October 20, 2016 | Tech Talk | Charlie Trauger | Views: 623

Tech Talk Adds New Author

Charlie Trauger draws on his production ag and software background to provide perspective on technologies affecting commercial agriculture

Tech Talk Adds New Author
Photo by Blue Coat Photos

My name is Charlie Trauger and I have been involved in trading, production agriculture, software technology, and sales/business development for the last 31 years. The opportunity to participate in the ‘Tech Talk’ Blog for Feed & Grain magazine is a chance for me to share technical ideas and products that might affect the grain and feed industry. 

Charlie Trauger, GlobalView Software, Inc.

I live in a small town in south central Nebraska and work full time for GlobalView Software, Inc. in Chicago (yes, I commute once in a while). I am also involved in part-time farming and ranching on the family farm that has been around for 135 years. I love living in an agricultural community as well as the chance to work and travel to large cities while doing exactly what I love, merging technology and agriculture.   

Why I am blogging on Feed & Grain's Tech Talk?

With both of my jobs, I get the opportunity to review and utilize new technology and hope to share what I see, both current and future for the grain and feed industry. I have been involved in startups and many new ventures related to technology and have found that just because you can do something does not mean you should! I hope to relay some of those past and future experiences to the Feed & Grain audience for at a minimum, another source of information, and perhaps some opinion of what can affect your businesses in this area.

What will I blog about?

I spend a lot of time in the business development area in agricultural technology, and plan to share what might be beneficial to our industry. Things like drones, block chain software, tools to assist with risk management, compliance, ransomware, etc. and how they might make our lives easier, or perhaps the other way around. 

How can you leave feedback?

I encourage feedback, comments and criticism. I don’t know it all and have a desire to hear from all of you. It’s how I learn as some of my thoughts and ideas won’t always work for you. You can reach me at (312) 628-2977, or email at charlie.trauger@gvsi.com.  Twitter @charlietraug and on LinkedIn. Sorry Facebook users, I recently shut this account down. I read a quote from someone who said “Life is long if you know what to do with it.” That prompted me to review the time I spent vs. value received and well, now I don’t know what my friends had for dinner, but have much more time to spend on other valuable activities. 

Albert Einstein stated “I fear the day that technology will surpass our human interaction. The world will have a generation of idiots.”  Looking at people in public with phones pasted to their faces, we might be getting close here! I am heading outdoors now to say hi to my neighbor, check back with me next week.  

October 20, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 238

Corn and Soybean Futures Rise for a Second Session

Crude Oil Rise to a 15-Month High on Wednesday

Chicago corn and soybean futures rose for a second straight session on Thursday as favorable demand news helped curb supply pressure from an advancing US harvest that is tipped to bring in record crops.

 

China, the world's top soybean importer, has been snapping up US soybean cargoes in recent weeks. Soybeans drew additional support after the USDA confirmed that private exporters sold 185,000 tonnes of US soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2016/17 marketing year.

 

The world faces plentiful wheat supplies in coming months and this is coming into attention again. After its recent rises, US wheat needs a price pullback for export competitiveness, said Stefan Vogel, head of agricultural commodity markets research at Rabobank.

 

Corn drew support from weekly data on ethanol. US Energy information Administration said on Wednesday that ethanol production last week increased by 36,000 barrels per day while stocks of the biofuel fell by 351,000 barrels.

Crude oil prices rose to a 15-month high on Wednesday after a US inventory draw-down, which boosted energy shares. Energy stocks led the way up on Wall Street, boosted by the higher oil prices.


The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)


 

October 19, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 221

Big Rally for Soybeans Yesterday

Grains Mixed in the Overnight

Grains were mixed overnight with limited action in the trade.

 

Yesterday saw a big rally in soybeans with prices reaching their highest mark in 3 weeks before prices lost ground, closing lower on the day. Yesterday saw some big hits to spot bean basis with losses at 5 to 10 cents at some key river terminals and processors.  Basis levels at interior crushing plants are running about 25 cents below normal for this time of year while river terminals are only off about 15 from the historical norm thanks to surging exports and lower barge freight.

 

In climate news, there is a growing consensus that La Nina may be developing as indicators are showing a shift . The Climate Prediction Center says there is a 70 percent chance that La Niña will develop during the Northern Hemisphere autumn 2016 and there a 55 percent chance it will persist during winter 2016-17. This is up from last month’s forecast of a 40 to 45 percent chance of development. The growing season for corn and soybeans in Argentina and southern Brazil can become unfavorably dry during a La Niña phase, and the US is prone to hotter than normal temperatures in the Midwest.

Crude oil was up sharply eclipsing $51 a barrel for the first time in 3 days. Yesterday, private firm API reported U.S. crude stockpiles fell 3.8 million barrels in the week to Oct. 14, to 467.1 million barrels. EIA official government will be released later this morning.

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

October 18, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 249
October 18, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 173

Grains in Negative Territory

Crude Oil Holds on to Positive Gains

Grains were in negative territory to start the day.  In outside markets, equity futures were sharply higher going into the morning trade session while crude oil also was holding onto positive gains.

