September 25, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 104

Grains Trade Lower in the Sunday Evening Session

Weather Looks to be Favorable in the Mid-West This Week

The grains traded lower Sunday evening with December corn down 1 ½ cents, November soybeans down 4 ¾ cents and December Chicago wheat down 2 ½ cents this morning. Weather this week looks to be mostly favorable with precipitation in the northern Midwest expected over the next two days and above average temperatures helping the drying process. The recent moisture in the panhandle of Texas has been favorable to winter wheat germination.  

 

Brazilian weather looks to bring moisture to some dry fields into Parana by the weekend with more chances of showers in Northern Brazil. The increased chances of showers should help the planting pace which started mid- September and is lagging behind the normal pace. The forecast for precipitation in Brazil is expecting dryness to return in the 11-15 day period, but expects rains by mid-October.


 

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The most recent Cattle On Feed report was a bearish surprise to many traders and showed that more cattle were placed in August than expected. August placements were 103 percent of last year compared to the Reuters average trade guess which showed trader expectations averaged around 97.1 percent. All Cattle on Feed was 104 percent of a year ago. Marketings were mostly in line with expectations with the USDA reporting 106 percent of cattle marketed in August compared to the average trade guess of 105.8. The report on Friday was released after the market closed.  

 

 

Corn imports into China continued to run strong in August with 380,000 metric tons imported. Although imports are down sharply from July, August's numbers representing a 14 times increase from last year when imports were reduced after China ended the state run stockpile program. Corn in China is mostly used to feed livestock.  

 

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September 22, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 208

Corn Soybeans and Wheat all Up after Overnight Session

Drought Expected to Persist Throughout ND, SD and MT

In the overnight session the grains traded higher with December corn up 2 cents, November soybeans up 7 ½ cents and December Chicago wheat up 1 ½ cents this morning. The strong export sales reported yesterday coupled with dryness in both Moto Grosso and Parana are helping to support prices this morning.

 

The dryness in Brazil is not an immediate threat but it has slowed the pace of planting which starts mid-September and continues through November. Some areas haven’t received rain in nearly a month and are taking longer than usual to come out of the dry season. Weather forecasters are expecting some precipitation in the 6-15 day forecast but confidence in the likely distribution is low. Although the the recent dryness is unlikely to have any impact on the crop, it puts emphasis on receiving more precipitation in October.

 

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The most recent Seasonal Drought Outlook maps have been updated by the Climate Prediction Center and show that drought is expected to persist throughout North Dakota, South Dakota and Montana. The report also shows persisting dryness expected throughout eastern portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley, Lower Michigan, western Nebraska.

 

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September 21, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 157

Strong Export Sales Numbers for Soybeans

Grains Trade Lower in the Overnight Session

In the overnight session the grains are trading lower with December corn down ½ a cent, November soybeans down 6 ¼ cents and December Chicago wheat down 2 cents. The sharp rally in the U.S dollar following the latest Fed meeting could be pressuring commodities this morning. The Fed’s intention to press forward with another rate increase by the end of the year despite the decline in inflation surprised many and triggered a sharp rally in the U.S dollar index.

 

EXPORTERS SELL 132,000 METRIC TONS OF SOYBEANS FOR DELIVERY TO CHINA DURING THE 2017/2018 MARKETING YEAR- USDA

 

According to the EIA report released on Wednesday Ethanol production dipped this week to 1.033 million barrels per day, down 1.3 percent from last week. This weeks production was 5.3 percent above last year during the same period. Production will need to continue running ahead of last years levels in order to meet the USDA 2017-18 forecast of 5.475 billion bushels used for ethanol. Ethanol stocks were mostly unchanged in this week’s report at 888 million gallons.    

 

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This weeks export sales were very strong for soybeans and less impressive for corn and wheat. Soybean sales recorded 2,338,100 metric tons with over half going to China. China importers are beginning to take advantage of the weakness in U.S soybean prices as supplies in Brazil have thinned. Wheat export sales were down three percent from last week and on the low end of analyst expectations with only 307,200 metric tons sold. Corn sales missed expectations with net sales of 526,900 metric tons recorded.

 

Weekly Export Sales-

 

Actual

Estimated

Wheat

307

300-500

Corn

527

700-1,000

Soybeans

2,338

1,200-1,500


 

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September 20, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 120

Yesterday’s Trade Action in November Soybeans was Positive

Flash Sales This Morning

In the overnight session the grains are trading higher with December corn up 1 ¼ cent, November soybeans up 3 ¼ cents and December Chicago wheat up 2 ¼ cents. Strong precipitation is expected over the weekend throughout southern Minnesota, South Dakota, Nebraska and western Kansas. By Monday the precipitation should extend down into the panhandle of Texas. The eastern grain belt is expected to remain mostly dry over the next couple weeks.

