November 14, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 398

Cash Market Update

Kevin and Cody discuss the cash basis movement on a national level this Friday.

Corn and bean futures prices found strength this week and the cash market added on to the gains with a 2 cent basis increase on average across the US this week.

 

In corn, ethanol plants were a dominant driver adding 4 cents a bushel as a group as ethanol production continues to accelerate. Weekly ethanol output was at 946,000 barrels per day, a marketing year high, and puts year-to-date output 6.1% ahead of last year's pace. USDA has only a 0.3% increase expected for annual corn use for ethanol.  Export markets were also up with the Gulf port basis advancing 3 cents a bushel.  Weekly export inspections were at 517,000 MT on par with expectations but a bit slim for this time of year.

 

By comparison, soybean export inspections continue to set a blistering pace with 2,481,000 MT for the week and cumulative exports at 13.5 MMT compared to 11.8 MMT for the same period last year.  This is 14.4% higher than 2013 while USDA is only factoring in a 4.4% increase year on year. However, basis levels at the Gulf this week were flat with some river terminals in the Upper Midwest seeing lower basis as barge rates there moved higher.  Soy plants were up as a group gaining 3.4 cents a bushel, but some areas of Minnesota and Iowa were weaker with 5 to 10 cent declines being fairly common by plants in this region.

 

November 13, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 387

Whats behind corns move higher?

Kevin and Cody discuss the positive day in the grains and talk about some of the drivers behind the scenes. Cody discusses some key price levels to keep an eye on if corn continues its move higher tomorrow.

November 12, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 543

Soybeans Dip Lower Today

Cody and Kevin discuss the effects of the sudden rise in price of Argentinian Soymeal. Kevin also discusses implications the end of the cease fire in Ukraine.

Soybeans Dip Lower Today
November 11, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 242

Soybean Rally Continues

Cody and Kevin talk about what is behind the soybean rally and how much longer it might last. Kevin discussed the cash market reaction and Cody talks about some price targets that producers should be paying close attention to.

November 10, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 236

Mixed Markets Today

Tune in to hear Kevin and Cody discuss how export sales and the WASDE affected the markets today.

November 07, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 330

Markets mixed going into the weekend

Cody and Logan talk about the trade action on Friday and what producers should be thinking about as they come out of Harvest. Cody also digs into the average basis changes seen at the national level.

November 06, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 305

Big Soybean Exports Support Market

Soybean exports of 1.61 million metric tons support today's market. Tune in for a complete break-down as well as a discussion of the sustainability of the rising prices.

November 05, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 246

Grains Bounce Back

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November 04, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 346
November 03, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 390

Talk of Soymeal Imports Pressures Beans

Grains are drifting lower as trade chatter looks for Argentine meal to hit U.S. shores

Talk of Soymeal Imports Pressures Beans

Grain prices are moving lower in Chicago, with corn down 4, soybeans off 10 and Chicago wheat down 4 cents. We are past first notice day for November 2014 soybean contracts, please begin trading the January contract to avoid any issues with delivery.

 

Soymeal futures are trading down a percent in the early going on trade rumors that Argentine soymeal is U.S. bound following last week’s huge rally in price. Harvest is the last time we would expect soymeal imports, but the sharply inverted U.S. futures market has given domestic users the incentive to look abroad.

 

Northern Brazil received precipitation over the weekend but the trade remains concerns about output moving forward. Rainfall totals have been 30% behind normal during October, delaying planting and forcing some producers to replant. The 7 day outlook has turned a bit more dry over the weekend – we will continue to monitor the pace of planting in Mato Grasso. 

 

Several private analysts will be releasing their updated crop projections ahead of the November 10th USDA report. FC Stone will be out today and Informa will give their updated numbers later in the week. Grains have traded sharply higher over the last month with very little consideration for current 2014/15 ending stock estimates.

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