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March 23, 2017 | Kevin McNew | Views: 251
March 23, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 172

Weekly Export Sales Were Supportive for Old Crop Corn and Soybeans

Grains Continue Lower in the Overnight

Grains continued to bleed lower overnight while in outside markets crude oil, equities and the US dollar were on the positive side of the ledger for this first time this week with limited gains.

 

Russia's SovEcon agriculture consultancy said on Thursday it had downgraded its forecast for Russia's 2017 grain crop to 109.5 MMT from a previous forecast of 112.5 MMT. SovEcon also sees the country's wheat crop at 62.5 MMT in 2017 compared with 73.3 MMT in 2016.

 

Brazil soy yields are reported to be very good but farmer sales are said to be slow. Palm Oil continued to be weaker overnight adding to losses early in the week. China’s soybean imports in February were at 7.5 MMT, down 4% from the same month last year. Argentina corn harvest is said to be speeding along and port deliveries by truck are said to be record large.

Weekly export sales were supportive for old-crop corn and soybeans. Overnight, Japan bought 59,000 MT of US wheat in their normal tender purchase of 117,689 MT of food wheat. The remainder will be supplied by Canada and Australia.

 

Export Sales-

 

Actual

  Estimated

Wheat - OC

  418

  250-450

Wheat - NC

  149

  50-250

Corn - OC

 1,347

  900-1,200

Corn - NC

  127

  100-300

Soybeans-OC

  738

  350-550

Soybeans-NC  

   80

  100-300

 

 

Financial markets will closely watch the Thursday vote in the US House on the Republican led healthcare law. A failure to move this policy forward, would likely signal a bleak outlook on financial policy changes like taxes and infrastructure that market participants have been betting on.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

March 22, 2017 | Kevin McNew | Views: 149
March 22, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 113

US Equities and the Dollar Index Come Under Selling Pressure

Rain is still in the cards for the coming weeks over the Southern Plains.

Grains inched lower overnight with KC wheat continue to take the leader position on the downside. In outside markets, crude oil was pushing into new lows, off 60-cents a barrel and the US dollar and equities were pointing slightly lower following yesterday’s sharp slide.

 

USDA reported a 120,-000 MT of HRW wheat was sold to Saudi Arabia and 120,000 MT of soybeans were sold to China.

 

Rains is still in the weather cards for the coming weeks over the Southern Plains. However, overnight model guidance shows less rainfall (vs. yesterday) through month's end across the Texas and Oklahoma US wheat crop areas, but maintains near to above widespread 1.0 inch totals across much of Kansas.

 

In China, soy crush margins continue to come under pressure with crush margins dipping to their lowest level in 18 months. Rapid expansion of the soy crush margin in the Fall of 2016 helped push a buying spree of US soybeans, but with China’s margins under pressure and South America competition, it could be a dismal period of US export activity.

 

 

Yesterday, US equities and the dollar index came under selling pressure. In part, the dollar continued its lower trend on the Fed’s announcement they would take a less hawkish approach to future rate hikes than investors had thought. Furthermore, stocks are seeing pressure in auto- and consumer-sensitive areas suggesting the economy may not be as strong as expected. Also, investors will be watching the political theater around Thursday's House vote to repeal Obamacare, as these battles are threatening to push out tax reform and more stimulus well into the end of 2017 or 2018. A defeat in Thursday's vote would send a clear signal that the rest of Trump's agenda — taxes, the budget, and infrastructure — could be on shaky ground.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

March 21, 2017 | Kevin McNew | Views: 129
March 21, 2017 | Tech Talk | Charlie Trauger | Views: 1510

How Old is That Mission Critical Software That You Are Using?

It's never an easy decision to update old software but companies will reach a point where the future risk outweigh the present pain

How Old is That Mission Critical Software That You Are Using?

The issues that several of the large airlines have had recently caught my eye when they experienced delays, all due to software. The primary reason for the issues was after an interruption, the old systems had issues reconnecting to the newer systems. When the power goes out, or some other event, it can take hours, sometimes days to get everything communicating again. Kind of like my farm when the duct tape or baling wire breaks!

