Export Sales Disappoint
Export sales disappointed this week with corn and soybeans both booking well below analyst expectations.
The grains are mixed this morning with corn down ½ a cent, soybeans unchanged and wheat up 5 ¾ cents going into this morning’s pause in trade activity. Continued dryness in the U.S. wheat belt is providing reasons for continued wheat short covering after prices fell to new lows last Friday. The forecast expects some beneficial rains for the plains wheat crop next week. The U.S. Dollar is trading off yesterday’s highs after briefly trading over the 100 mark in the overnight.
Export sales didn't provide much support for the grains with corn and soybeans missing analyst expectations to the low side. Wheat sales were stronger than expected booking 445,000 metric tons compared to 300,000-450,000 metric tons expected. Large purchases from China, Mexico, unknown destinations and the Philippines helped maintain export sales in the face of a rapidly rising dollar. Corn sales fell to 418,000 metric tons of old crop sales, down 50 percent from the previous week and well below analyst expectations of between 600,000-800,000 metric tons. Soybeans also disappointed analysts by booking only 167,900 metric tons this week compared to 300,000-500,000 metric tons expected by analysts. Soybean sales are expected to come under pressure during the second half of the marketing year with 98 percent of expected sales already booked. The USDA left soybean export sales unchanged in the latest WASDE report.
On Wednesday, most Argentinian farmers halted grain sales in protest to bring attention to existing agricultural policies. The strike is expected to be limited to three days and will most likely not affect the loading at port facilities.
Ethanol production increased week over week by 13,000 barrels per day to 944,000 barrels per day which is still well over last year’s production pace. In the latest WASDE report released on Tuesday the 10th the USDA cut ethanol production by 50 million bushels. The USDA cited that the new Grain Crushing’s and Co-Products Production report showed corn used for ethanol between October and January occurred at a higher conversion rate than previously assumed.
Ethanol Numbers out this Morning
U.S. Dollar continues to gain strength while corn finds resistance as it nears the 100 and 50 day moving average.
Grains Higher in the Overnight Following WASDE Report
The grains are trading higher in the overnight following the Tuesday WASDE report and despite the higher U.S dollar.
The dollar index continues to rally in the overnight reaching 99.145 in a rally that started after breaking through 95.90 on March 4th. The grains are also moving higher in the overnight with corn up 3 ¾ cents, soybeans up 5 ¾ cents and wheat up 6 ½ cents this morning. Be aware that the May Corn chart has resistance from the 100 and 50 day moving averages at 3.94 ½ and 3.95 ¾.
Yesterday, the USDA revised the corn ending stocks lower by 50 million bushels to 1,777 million bushels. The revision was a result of increased feed and residual use, increased export sales and a decreased ethanol production. Soybean ending stocks were held steady at 385 million bushels despite the strong pace of export sales this year. Analysts were expecting a cut in ending stocks by around 9 million bushels. Wheat ending stocks were cut to 691 million bushels down from 692 in February.
Global ending stocks for corn fell by 4.36 million metric tons in March as a result of higher U.S. usage and a 2 million metric ton production decline out of South Africa from hot dry weather conditions. Argentina production was increased by .5 MMT, but the rest of Argentina corn and soybean production was left unchanged.
Yesterday the Brazilian government representatives and independent truckers met to discuss freight rates, a central issue in the two week long trucker strike and blockade that clogged Brazil’s highways and kept fuel and grain from market. Rain in northern Brazil is likely to cause harvest delays over the next two weeks.
This morning the Taiwan Flour Millers association purchased 83,950 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the U.S.
Unexpected WASDE Numbers out Today
Ending Stock numbers helped influence the effects of the rising U.S. dollar. Export sales was not revised today which leads Cody to believe that export sales will fall this week.
Supply and Demand Report Day
Analysts are expecting a revision in soybean ending stocks in this round of analyst expectations. With export sales are running well ahead of expectations, will the USDA lower 14/15 carryout?
The grains are trading lower in the overnight session with corn declining 1 ½ cents, soybeans down 3 ¾ cents and wheat trading 5 cents lower going into this morning’s pause. The U.S. dollar is up again this morning increasing over ½ a percent in the overnight session. This morning at 11 AM CST the USDA will release their March Supply and Demand Report.
Analysts are not expecting this report to bring a significant surprise to the market. In a Reuter’s poll of 20 analysts the average guess for corn ending stocks was 1.826 billion bushels which would be a slight decline from the 1.827 million bushels in the February WASDE report. The average trade guess for soybean ending stocks was 376 million bushels, down 9 million bushels from February. The average analyst guess expects wheat ending stocks to rise by 7 million bushels to 699 million metric tons.