 

Exporters sell 132,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2017/2018 marketing year. Exporters sell 1,080,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations, of which 960,000 MT is for 2017/2018 delivery and 120,000 MT for 2018/2019 delivery. -USDA

 

Yesterday’s trade action in November soybeans was positive after rebounding 8 ¼ cents off its low of 9.58 ½. Prices are now above Tuesday’s opening price and seems look like it wants to retest the most recent September 14th high of 9.78 ¼.  

 

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The EU announced that they will be lowering Argentina biodiesel anti-dumping duties to between 4.5 to 8.1 percent, down from 22 to 25.7 percent set in 2013. The recent ruling will allow Argentina to begin exporting biodiesel to the EU which is timely considering the U.S sharply increased their countervailing duties in August.

 

Ukraine’s First Deputy Ag Minister reported that Ukraine corn harvest is expected to be 27 million metric tons compared to 2016’s cropo of 28 million metric tons. The September WASDE report estimated Ukraine’s total corn production at 27.5 million metric tons which was down 1 MMT from their August forecast.    

Yesterday it was announced by Egypt’s state grain buyer GASC that they had purchased 175,000 metric tons of Russian Wheat in the tender that was issued on Monday.


 

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September 19, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 125

Overnight Session Shows Dec Corn Up and Soybeans Down

Latest Crop Progress Report Shows Corn is 7 Percent Harvested

In the overnight session the grains were mixed with December corn up 1 cent, November soybeans down ¼ cent and December Chicago Wheat up 2 ¼ cents. Scattered rains helped southern Minnesota, northwest Iowa, Indiana and Michigan yesterday with more precipitation expected today. The heaviest rains are expected to fall this evening in the Dakotas and Minnesota. The rain is coming at a time where it will have marginal benefit to the overall corn and soybean crop. Freeze risks remain low over the next two weeks.   

 

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The latest crop progress report showed that corn is 7 percent harvested compared to a four year average of 11 percent. Corn conditions held steady in all categories with 62 percent of the crop rated good-to-excellent. Soybeans were 4 percent harvested with a good-to-excellent rating of 59 which was down 1 point from last week.

 

There were a couple international tenders announced recently. The first was a South Korean tender to purchase up to 70,000 metric tons of corn from optional origins and the second being Egypt’s GASC to buy an unspecified amount of wheat for shipment between Oct 21st-31.     


 

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September 18, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 287

Friday’s NOPA Crush Numbers Better Than Expected

Grains Head into Morning Break Slightly Lower

Grains went into the morning break slightly lower after a night of two-sided trade. Corn and wheat were off 2 while soybeans was off a half.

 

USDA announced the sale of 261,000 MT Of soybeans to China and 126,000 MT to unknown destinations.

 

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Russian wheat export prices rose for a second consecutive week due to higher global benchmarks and the strengthening of the rouble against the dollar, analysts said on Monday. Black Sea prices for Russian wheat with 12.5 percent protein content and September delivery were at $185 a tonne on a free-on-board (FOB) basis at the end of last week, up $2 from the week earlier, agriculture consultancy IKAR said.

 

Argentina's 2017/18 soybean harvest is expected to fall by as much as 7 percent to 52 million tonnes compared with the 2016/17 crop year, local agriculture analysts said on Friday, citing low profit margins and excess water caused by heavy rains.

Friday saw NOPA soy crush estimates better than expected with 142.42 MB of soybeans crushed in August. This was the largest crush on record for August and beat expectations that averaged 137.5 with range of estimates from 133.1 to 144.7.

 

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September 15, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 244

Weekly Cash Comments

Weekly Cash Commentary for week ending 09/15/2017

Grain basis was mixed throughout the country as the convergence of old-crop/new-crop marketing seasons begins to cause some shifting patterns in basis. On the week, US average corn basis was fractionally higher while soybeans lost 3 cents a bushel.

 

For corn, early harvest in parts of the Southern US is starting to weigh on basis. At the same time recent weeks of active farming selling of old-crop corn has helped mute basis strength. However, end-buyers of corn started to show a bit more strength for corn with ethanol plants as a group up 1 cent on the week. In the WCB basis at some plants showed more buoyancy with gains of 3 to 5 cents fairly typical. For river markets, they were generally weaker by 4 cents.

 

Corn basis was buoyed mostly by ethanol plants which saw a 3-cent gain on the week. Much of the Western Cornbelt saw solid basis improvements on the week as farmers there face lower yield potential and hold back on any old-crop deals. Meanwhile at river terminals basis was up about 2 cents, on par with the broader movement across the US. The Gulf was mostly steady on the week.

