March 02, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 232

US Dollar Continues to Climb

USDA's January Soy Crush Released Yesterday

Grains softened overnight after two days of heft advances. In outside markets, the US Dollar hit its highest mark since Jan 11 while crude oil put in a one-month low.

 

After the close yesterday, USDA’s January soy crush was 170.6 MB, slightly better than expected of 169.3 MB. Year-to-date crush for the marketing year is up 3.3% over last year which would imply the remainder of the year needs to hit 1.6% to reach USDA’s estimate. In light of SA competition and weak soymeal demand the USDA forecast seems appropriate.

 

The European Commission forecast that usable soft wheat production in the 28-country European Union would reach 143.0 MMT in 2017/18, up 6.5% from 134.3 MMT in 16/17. In its first projections for the next cereal crop season, the Commission forecast that EU soft wheat exports would rise to 28.9 MMT in 2017/18 from an expected 24.0 MMT in 2016/17. Weekly export sales this morning were mostly disappointing. Both old- and new-crop corn were below expectations. Wheat and soybeans were within expectations but new-crop were below expectations.

 

Weekly Export Sales-

                            Actual         Expected

Wheat - OC             353             300-500

Wheat - NC              99              100-300

Corn - OC               692              700-900

Corn - NC                20               150-350

Soybeans-OC         427               300-500

Soybeans-NC             0                  0-200

 

The US Dollar continues to climb as Fed Watchers put a higher probability on a Fed rate hike in March. The jobs report slated for tomorrow morning will be widely watched for indications on the economy’s health.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

March 01, 2017 | Kevin McNew | Views: 137
March 01, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 242

US Dollar Hits a 7-Week High on Wednesday

India is likely to impose an import tax of 25% on wheat

Grains continued their rally into Wednesday finding more buying strength overnight.

 

Yesterday’s action was spurred by rumors of a White House executive order that would allow E15 gasoline to be sold more easily during summertime months as well as a potential biodiesel credit to be reinstated and limit methyl ester from Argentina. However, by mid-day the White House denied any such action was in play leaving the soy market up 15 but 20-below its high of the day and corn off 12 from its high.

 

Overnight, Japan has said they will tap into 330,000 MT of corn from emergency stockpiles after inventories fell to critically low levels due to a delay in shipments from the United States. Overnight Egypt has said they have enough locked-in wheat supplies to cover their needs for the next 4 months due to recent buying activity, including a 535,000 MT deal on Monday. India is likely to impose an import tax of 25% on wheat, reinstating the tariff after a gap of nearly three months following big purchases from overseas in recent months.

 

Brazil saw scattered showers overnight. Southern & Western Brazil could see more rains in mid-March which could be detrimental, but overall yield potential continues favorable. The US  HRW belt sees no change in its dry outlook for the first week of March.

The dollar hit a seven-week high on Wednesday on hopes the U.S. Federal Reserve would lift rates this month, after hawkish comments from two of its top officials overshadowed U.S. President Donald Trump's first major policy speech to Congress.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

February 28, 2017 | Kevin McNew | Views: 152
February 28, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 229

Winter Wheat Ratings are out for Select States

US Dollar Continues to Weaken

Turnaround Tuesday was in check this morning with grains turning higher in early trade as beans lead the complex with an 8-cent advance. The US Dollar continued to weaken as did crude oil adding to yesterday’s losses.

 

Winter wheat ratings were out for select states after the close on Monday. HRW wheat states continue to see poor conditions especially in the Southern Plains relative to last year. The outlook for moisture in the next month is limited with temperatures expected to be above normal, helping push the crop out of dormancy.

 

Winter Wheat Crop Conditions (Good-to-Excellent Rating)

 

State

  % G-E Feb

  % G-E Jan

   % G-E Last Year

CO

  40

  36

   45

IL

  72

  74

   58

KS

  43

  44   

   59

MT

  51

  70

   53

NE

  44

  47

   59

ND

  81

  82

   55

OK

  43

  33

   68

SD

  57

  62

   69

TX

  34

  30

   40

 

 

Egypt was in the market overnight for wheat with the lowest offer submitted being French wheat at $197; the results should be out later today. Iraq was also in the market for wheat while a South Korea feed buyer was shopping for soymeal.

 

China’s crush rate has been ticking up as hog profitability has improved slightly. Imports of soybeans into China are expected to be a strong 7 MMT when published at the end of March. Brazilian FOB bean prices continue to hold firm at a $2.5/MT premium to US FOB prices vs last year when Brazil was at a $12/MT discount. Slow farmer selling in Brazil continues to keep bean supplies to the world market somewhat limited.