If, or more likely when you have a software related failure, have you tested your backup system? What if that does not work, what is your plan then? So who gets the blame? IT? It really needs to be on the radar of top management, but in many cases, it is not.

There are many reasons we end up keeping and maintaining old software applications. Mergers, acquisitions, as well as a just plain old lack of time and capital to upgrade. Not to mention the downtime to install, test, and learn new applications as that creates an immediate pain before you solve a future pain. Never an easy task or decision.

One thing to look at is what is the cost to support it today?  What is the loss of business from any disruptions in older software applications? Inconvenience? Total disaster, or perhaps frustrated employees and customers. It might be worth taking a hard look at where your business is in regards to this. Software can fail due to hackers, and lack of redundancy, but more likely human prone issues prevail.

Not that the Government might be the best comparison, but 75% of Fed IT spending is on operations and maintenance of old technology – just keeping the lights on! www.gao.fov/products/GAO-16-468

What is your company spending on just keeping your old systems running? This really needs to be decisions made at the board level.

It might be a good idea for you to take a good assessment of all the systems in your business and perhaps test out some of your back-ups but taking them offline (during a slow time) and see if what you think you have really works.

There is some good news – SaaS solutions for many business related software applications are available now. Many are low cost and take the burden off the company for ongoing maintenance including upgrades, back-ups, etc. 

At least if something happens at your business, you probably have much more comfortable places to wait out the problem than in an airport or on a plane!


Charlie Trauger is Global Director of Agriculture for GlobalView Software, Inc. of Chicago IL.  He received his Bachelor of Science degree from the University of Nebraska and also completed course work in computer science from Metropolitan Technical College in Omaha, NE.  Charlie was raised on a row crop and cow calf operation in Nebraska and is still involved in the family business.  Charlie has spent over 25 years in the agricultural software and data business and recently relocated back to the family farm in Nebraska. Follow him on Twitter @charlietraug

March 21, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 204

USDA State Offices Release Winter Wheat Condition Scores

Grains Continue to Sink Lower

Grains continued to sink lower following Monday’s sharp sell-off in wheat. In outside markets, the US Dollar index fell below 100 for the first time since early February while crude oil was trying to find stability in the $49 a barrel territory.

 

After the market closed on Monday, USDA state offices in OK/KS/TX released their winter wheat crop condition scores which showed a mostly deteriorating crop. Kansas slipped from 42% good-to-excellent last week to 40% this week, while OK saw a similar deterioration from 40% to 38% over the past week. TX slipped from 35% last week to 34% this week. While these ratings are substantially below last year’s ratings at this time of year (47% to 63%), they are only slightly off of the long-term averages for the 3-state region, generally around 40%.

 

Japan's Ministry of Agriculture is seeking to buy a total of 117,689 tonnes of food quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that will close late on Thursday.

Yesterday, Agroconsult a private analyst pegged Brazil’s soybean crop at 111 MMT up from their previous forecast of 107.8 MMT and above USDA’s estimate of 108.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

March 20, 2017 | Kevin McNew | Views: 141
March 20, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 196

HRW Wheat Belt Expected to See Beneficial Rains

Grains Start with a Good Bounce on Sunday Night

Grains started with a good bounce on Sunday night but by early Monday gains were starting to erode.

 

USDA reported a 132,000 MT of corn was sold to South Korea.

 

Friday’s CFTC report on managed money showed funds had sold more positions than originally thought in the past week. The soybean long was off, the wheat short was larger than expected and corn went from net long to net short.

 

The US HRW wheat belt is expected to see some beneficial rains in the coming two weeks with about 75% of the crop expected to see beneficial moisture. In international news, Turkey denied reports that it has banned imports of certain products from Russia, after traders warned shipments of Russian wheat to its second-biggest export market face disruption. But, Turkish buyers are said to be on hold for purchasing Russian ag products.

 

In South America, Brazil is about 62% harvested on beans vs 56% average. In Argentina, port workers at Rosario are said to be taking a one-day strike on March 30 to demand better wages. About 80% of Argentina’s exports go thru Rosario.

The Taiwan Flour Millers' Association has issued an international tender to purchase 98,200 tonnes of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

March 17, 2017 | Kevin McNew | Views: 148

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