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September 18, 2018 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 309

Corn Harvest Lags Slightly Behind Expectations

USDA Crop Progress report shows U.S. corn crop is 54% mature and harvest is 9% complete

Corn Harvest Lags Slightly Behind Expectations

Corn Harvest Lags Slightly Behind Expectations, Soybeans Pick Up Pace

The USDA Crop Progress report showed that the US corn crop is 54% mature and that harvest is 9% complete. These numbers are both well above the 5 year average but traders expected corn harvest to be 10% complete. Illinois and Indiana are making very good harvest progress at this point. Soybean harvest was pegged 1% higher than expectations at 6% complete for the U.S. crop. Areas of the northern Midwest like the Dakotas and Minnesota are showing an above average pace of harvest so far. The USDA also reported that spring wheat is 97% harvested, compared to 92% last week.

 

President Trump Announces New Round Of $200 Billion Tariffs on China

On Monday, President Trump stated that following careful deliberation and listening to public comments, he has decided to impose another round of tariffs, this time on $200 billion worth of Chinese products. These new tariffs will go into effect on Monday, Sep 24, and will begin at a 10% duty. On Jan 1, the rates will increase to 25%. The goods targeted are industrial chemicals, plastics, and certain electronics components. President Trump also said that should China retaliate in any way, particularly against farmers, he would initiate “phase 3” and tack on an additional tariff of $267 billion worth of Chinese goods, including cell phones.

 

Hot, Wet Weather in Forecast for Iowa, Kansas; Heavy Rains in Northern Midwest

Across Kansas and Iowa, temps are expected to be in the low 90s and humid, followed by thunderstorms later on tonight and into tomorrow. There may be a chance for hail or severe winds. Rain is also expected along the Illinois-Iowa border, where harvest was beginning to make good progress.

Nearly 3-4 inches is forecast further north in S Minnesota, E South Dakota, and Wisconsin over the coming week.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. FBN BR LLC (NFA ID: 0508695)

September 17, 2018 | Monday Mycotoxin And Crop Report | | Views: 343

Monday Mycotoxin & Crop Report for September 17

Special report from Kansas State’s Dr. Cassie Jones on mycotoxin testing as a tool for FSMA compliance

Monday Mycotoxin & Crop Report for September 17

This week's Monday Mycotoxin and Crop Report from Neogen features a special report from Kansas State’s Dr. Cassie Jones on mycotoxin testing as a tool for FSMA compliance.

 

 

September 17, 2018 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 301

Heavy Rains Expected in the Northern Midwest

Over the next five days, nearly all of this region is forecast to see 5 inches of rain

Heavy Rains Expected in the Northern Midwest

Heavy Rains Expected In Northern Midwest, Eastern Corn Belt to See Showers from Tropical Storm Florence

Over the next 5 days, nearly all of Iowa and Wisconsin, S Minnesota, E South Dakota, and NE Nebraska are forecast to see nearly 5 inches of rain and temps in the mid 70s. Further to the south, a storm system is expected to cut across much of Kansas, totalling 3-4 inches of precipitation. As the remnants of Hurricane Florence move further inland, parts of E Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Kentucky can expect several inches of rain. North Carolina remains underwater, with most of the state’s counties under flash flood warnings and watches. Tornadoes are also forecast for central parts of North Carolina.

President Trump Could Announce New Tariffs on China Today

Senior officials in the Trump White House stated that President Trump is likely to announce the latest round of tariffs targeting $200 billion worth of Chinese goods as early as today. This comes alongside recent news that Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and Vice Premier Liu He are set to restart trade talks. The Wall Street Journal reports that this newest round of tariffs would be at a 10% rate, not 25% as previously speculated that the Trump Administration was considering. Products targeted by the US in this latest round are electronics, tires, chemicals, plastics, and seafood, among other consumer goods.

Export Sales Announcement

Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 241,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2018/2019 marketing year.

Managed Money is Selling Corn, Soy, and Wheat as Big Crop Gets Bigger

For the week ending on Sep 11, managed money increased their net short position in corn by 6,586 to 63,470 contracts, primarily driven by the USDA’s yield estimate increasing to 181.3 bpa. It is also estimated that funds sold 47,000 corn contracts on Wed Sep 12, marking the largest single day sell off for corn since June 21, 2016. Money managers also increased their net shorts for soybeans by 5,520 to 68,269 contracts as the USDA estimate ending stocks at 845 million bushels. Managed money cut their net long positions in Chicago SRW by 24,351 to 18,415 contracts and KC HRW by 11,715 to 43,539 contracts. Funds also turned bearish on MN HRS, establishing a net short position of 831 contracts, down 1,807 from the previous week.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. FBN BR LLC (NFA ID: 0508695)