 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

February 27, 2017 | Kevin McNew | Views: 220
February 27, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 197

POTUS Economic Agenda speech set for Tuesday

Grain Markets Show Little Direction to Start the Week

Grain markets continued to show little direction to start the week as soybeans were higher while wheat was lower. Corn spent most of the night session fractionally higher. In outside markets crude oil was higher.

 

On Friday, USDA’s cattle on feed numbers matched closely what analysts had been expecting. The February Cattle on Feed inventory was reported at 10 Million head, 101% of a year earlier while January placements were 111% of a year earlier.
 

Palm oil continued to sell-off overnight as did China’s soybeans. On Friday, January soybean imports into China were reported at 7.66 MMT That’s off from 9.0 last month but above the 5.6 imports of January 2016. Marketing year-to-date China's soy imports are up 5.5% over the same 5-month period last year while USDA has penciled in a 3.3% advance for the year.

 

South America weather was yet again favorable over the weekend. Weekend rains favored north 1/2 Brazil corn/soy. Center-West Brazil rains are expected this week to support safrinha corn. The 6-15 day rains cause minor fieldwork interruptions farther south. In Argentina, weekend showers favored S. & far W. The 6-10 day shows a break in rain which should allow wet spots in NW Buenos Aires to ease.

The dollar edged up from a 2-1/2-week low on Monday but traders await guidance from U.S. President Trump on his economic agenda. Trump is set make his first major policy address to the U.S. Congress on Tuesday, and is expected to give some details on his planned infrastructure spending and tax reform.  Traders will look for action plans vs vague ideas in the speech after 3 months of banking on Trump’s economic stimulus trade.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

February 24, 2017 | Kevin McNew | Views: 164
February 24, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 116

Weekly Cash Comments

Weekly Cash Commentary for week ending 02/24/2017

Grain basis was mostly flat this week even with a sharp sell-off in futures prices.

 

In corn, there was some modest strength in Western Cornbelt processors. River terminals however saw more strength as basis levels improved 2 cents a bushel on average.

 

Conversely, soybean basis slipped by 1 cent a bushel while soybean plants were mostly unchanged for the week.

 

First notice day for grain is on Tuesday which will see grain buyers rolling out of March contracts.  With little need for extra pipeline supplies it seems likely that buyers may use the roll to reduce basis.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

February 24, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 233

Grains Mixed in the Overnight with Soybeans Turning Higher

Crude Oil and the US Dollar were Lower

Grains were mixed overnight with soybeans turning higher for the first time in 6 days while wheat and corn dipped lower. In outside markets, crude oil and the US dollar were lower in early trade.

 

USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum released carryout estimates for the 2017 US crops. Yesterday, USDA forecasted corn plantings at only 90 million acres, off 4 million from last year but this morning’s carryout projections show only a slim 105 MB drop in ending stocks to 2,215 MB from the current year forecast of 2,320. In soybeans USDA keep ending stocks the same year-on-year at 420 MB even with a 4.7 million acre increase as they expect soy yields to average 48 vs 52 last year. Wheat did see a sharp drop in carryout which USDA pegs at 905 MB for next year vs 1,138 this year.

 

In South America, rains favored central and southern Brazil yesterday benefiting drier corn/soy areas with harvest interruptions very limited. This weekend rains will shift to the drier NE. Central and west Brazil should have limited rains until mid next week aiding corn/soy harvest and safrinha seeding. Showers were isolated in Arg. corn/soy yesterday but late next week should see new moisture aiding corn/soy filling but raising risk of early harvest delays.

Export sales were disappointing for both corn and beans as old- and new-crop deals were below trade expectations.  

 

Weekly Export Sales-

 

Actual

Expected

Wheat - OC

451

350-550

Wheat - NC

256

0-50

Corn - OC

743

800-1,100

Corn - NC

264

300-500

Soybeans-OC

413

550-850

Soybeans-NC

28

100-300

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

Page 5 of 136 pages ‹ First  < 3 4 5 6 7 >  Last ›

More Articles

Weekly Cash Comments

March 24, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew

Grain basis continued to show little upside life this week even with the ongoing slide in futures prices. For the week, spot corn basis across the country managed a 1.3 cent advance while soybean basis was up 0.8 cents a bushel.

[Read More]