November 03, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 190
October 27, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 221

Soybeans Continue Their Climb Reaching 2-Month Highs

Oil Prices Fell on Wednesday

Soybeans continued to climb reaching fresh 2-month highs and above its 10-day moving average while corn and wheat also added to yesterday’s gains.

 

Soymeal was sharply higher yesterday, helping fuel the bean rally while domestic prices for soybeans are up over 50-cents a bushel in the past few days, doubling up the US gains. Traders are looking for big US exports to China to continue as crush margins and import margins for beans the best they’ve been in a year. Also with the harvest now likely past 80% harvested it seems bear positions may be leaving the building.

 

South Korea's largest foodmaker, NOFI, purchased about 273,000 MT of corn in a tender which closed on Wednesday. The corn was bought in four consignments which can be sourced from the United States, South America or worldwide origins. Taiwan's maize industry procurement association, MFIG, purchased 65,000 tonnes of corn to be sourced optionally from the United States or Brazil in an international tender which closed on Thursday.

Oil prices fell nearly 2% on Wednesday on growing doubts OPEC will cut production, giving back the gains after the EIA inventory data. US crude
stockpiles fell 553,000 barrels last week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said, a result contrary to the 1.7 million-barrel build that analysts polled by Reuters had forecast.

 

Weekly export sales

                                     Actual     Expected

Corn                                  799      900-1,200

Soybeans                        2,045   1,500-2,500

Wheat                               646        350-550

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

October 26, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 576
October 26, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 183

Soybeans Continue to Climb Higher

US Dollar and Equity Futures Lower

Soybeans continued to ratchet higher while corn and wheat had some modest gains in sympathy. In outside markets, the US dollar and equity futures were lower and crude was sharply off.

 

Palm oil continued to rally overnight hitting a two-month high helping push soybeans higher and approaching the $10-mark. Egypt overnight announced they bought 420,000 MT of wheat from Russia and Romania. Although there was a US offer thrown into the pool, but none was accepted.

 

A South Korean feed maker is said to be shopping for 276,000 MT of corn and 69,000 MT of wheat for early 2017 delivery.

 

In South American weather, Brazil looks good for ample moisture over the next several weeks. Argentina will be dry thru the weekend but rains are expected to bring beneficial moisture early next week.

Crude oil took a hit as API stocks data after Tuesday’s close showed a 5 million barrel build in oil inventories and a nearly 2 million barrel build. For today’s official EIA data, the trade is only looking for a 750,000 barrel build in oil and a 1.25 million barrel decline in gas inventories.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

October 25, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 204
October 25, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 223

Corn and Wheat Hovering Around Unchanged in the Overnight

Barge Rates Shot Up Yesterday

Grains were mixed overnight as soybeans were tending weaker while corn and wheat were hovering around unchanged going into the morning break. In outside markets, equity futures and crude oil were in slightly positive territory.

 

On Monday USDA reported that the US corn crop was 61% harvested versus 46% last week and 63% for the 5-year average. Soybeans was 76% harvested versus 62% last week and is on par with the 5-year average.

 

In overnight action, Egypt tendered for more wheat and 7 offers were made with the lowest coming in at $182.74/MT from Russia, although there was one US offer by Cargill for $185. South Korea was also in the market for 70,000 MT of corn. This morning USDA announced a 516,000 MT sale of US soybeans to China.

Barge rates shot up yesterday along the river with gains of 10 cents or more a bushel in barge freight costs. River terminals had steep losses in basis, especially soybeans which saw CME delivery point markets lose 15 cents on spot basis. Current basis levels at CME soybean delivery facilities are running 25 cents below normal as we head closer to first notice day on Monday for November futures.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

October 24, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 256
October 24, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 212

Soybeans Start the Week in Positive Territory

Ideal Harvest Conditions this past Weekend

Soybeans started the week in positive territory posting double-digit gains and at one point hitting the $9.99 mark in the night session. Corn and wheat were slumping however.

 

Malaysian palm oil futures climbed to their strongest levels in a week in early trade on Monday. Palm oil futures for January were up 3.4 percent. Nearby Dec soybean oil futures were also surging, gaining 2.4 percent in the night trade.

 

Weekend weather was nearly ideal for harvest with rain keeping confined to the far East and Northwest of the country, while the Midwest was dry. Northern U.S. Midwest will receive rain Tuesday into Thursday of this week
With totals of 0.50 to 2.50 inches likely. US corn harvest is estimated to be  60-65% completed and beans at 75-80%.

Russian wheat export prices rose for the fifth consecutive week on continuing demand from Egypt, the world's largest wheat importer, analysts said on Monday. Egypt's state grain buyer acquired 120,000 tonnes of Russian wheat on Oct. 20 in its third tender since the start of October.
Black Sea prices for Russian wheat with 12.5 percent protein content were at $175 a tonne on a free-on-board (FOB) basis at the end of last week, up $1 from a week earlier, Russian agricultural consultancy IKAR said in a note.


The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

October 21, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 520

Weekly Cash Comments

Weekly Cash Commentary for week ending 10/21/2016

Corn and soybeans were off yet again but potentially nearing a bottom.

 

National corn basis was off by nearly 1 cent per bushel this week.  Ethanol facilities were again the big movers this week, off by 2 1/4 cents. River basis is beginning to find support from exports and low barge freight.

Cash soybeans were off an average of 2 cents per bushel this week. Crushing plants and river terminals were off by 3/4 of a cent. Monday saw some big hits to spot bean basis with losses at 5 to 10 cents at some key river terminals and processors.  Basis levels at interior crushing plants are running about 25 cents below normal for this time of year while river terminals are only off about 15 from the historical norm thanks to surging exports and lower barge freight.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

October 21, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 165

Export Sales Well Above Range of Trade Expectations

Chicago Soybeans Post Third Week of Gains

Chicago soybeans were set to post a third week of gains today after strong demand underpinned prices of the oilseed and offset pressure from a record US harvest and a rising dollar.

 

Corn and wheat are on track to fall slightly over the week as abundant global grain supplies continue to keep a lid on the cereal markets. The USDA reported export sales of US soybeans in the latest week at just over 2 million tonnes, well above the range of trade expectations for the 1.0 million to 1.3 million tonnes. The agency also said private exporters sold 192,000 tonnes of US soybeans to unknown destinations.

 

Private analytics firm, Informa Economics, projected a 5.7 percent increase in US soybean plantings for 2017 and a 3.7 percent decline in corn plantings. Informa forecast 2017 soybean plantings at 88.487 million acres, an all-time high if realized. The firm projected US corn plantings at 90.971 million acres.

Global stocks were set for their first weekly gain in four weeks on Friday and the dollar rose to its highest since March. Oil edged higher as Russia reiterated its commitment to joining a producer's' output freeze to stem a 2-year slide in prices.

 


The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)


 

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