 5% from last year’s crop. Likewise, they trimmed their corn estimate by 0.3 MMT to 60.1 MMT. If realized, this would be up 0.3% from last year.

USDA’s weekly export sales were decent this week as the data came in mostly on the high side of analyst expectations. Under normal circumstances this might be a positive stimulus for the market that has struggled with export business, but this will take a backseat to the situation in Brazil. The risk could be substantial to the downside for soybeans, and perhaps even corn.

 

Export Sales-

  

  Actual

Estimated

Wheat - OC

   247

0-200

Wheat - NC

   393

200-400

Corn - OC

   705

500-750

Corn - NC

   168

50-250

Soybeans-OC

   355

200-400

Soybeans-NC

    41

0-200

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

May 17, 2017 | Kevin McNew | Views: 342
May 17, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 140

US Dollar and Stock Indices were Lower to Start the Day

Grains were Higher in the Overnight Trade Session

Grains were higher overnight with modest gains supported by a US Dollar falling to its lowest level since the November elections.

 

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Overnight, Egypt’s GASC was in the market tendering for wheat although their most recent request called for higher protein wheat which could restrict access to France. The remainder brought in the lowest offer by the US for $185/MT FOB for HRW.

 

Yesterday Lanworth came out with their summer weather forecast, which suggests the Eastern part of the grain belt could be prone to drought. They put the odds of this season’s weather to be near normal to hot/dry. They suggest a strong ridge with a “ring of fire” setting up in the middle of the country. This would potentially set the stage for hot/dry to the East while areas to the upper West like IA/MN would see more moisture. The timing of the event is still unclear but the odds seem to favor June rains giving way to July heat and dry conditions which could potentially have a more pronounced impact on beans versus corn.

The US Dollar and stock indices were lower to start the day as the political firestorm over Trump’s dealings with former FBI Director Comey come to the surface. The US Dollar reached its lowest level since the November elections, which is supportive for grain prices.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

May 16, 2017 | Kevin McNew | Views: 165
May 16, 2017 | Feed & Grain staff | Views: 407

Experts to Sort out FDA, USDA Regulations at Feed & Grain LIVE

Conference features regulatory updates from the industry’s leading policy experts

Experts to Sort out FDA, USDA Regulations at Feed & Grain LIVE

Find out what two inside-the-beltway experts have learned about the current administration, its impact on regulations affecting the feed and grain industry, and how potential changes will affect you and your business. Attend Feed & Grain LIVE, May 31 – June 2, 2017, at Prairie Meadows Hotel in Altoona, Iowa!

At this important conference you’ll hear from Jess McCluer, vice president, safety and regulatory affairs, National Grain and Feed Association, and Richard Sellers, senior vice president of policy and education for the American Feed Industry Association.

McCluer will explain how recently-appointed Department of Labor Secretary Alexander Acosta might look at OSHA enforcement policies. There are plenty of questions about various potential OSHA rule changes. Find out what McCluer is hearing first-hand in his efforts in Washington.

Sellers, with his decades-long history of advocating for the feed industry and educating feed businesses about industry regulations, will shed light on President Trump’s regulatory philosophy. Both the Veterinary Feed Directive and the Food Safety Modernization Act may see important changes. This is an important update you won’t want to miss!

Register now at: http://live.feedandgrain.com/!   Include code REGUPDATE to save $100 on registration.

(Plus, you’ll find plenty of other valuable sessions to attend, including:

  • A hands-on workshop on mycotoxin testing (limited to 30 attendees)
  • Advances in pelleting technology
  • Written Food Safety Plan panel discussion with NGFA’s David Fairfield, senior vice president, feed services
  • Grain merchandising and emerging market opportunities
  • Finding, developing and keeping talented people in your business
  • And a special general session on managing the “daily crises” of customer service miscues )

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