September 14, 2018 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 298

African Swine Fever Outbreak Confirmed in Belgium

ASF has caused the death of several wild boar in Belgium near French border

African Swine Fever Outbreak Confirmed in Belgium

Trump Administration Extends Invitation for Trade Talks With China

US Secretary of the Treasury Steve Mnuchin has offered an invitation to Chinese trade officials to discuss trade between the two countries and seek a solution to the escalating Trade War. The invitation was directed towards Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, a trusted economic advisor to President Xi Jinping. Currently, the Trump Administration is finalizing the list of $200 billion of Chinese goods that will face 10-25% tariffs and will be enacted over the coming days. President Trump took to Twitter, saying that the US is under no pressure to meet with China and that it is in fact the Chinese that wish to broker a deal as quickly as possible.

African Swine Fever Outbreak Confirmed In Wild Boar In Belgium

African Swine Fever (ASF) has been reported to have caused the death of several wild boar in an area of Belgium near the French border. This marks the first confirmed case of the virus in Belgium since 1985. ASF was also recently confirmed in hog herds in Eastern Europe, most notably in Romania, where hundreds of thousands of hogs have been culled. Following the outbreak in Belgium, French authorities are taking additional precautions to quarantine hog farms and slaughter facilities. The EU is the world’s 2nd largest producer of pork and the largest exporter. Countries like Germany, Denmark, France, and Spain represent a majority of hog production. The spread of ASF from China to Europe has scientists concerned that the virus has “reached pandemic proportions”.

Hurricane Florence Hammers Carolinas as Storm Surge Grows

Hurricane Florence has made landfall in North Carolina, bringing 90 mph winds and up to 8 inches of rain this morning alone. The storm is slowing its progress inward over land, which has caused the storm surge to worsen, reaching 2 feet in some areas of North and South Carolina. The National Weather Service warns that winds may increase up to 110 mph and that the storm surge and flash flooding in low lying areas may make the situation on the ground “devastating to catastrophic”.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. FBN BR LLC (NFA ID: 0508695)

September 13, 2018 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 318

Ethanol Production Reaches 5-Month Low

Corn and wheat sell off sharply following yesterday's WASDE report

Ethanol Production Reaches 5-Month Low

Corn, Wheat Sold Off Sharply Following Yesterday’s WASDE Report, Soybeans Find Support

Yesterday’s report from the USDA raised their projection for corn yield to a record 181.3 bpa, resulting in estimated production of 14.827 billion bushels, the second largest corn crop on record. Analysts largely anticipated a reduction in yield and were caught off guard. The USDA also increased their estimate for ending stocks by 90 million bushels from Aug to 1.774 billion bushels. Dec 18 corn was down -12.75 cents on the day. For wheat, the USDA raised their estimates for global old crop ending stocks to 274.36 MMT, surpassing analysts expectations of 272.92 MMT. New crop global ending stocks were also increased to 261.29 MMT. Russian wheat production was increased by 3 MMT to 71 MMT, as growing conditions in their spring wheat belt have improved. Dec Chicago SRW lost -12.75 cents, KC HRW was down -15.25, and MN HRS gave up -9 cents. The USDA increased their soybean yield estimate by 0.6 to 52.8 bpa, bringing total bean production to 4.693 billion bushels, up 44 million bushels from August. Nearly the entire Midwest saw good amounts of moisture throughout the entire month of August, likely boosting soybean yields. The estimate for Chinese soybean imports was also cut by 1 to 94 MMT. Nov 18 soybeans gained +9.25 cents on the day.

USDA Sales Announcement

  • Export sales of 142,876 metric tons of corn for delivery to Costa Rica during the 2018/2019 marketing year.
  • Export sales of 108,010 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to Mexico during the 2018/2019 marketing year.
  • Export sales of 120,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations. Of the total 40,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2018/2019 marketing year and 80,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2019/2020 marketing year.

USDA Weekly Exports: Mexico Continues To Buy Cheap Corn, More Beans Headed to Europe

For the week ending on Sep 6, total sales of corn were reported at 774,200 MT, slightly below the range of estimates from analysts. The countries making the most purchases were Mexico, Colombia, and Japan. Net sales for new crop soybeans came in at 693,500 MT which was to the low end of the analysts’ range. Top buyers of US origin soybeans were Egypt, Japan, and Iran. Notably, the Netherlands had reported purchases of 70,500 MT, likely to go feed the robust Dutch bean crushing industry. Wheat sales were reported at 387,600 MT, up only 2% from last week but down 16% from the 4 week average. Major buyers were Taiwan, Mexico, and Italy.

