Kevin and Cody discuss the cash basis movement on a national level this Friday.
Corn and bean futures prices found strength this week and the cash market added on to the gains with a 2 cent basis increase on average across the US this week.
In corn, ethanol plants were a dominant driver adding 4 cents a bushel as a group as ethanol production continues to accelerate. Weekly ethanol output was at 946,000 barrels per day, a marketing year high, and puts year-to-date output 6.1% ahead of last year's pace. USDA has only a 0.3% increase expected for annual corn use for ethanol. Export markets were also up with the Gulf port basis advancing 3 cents a bushel. Weekly export inspections were at 517,000 MT on par with expectations but a bit slim for this time of year.
By comparison, soybean export inspections continue to set a blistering pace with 2,481,000 MT for the week and cumulative exports at 13.5 MMT compared to 11.8 MMT for the same period last year. This is 14.4% higher than 2013 while USDA is only factoring in a 4.4% increase year on year. However, basis levels at the Gulf this week were flat with some river terminals in the Upper Midwest seeing lower basis as barge rates there moved higher. Soy plants were up as a group gaining 3.4 cents a bushel, but some areas of Minnesota and Iowa were weaker with 5 to 10 cent declines being fairly common by plants in this region.
Kevin and Cody discuss the positive day in the grains and talk about some of the drivers behind the scenes. Cody discusses some key price levels to keep an eye on if corn continues its move higher tomorrow.
Cody and Kevin talk about what is behind the soybean rally and how much longer it might last. Kevin discussed the cash market reaction and Cody talks about some price targets that producers should be paying close attention to.
Grains are drifting lower as trade chatter looks for Argentine meal to hit U.S. shores
Grain prices are moving lower in Chicago, with corn down 4, soybeans off 10 and Chicago wheat down 4 cents. We are past first notice day for November 2014 soybean contracts, please begin trading the January contract to avoid any issues with delivery.
Soymeal futures are trading down a percent in the early going on trade rumors that Argentine soymeal is U.S. bound following last week’s huge rally in price. Harvest is the last time we would expect soymeal imports, but the sharply inverted U.S. futures market has given domestic users the incentive to look abroad.
Northern Brazil received precipitation over the weekend but the trade remains concerns about output moving forward. Rainfall totals have been 30% behind normal during October, delaying planting and forcing some producers to replant. The 7 day outlook has turned a bit more dry over the weekend – we will continue to monitor the pace of planting in Mato Grasso.
Several private analysts will be releasing their updated crop projections ahead of the November 10th USDA report. FC Stone will be out today and Informa will give their updated numbers later in the week. Grains have traded sharply higher over the last month with very little consideration for current 2014/15 ending stock estimates.
Grain markets found heightened volatility this week with corn futures posting gains while soybeans traded lower. In the cash market, basis for both corn and soybeans were unchanged on average across the country this week, but that masks a fair amount of movement by end users and exporters....
Grains fell sharply in the overnight session with wheat leading the slide lower on a 19-cent decline. This follows yesterday’s 24-cent fall from its high on the March contract of 6.77. For corn, prices were off 6 cents in the night trade while beans fell 7 cents.
In the overnight session the grains are trading sharply higher with corn up 5 ¼ cents, soybeans up 7 ¼ cents and wheat up 15 ½ cents this morning. This morning we saw large single day reportable sales of 126,000 metric tons of corn to unknown destinations, 1.5 million metric tons of...
In the overnight session corn, soybean and wheat are all trading higher. Corn improved 3 ¼ cents, soybeans is up 3 ½ cents and wheat is trading 13 ½ cents higher this morning. The wheat market is continuing focus on the developments in Russia as yesterday’s announcement that the Veterinary...