September 28, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 88
September 28, 2016 | Kevin McNew | Views: 76

Grains Gave Up Most of Yesterday’s Gains in the Overnight

Crude Oil is Holding on to Modest Gains

Grains gave up most of yesterday’s gains, pushing solidly into negative territory to start the day. In outside markets, equity indices were slightly lower while crude oil was trying to hold on to modest gains.

 

China will impose anti-subsidy duties of around 10% on imports of U.S. DDGs, the Commerce Ministry said in a preliminary ruling on Wednesday. The move was widely expected after the government announced a similar move on anti-dumping duties last week.

 

South Korea's Korea Corn Processing Industry Association (KOCPIA) has issued an international tender to purchase about 55,000 tonnes of optional-origin corn, European traders said on Wednesday.

This morning, USDA announced some big export deals. Export sales of 133,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China and another 211,171 MT to Unknown for the 2016/2017 marketing year. For corn, there was a 1,577,340 MT deal to Mexico, with 1,036,320 MT for delivery during the 2016/2017 marketing year and 541,020 MT for delivery during the 2017/2018 marketing year.


 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)


 

September 27, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 149
September 27, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 137

Grains Had Modest Positive Gains in the Overnight Session

Crude Oil was Sharply Lower

Grains had modest positive gains in the overnight session while crude oil was sharply lower and the US dollar pushed higher off of its recent lows.

 

On Monday, USDA reported that 15% of the US corn crop has been harvested, up from 9% last week but below the 5-year average of 19%. Likewise, soybean harvest progressed to 10% from 4% last week, but slightly below the 5-year average of 13%.

 

Rains this week are expected to be confined to the East with the Ohio River Valley, Mid Atlantic and Carolinas with rain of 3 to 6 inches expected in some East Coast areas. Next week brings a chance of showers next Tue/Wed in the Western Cornbelt which could limit harvest advances.

 

Soybean basis fell sharply on Monday as any premium between and old- and new-crop bean deliveries has all but evaporated at most markets. Potentially adding more pressure to interior basis is the closure of three MS river locks in S IA and N MO due to flooding. The locks are expected to close later this week due to flooding.

Crude oil prices edged down on Tuesday as a jittery market reacted to statements by Iran that dimmed hopes for an agreement by major oil producers to cap or freeze output. As energy ministers arrived in Algiers for a summit on energy, Iran Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh called the meeting set for Wednesday “consultative,” adding to concerns that OPEC member nations won’t adopt production limits to prop up the sagging price of oil.


 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

September 26, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 189

Chicago Soybeans Futures Edge down on Monday

Russian wheat export prices rose last week for the first time since mid-August


 

Chicago soybean futures edged down on Monday to trade near a one-week low as weather forecasts suggested corp conditions would be dry enough this week to let farmers make headway in gathering what is expected to be a record US crop.

 

Heavy rains and flooding covered a broad area of the northern Midwest this past week. This halted the harvest of corn and soybeans and forced the closure of at least two Iowa crop processing plants. Parts of northern Iowa and southern Minnesota received several inches of rain at midweek; two-day rain totals topped 10 inches in some areas. The region is expected to see two days of drier weather before more rain moves in this week.

 

Cargill stopped taking deliveries of corn and soybeans at its processing plants in Cedar Rapids, IA due to flooding in the area. The soy plant is scheduled to be closed through Wednesday. Farmers are waiting for their fields to dry out before they can resume harvest.

 

The US Justice Department is looking into concerns that global consolidation among major seed and agricultural chemical companies may squeeze supplies of the building blocks for widely used genetically modified seeds, a farm group said. These federal inquiries started after Dow Chemical said in December that it would seek to merge with DuPont in a $130 billion deal.

Russian wheat export prices rose last week for the first time since mid-August, buoyed by demand from Egypt after it dropped its policy of not importing wheat containing the ergot fungus, agricultural consultancy IKAR said. Russia exported 7.8 million tonnes of wheat between July 1 and Sept 21, the agriculture ministry said. Grain exports were down 9 percent year on year.


 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

September 22, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Feed and Grain | Views: 450
September 21, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 209
September 21, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 179

Grains Dip Lower Overnight

Crude and Equities in Positive Territory

Grains dipped lower overnight while crude oil and equities were in positive territory to start the day.

 

After finding a one-month high yesterday, soybeans turned lower as active farmer selling yesterday kept basis levels softening. Corn tried for the 4th time in two months to clear the $3.42 area in yesterday’s trade but settled below the $3.40 mark and is off further today.

 

Morocco's grain agency, ONICL, said on Wednesday it had bought 235,000 MT of U.S. soft wheat under a preferential tariff agreement. Earlier this month, ONICL launched a tender to buy 300,000 tonnes of U.S. soft wheat, 300,000 tonnes of EU soft and 45,000 of EU durum, with shipments that should arrive at Moroccan ports by Dec. 31. The North African kingdom has agreements with the United States and the European Union to import certain types of grain at preferential tariffs, with volumes depending on the size of the local harvest.


 

Investors will watch the U.S. Federal Reserve policy decision later on Wednesday. Expectations of a rate increase have all but evaporated after some weak economic data. The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged, but may signal year-end hike. The Fed's rate-setting committee will release its policy statement at 1 p.m. CDT. Fed Chair Janet Yellen is scheduled to hold her quarterly press conference half an hour later.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

September 20, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 390
September 20, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 224

Grains Start the Day in Positive Territory

US Dollar Slightly Higher

Grains were again in positive territory to start the day with soybeans leading the complex higher. In outside markets, the US dollar was slightly higher as were equities while crude oil was slipping lower going into the start of the day session.

 

USDA’s crop progress report showed on change in the condition of the US corn and soybean crops, as both held steady on the week at 74% and 73% good-to-excellent, respectively. Corn harvest came in a little below expectations with 9% of the crop harvested versus an average trade expectation of 11%. Soybean plantings were at 4%, which was inline with expectations but slightly below the 5-year average pace of 5% harvested at this time of year.

 

Russia is expected to harvest a grain crop of between 110 and 116 MMT this year, Agriculture Minister Alexander Tkachev told a conference in Moscow on Tuesday. The country's grain exports may total 35-40 million tonnes in the 2016/17 marketing year which started on July 1, he added. The ministry had previously expected the crop in a range of 113 million to 116 million tonnes

This morning Stats Canada revised higher their wheat crop forecast.  They pegged all wheat output up 14.3% to 31.32 MMT vs 27.39 MMT in 2015. Canola output was seen as unchanged at 18.31 MMT as compared to the same output level in 2015.

 

The U.S. Federal Reserve's two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting on interest rates begins today. The meeting concludes on Wednesday with an interest rate decision due at 1 p.m. CDT.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)


 

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