 

For soybeans, basis levels were sharply lower in IA/MN/MO and S IN as buyers start to move basis levels to their new-crop bid. Soybean crush facilities were off 5 cents on the week while river terminals held mostly stable as strong export demand of late keeps a bid under the market.

 

In terms of the competitive landscape, IA & MN saw some smaller players heat up the market place with 10 cent advances on basis as late season farmer selling there has slowed.

 

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September 15, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 358

Grains Lower in the Overnight with Soybeans Giving Up 3 Cents

NOPA Crush Estimates To Be Released Today at 11 CST

Grains were lower overnight with soybeans giving up 3 cents after yesterday’s sharp 16 cent rally. Corn was also lower while wheat was unchanged going into the morning break.

 

EXPORTERS SELL 132,000 METRIC TONS OF SOYBEANS FOR DELIVERY TO CHINA DURING THE 2017/2018 MARKETING YEAR- USDA

 

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India's edible oil imports are likely to rise 1.6 percent from a year ago to 15.5 million tonnes in 2017/18 as overseas purchases of palm oil are expected to rise, a leading industry analyst Dorab Mistry said on Friday.
The world's biggest edible oil importer is likely to import 3.5 percent more of palm oil from a year ago in the marketing year starting Nov. 1, pushing up its overseas purchases to 9.65 million tonnes, Mistry told Globoil India conference in Mumbai.

 

Friday at 11 am CST NOPA crush estimates will be released. Traders look for the best August crush number in over a decade with 137.5 MB expected. That compares to 131.8 in August of 2016. Crush forecasts ranged from 133.1 to 144.7

Over the next few weeks US weather seems mostly benign as some rains in WCB may slow harvest but help aid soil moisture for winter wheat planting. Meteorologists see no real threat of an early freeze that would impact late season crop development.


 

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September 14, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 392

Strong Number for Beans on Export Sales Report This Morning from USDA

Grains Found Buying Strength in the Overnight Session

Grains found a bit of buying strength overnight with beans and wheat leading the complex higher on 5 cent gains while corn lagged behind on a 2-cent advance.

 

EXPORTERS SELL 198,000 METRIC TONS OF SOYBEANS FOR DELIVERY TO CHINA DURING THE 2017/2018 MARKETING YEAR- USDA

 

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Argentina's 2017/18 corn and wheat planted areas are seen at 6.2 million hectares and 5.4 million hectares, respectively, the Rosario Grains Exchange said on Wednesday, higher than the 5.85 million hectares and 5.3 million hectares planted in 2016/17. The 2017/18 wheat harvest will reach 17 million tonnes, the exchange said in its monthly report. The estimate for wheat planted area was slightly lower than the exchange's previous estimate for 5.45 million hectares due to excessively wet conditions in much of Argentina's grains belt.

Friday at 11 am CST NOPA crush estimates will be released. Traders look for the best August crush number in over a decade with 137.5 MB expected. That compares to 131.8 in August of 2016. Crush forecasts ranged from 133.1 to 144.7

 

This morning’s weekly export sales report from USDA showed a strong number for beans with 1.6 MMT sold versus 1 to 1-3 expected going into the report. Corn came in at the high side of the range while wheat fell below trade expectations.


 

Weekly Export Sales-

 

Actual

Estimated

Wheat - NC

316

350-550

Corn - NC

1,046

800-1,100

Soybeans - NC

1,612

1,000-1,300

 

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

September 13, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 287

Corn and Beans Advance in the Overnight Session

USDA Report on Tuesday Brought Bearish News to Grains

Grains were higher overnight with corn advancing 2 cents while soybeans and wheat added 4 cents.

 

EXPORTERS SELL 167,370 METRIC TONS OF SOYBEANS FOR DELIVERY TO MEXICO DURING THE 2017/2018 MARKETING YEAR- USDA

 

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USDA’s report on Tuesday brought more bearish news to the grains. Corn yields were increased by 0.4 to 169.9 for a 14.14 bil bushel crop. Bean yields also increased by 0.5 to 49.9 for a 4.43 billion bushel crop.

 

New crop crush was unchanged but exports were increased 25 to 2.250 bil bu. The China buying has exploded over the last few weeks but remains very far behind the pace set over the last two years. The increased old and new crop usage offset the higher bean yields.

Price action saw the market sell-off after the USDA report, hitting lows within the first hour, but since then have managed to pull back higher with beans adding 20-cents.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

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Weekly Cash Comments

September 15, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew

Grain basis was mixed throughout the country as the convergence of old-crop/new-crop marketing seasons begins to cause some shifting patterns in basis. On the week, US average corn basis was fractionally higher while soybeans lost 3 cents a bushel.

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