Ethanol Production Reaches 5-Month Low, Supplies of the Biofuel Grow

The Energy Information Administration’s weekly report announced that production of ethanol was 1.02 million barrels per day, the lowest level of production since April 20. Last week, production was reported at 1.087 million barrels per day. This time of the year marks maintenance season for many ethanol plants around the Midwest. For the week ending on Sep 7, ethanol stockpiles grew to 22.894 million barrels, up 191,000 barrels from last week. Yesterday’s WASDE report showed an increase in expected grind for ethanol, with the USDA forecasting 5.65 billion bushels of corn to be used in the production of ethanol.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. FBN BR LLC (NFA ID: 0508695)

September 12, 2018 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 276

Corn and Soybean Conditions Improve

Corn harvest makes good progress

Corn and Soybean Conditions Improve

Soybeans and Corn Conditions Improve, Corn Harvest Makes Good Progress

For the week ending on Sep 9, the USDA reported that soybean conditions improved nationally by 2% to 68% good to excellent. Much of the soybean growing area saw good rains through the end of August and into the first week of September. The Crop Progress Report was delayed by a day due to technical errors. Corn conditions also improved slightly to 68% G/E. Iowa was reported at 73% G/E and Illinois at 77%. The USDA also reported that 31% of soybeans are dropping leaves, up from 9% last week. This is also up significantly from the 5-year average of 19%. Corn was also reported to be 35% mature, compared to the 5-year average of 21% and corn is also 5% harvested nationally.

 

U.S., Canadian Negotiators Show Signs of Progress Following Yesterday’s Meetings

Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland met with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer yesterday in Washington D.C., following which Freeland said the “atmosphere continues to be positive and cordial” and that a deal may be struck this week. President Trump also said that the renegotiation of NAFTA with Canada was “coming along very well”, a change from his previous tone regarding trade with Canada. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau also cautioned against any sort of tariffs on cars, which would cause a “massive disruption” in talks between the two countries.

Flood Warnings in Place In E Iowa As East Coast Prepares for Hurricane Florence

Tributaries of the Mississippi River in E Iowa continue to be at risk of flooding past their banks due to heavy rains from the weekend. The NWS has issues flood warnings in the eastern part of the state. Residents of both North and South Carolina are urged to evacuate as Hurricane Florence approaches. The storm has been declared a Category 4 hurricane and is anticipated to make landfall as early as Thursday or early Friday. Heavy rains and winds of up to 130 MPH are expected to ravage the coastal areas of the Carolinas.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. FBN BR LLC (NFA ID: 0508695)

September 11, 2018 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 310

September WASDE Report to be Released Tomorrow

Report is set to show a slight build in old crop corn stocks and a draw down in new crop

September WASDE Report to be Released Tomorrow

Australia Slashes Wheat Production Estimate to 10-Year Low As Drought Rages Down Under

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARES) has cut their forecast of wheat production to 19.1 MMT, down 13% from their June number of 21.9 MMT. Drought has significantly affected the east coast of Australia, which has seen less than 20% of its usual rainfall since June. ABARES has cut wheat production in Eastern Australia by nearly 38% to 5.74 MMT. Australia is the 4th largest exporter of wheat and typically exports two-thirds of its crop.  

Export Sales Announcement

Export sales of 138,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to South Korea during the 2018/2019 marketing year. Also noted: Cancellations of export sales of 192,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2018/2019 marketing year.

Canadian Trade Officials to Meet With Robert Lighthizer In Washington D.C. Today

Chrystia Freeland, the Canadian Foreign Minister, is set to meet with US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer in Washington today to begin another round of NAFTA talks. Time is running out for a new deal to be agreed upon as President Trump has already come to an agreement on modernizing NAFTA with Mexico and plans on signing it into law following Congressional approval. Canada is working to finalize a deal by the end of Sept. The main hurdles are opening up Canada to import more US dairy, automobile production, and a dispute-resolution mechanism that Canada wishes to see. Yesterday, USDA Chief Sonny Perdue said that Canada’s dairy scheme must come to an end for a NAFTA deal to be reached.

USDA’s Sept WASDE Report Scheduled for Release Tomorrow At 11 AM Central

Analysts expect the upcoming Sept WASDE report is to show a slight build in old crop corn stocks and a draw down in new crop. Global new crop stocks are also expected to build up by several million metric tonnes. Analysts estimate the corn yield at 177.8 bpa and production at 14.529 billion bushels. Estimates for US old crop soybeans also show a slight draw and new crop is expected to increase from the Aug WASDE number from the USDA. The average yield estimate from analysts is 52.2 bpa and expect production at 4.649 billion bushels.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. FBN BR LLC (NFA ID: 0508695)

September 10, 2018 | Monday Mycotoxin And Crop Report | | Views: 318

Monday Mycotoxin & Crop Report for September 10

Where blacklight testing for aflatoxin falls short

Monday Mycotoxin & Crop Report for September 10

This week's report features a special on where blacklight testing for aflatoxin falls short, as well as insight into corn maturity as it races ahead.