This morning Brazil’s government crop agency cut 14/15 soybean production forecasts to 93.3 million metric tons down from 94.6 million metric tons reported in February. The most recent USDA forecast pegs Brazilian production at 94.5 MMT. Conab also revised expected corn production lower to 78.2 million metric tons from 78.4 in its February report.
Export inspections were average for soybeans this week reporting that 625,713 metric tons were inspected for export, down from 650,667 last week. Corn reported 1,180,686 metric tons, down 8 percent from the previous week but still beating analyst expectations which ranged from 900,000-1,100,000 MT. Wheat recorded 376,210 metric tons inspected for shipment this week which was on the low side of analyst expectations.
Export Inspections Out Today
Corn basis has been strong lately and proved to be on the high side of analyst expectations. However, it may be difficult for corn to rise above current prices. Tune in tomorrow for the March supply and demand report.
Traders Eye Tomorrow’s Report
The grains are bouncing this morning after seeing selling pressure last week. Traders will be adjusting positions with the March 10th WASDE report at the center of attention.
In the overnight, the grains traded higher with corn up 4 ½ cents, soybeans up 2 cents and wheat up 7 ¾ cents. The U.S. dollar is trading sideways this morning after a sharp move higher last Friday. The technical environment for corn looks to be negative this week with the 50 day and 100 day moving average crossing over each other this week. Tomorrow morning the USDA will release their March Supply and Demand report at 11 AM CST.
Analysts are expecting wheat ending stocks to increase to 699 million bushels from 692 in the February report. Total wheat export sales are in line with meeting current USDA expectations, but the rise in the dollar continues to hurt U.S. wheat competitiveness on the global market. Corn ending stocks are expected to decline slightly, falling to 1.826 billion bushels from 1.827 billion in February. Soybean ending stocks are expected to shrink down to 376 million bushels from 385 million bushels in February. Soybean export sales have run well ahead of last year’s pace, already booking 97.7 percent of forecast export sales.
In northern Brazil, minor harvesting delays are expected over the next couple weeks as rain is expected to slow fieldwork. Ports in the region have seen a 61 percent jump in ships waiting to be loaded jumping to 82 ships waiting along the coast from 51 last Friday. Last Thursday the Buenos Aires Grains Exchanged warned that flooding in the Northern Pampas region puts them at risk of downgrading production estimates in weeks to come. Last week they held their production estimates steady.
Grains Continue to Feel Pressure from Strong Dollar
U.S. Dollar is continuing to gain strength. Cody looks at how this is affecting WASDE expectations.
Dollar Rallies in the Overnight
The dollar moved sharply higher in the overnight session which is expected to put further pressure on grains during today's trade session.
The grains traded lower in the overnight session with corn down 3 ¼ cents, soybeans down 2 cents and wheat in Chicago up ¼ of a penny. The U.S. Dollar is trading sharply higher to 97.395 after breaking above the previous resistance of 95.85 set on January 26th. The market will be focusing on the March USDA Supply and Demand reports which will be released at 11 AM CST on Tuesday March 10th.
Analysts are expecting wheat ending stocks to increase to 699 million bushels from 692 in the February report. Total wheat export sales are running at pace to meet current USDA expectations, but the rise in the dollar continues to hurt U.S. wheat competitiveness on the global market. Corn ending stocks are expected to decline slightly falling to 1.826 billion bushels from 1.827 billion in February, and Soybean ending stocks are expected to shrink down to 376 million bushels from 385 million bushels in February. Soybean sales have run well ahead of last year’s pace, already booking 97.7 percent of forecast export sales.
The Buenos Aires Grains exchange warned yesterday that the floods in the northern Pampas region could cause them to reduce their soybean production estimate which currently sits at 57 million metric tons. In the February WASDE supply and demand estimates, the USDA’s pegged Argentina soybean production at 56 million metric tons. Rains are expected in the 6-10 day forecast with most precipitation focused over the central and northwestern parts of Argentina.
Wheat was higher in the overnight session.
Wheat was higher in the overnight session posting modest 4 cent gains while corn and beans were mostly unchanged in listless trade activity.
Wheat found support in the overnight session as concerns over dryness in the Plains continue to support prices. Weekend rains were nonexistent for...[Read More]
Wheat Yield Forecast
Weekly Cash Comments
Corn grain basis was unchanged for the week, while soybeans posted a 2-cent advance.
In corn, basis levels were up one-cent a bushel at the Gulf export market, but river terminals were on average unchanged for the week.[Read More]
Grains Mixed on Friday with Traders Eyeing Tuesday’s Reports
In the overnight session the grains were mixed with corn down 3/4 of a cent, soybeans down 2 3/4 of a cent and wheat up 4 cents going into this morning’s pause. Traders are eyeing two market moving reports that will be released next Tuesday the 31st which include the planting intentions...[Read More]