 

On Monday, USDA’s attache to Argentina forecast the soybean crop there to be 55 MMT, below USDA’s official forecast of 57 MMT.  2016/2017 expected area harvested is revised down to 19.3 million hectares due to greater competition from alternative crops - corn and sunflower - and lower than expected wheat plantings resulting in lower 2nd crop soybean area. Adverse weather conditions, crop damage, and harvest delays forced a number of producers to abandon their plans to plant wheat for the 2016/2017 winter crop season.

 

Yesterday’s USDA crop progress report showed 62 percent of the soybean crop harvested versus 44 percent last week and on track with the 5-year average of 63 percent. Corn harvest grew to 46 percent this week versus 35 percent last week and 49 percent 5-yr avg.

 

This morning, USDA announced a deal for 706,500 MT of soybeans to China for the 2016/17 marketing year. Japan's Ministry of Agriculture is seeking to buy a total of 132,015 tonnes of food quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that will close late on Thursday.

Corn and soybean futures rose for a third consecutive session on Monday, with prices underpinned by short-covering and strong demand. Malaysian palm oil surged to its highest level in about six months Monday, gaining on forecasts of weaker production growth for the month of October. In the last two sessions, palm oil prices have rallied 5.7 percent which has helped the soy complex as well.

 

Oil prices rose on Tuesday, helped by a weaker dollar and the notion that global markets oversupply may be moderating, ahead of a November meeting of OPEC producers that could decide to cut production. A proposal by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to cut or cap output helped lift crude prices above $50, but not much more because market participants doubt the cartel's ability to strike and implement a concrete deal. But several analysts say a two-year global supply glut could be receding if the latest oil inventories are taken into account. They say that stocks are not as high as usual ahead of the winter fuels season.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

October 17, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 259
October 17, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 314

Grains on a 3 Day Roll of Advancing Prices

Crude Oil Modestly Higher

Grains started the week higher trying to make 3 days in a row of advancing prices. In outside markets, crude oil was modestly higher while the US dollar index was holding solid gains going into the morning trade session.

 

Corn and soybean futures rose for a third consecutive session on Monday, with prices underpinned by short-covering and strong demand. Malaysian palm oil surged to its highest level in about six months Monday, gaining on forecasts of weaker production growth for the month of October. In the last two sessions, palm oil prices have rallied 5.7 percent which has helped the soy complex as well.

 

Saudi Arabia's main state wheat buying agency, the Saudi Grains Organization (SAGO), said on Monday it purchased 610,000 MT of hard wheat in a tender. The accepted origins in the tender were the European Union, North and South America and Australia, at the seller's option.

Baker Hughes showed U.S. drillers added four rigs in the week to Oct. 14. It was the 16th week in a row that oil drillers had gone without making cuts, indicating more production to come. A firmer dollar also weighed on prices, as an expected hike in U.S. interest rates later this year drove the U.S. currency to a seven-month high against a basket of currencies.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

October 14, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 225
October 14, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 354

Weekly Cash Comments

Weekly Cash Commentary for week ending 10/14/2016

Corn and soybeans saw mixed numbers in the cash market this week.

 

National corn basis was virtually unchanged from last week. Ethanol plants were off slightly, down 1/2 cent per bushel. Corn along the river saw surprising movement, up 6 cents per bushel; holding on to the only gains this week.

 

Soybeans were off an average of 3 cent per bushel from last Thursday; this marks the sixth week in a row of lower cash movement. Crush facilities were off another 4 1/2 cents this week, matching last week’s losses. Soybeans along the river were the biggest loser this week off 6 cents per bushel.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

 

October 14, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 184

Grains Stronger in the Overnight Session

Equity Futures, US Dollar and Crude Oil Also Higher

Grains were stronger overnight adding to yesterday’s double-digit gains. In outside markets, equity futures, the US dollar and crude oil were also higher

 

Grains were benefiting from a short-covering rally, fueled in part by a pick-up in wheat trade as well as stronger than expected corn basis as farmers are slow to sell in the cash market. Yesterday’s deal for 1 MMT of wheat between Syria and Russia helped ignite a 20-cent move in the wheat market and this morning Dec wheat closes in on resistance at $4.25, a price level not seen since late August.

 

Overnight, Algeria's state grains agency bought 450,000 to 500,000 MT of milling wheat from optional origins in a tender which closed on Thursday.It has been widening its sources of wheat in recent months after its traditional supplier France suffered weather damage to its harvest this year.

 

This morning’s USDA export sales report showed better than expected soybean sales of 1.4 MMT, topping expectations which ranged from 0.9 to 1.2 MMT. Corn came in at the low end of expectations while wheat was at the upper end of expectations.

Global stocks and the dollar edged up on Friday, erasing some losses from the previous day, as stronger-than-expected Chinese inflation data eased some concerns about the health of the world's second-biggest economy. The US dollar index rose 0.3% but is off slightly from a seven month high touched on Thursday.   Retail sales data and remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren were due later in the day. The Fed's minutes from its September meeting prompted investors to raise their bets on a December rate rise, and fuelled the rally in the greenback this week.

 

WEEKLY EXPORT SALES

                                      Actual       Expected

Corn                                  873       800-1,100

Soybeans                        1,417       900-1,200

Wheat                               491          350-550

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

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