 

 

September 07, 2018 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 673

Export Numbers for New Crop Corn Nearly Double

Ethanol production increases to one month high

Export Numbers for New Crop Corn Nearly Double

Ethanol Production Increases To 1-Month High, Stockpiles Draw Down

For the week ending on Aug 31, the Energy Information Administration reports that production of ethanol rose to a 4 week high of 1.087 million barrels per day, up from last week’s 1.07 million barrels per day. The EIA also reported that ethanol stocks also declined down by 358,000 to 22.703 million barrels, the lowest since July 27. Ethanol exports in the month of July fell 31% from June and 11% from last year, coming in at 104.4 million gallons. Export volumes to Brazil and India have declined but increased for Canada, now the #1 imported of US ethanol.

Heavy Rain And Flooding Could Follow Tropical Depression Gordon As It Moves North

Parts of Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, and S Ohio are under flood watches and warnings as the remnants of Tropical Depression Gordon cut a path northward out of the Gulf of Mexico. Nearly 5 inches of rain are forecast for central Ohio over the weekend and into Monday, where flood watches are in effect. S Missouri, S Indiana, and S Illinois are also expecting up to 6 inches of rain and a cold front to move through the region.

Export Numbers For New Crop Corn Nearly Double From Last Week

The USDA pegged exports of old crop corn at only 30,100 MT, a marketing year low and down 90% from the 4 week average. New crop corn, however, was reported at 1,032,900 MT, compared to last week’s 525,000 MT. The countries with the most purchases were Mexico, Unknown destinations, and Japan. Old crop soybeans came in at only 600 MT, down 100% from both last week and the 4 week average. New crop beans were pegged at 672,600 MT with top buyers being Unknown destinations, Thailand, Argentina, and Mexico. Net sales of wheat came in at 379,800 MT, down 8% from last week and down 14% from the 4 week average. Major buyers for the week were South Korea, the Philippines, and Mexico.


 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. FBN BR LLC (NFA ID: 0508695)

September 06, 2018 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 405

Heavy Rains Anticipated in the Wake of Tropical Depression

Tropical depression Gordon cuts a path along the Mississippi River Valley

Heavy Rains Anticipated in the Wake of Tropical Depression

US And Canadian Trade Officials Continue To Work On New NAFTA Deal

US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland worked late into the night yesterday as the two countries seek to make a deal to modernize NAFTA. No deal has been put forth yet but both parties express optimism and say progress has been made. President Trump expects to know whether or not there will be a deal as early as this week. Some of the points of contention are that President Trump wishes to see an end to the protectionism of the Canadian dairy market while Canada wants duty free exports of lumber to the US and to be exempt from steel and aluminum tariffs. The US Commerce Department also announced that the trade deficit with Canada increased to $3.1 billion, potentially a boost to the Trump Administration during these talks.

China Discovers African Swine Fever On Four Separate Farms In One Day

The Chinese government has reported the presence of the African swine fever virus on 4 different farms across the eastern portion of the country. The largest of these infected farms had 203 hogs, while the smallest had only 30. This brings the total number of outbreaks up to 13 since the virus was first detected in swine herds in early August. The ASF virus has been uncovered on farms and slaughter facilities nearly 1,900 miles apart. The Chinese government seeks to halt the outbreak by banning transport of live hogs, which has left hog barns too full and slaughterhouses idle.

Argentina Export Taxes On Corn May Lead To Less Acres Planted

Following financial troubles in Argentina, President Macri has announced an export tax while be placed on corn and wheat at 10.5%. Soybeans will continue to be taxed at the previous rate of 28.5%. There was previously no export tax for either wheat or corn. Wheat planting has finished in Argentina but corn planting won’t begin until October. Gustavo López of Agritrend, a private consultancy based in Buenos Aires, Argentina says that this move by the government will lead to more planted acres of soybeans and that profitability on corn could fall  by as much as 50%.

Heavy Rains Anticipated In The Wake Of Tropical Depression Gordon

As Tropical Depression Gordon cuts a path north, areas along the Mississippi River valley can expect heavy rainfall and potential flooding. The NWS warns of the potential for floods particularly in Arkansas and Mississippi. Further west, most of the state of Missouri is currently under flood warnings and watches, as rivers swell past their banks due to heavy precipitation since last weekend. The forecast calls for nearly another 6 inches of rain on Friday and Saturday. Areas along the Ohio River in S Illinois, S Indiana, S Ohio, and N Kentucky are expecting 5-6 inches of rain over the next few days as well.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. FBN BR LLC (NFA ID: 0508695)

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