Grains Sink on Greece Vote and Rain Reprieve
Grain markets came back from the holiday weekend in a selling mood with soybeans off 20 cents, wheat off 15 cents and corn down 10 cents.
Global markets were generally sour overnight following the election results in Greece where voters there shunned the EU & IMF bailout deal. Greek banks are said to be running out of cash and facing the danger of collapse within days without new aid. Amidst this uncertainty, equity markets in the US were sharply lower overnight as was oil while the dollar was up on a flight to stability.
Over the weekend, weather was more benign than expected going into the weekend as rain accumulations in flooded areas were limited. However, over the next two days storms are expected to bring more rain to Missouri and the Southern parts of IL/IN/OH where flooding has been most problematic. After the close of trading today, USDA will announce the latest crop condition scores and traders expect another drop in crop conditions.
Internationally, France found a bit of relief from the dry heat wave over the weekend with cooler temps and some modest precipitation. However, Western Europe is still expected to be dry for the next 10 days despite the break in heat. On the Canadian prairies, they too found some relief over the weekend from scorching temperatures but there is little change in the outlook which points to a continuation of the heat wave and dry conditions that have plagued the region in the past month.
Is There Any Hope for Midwest Crop Yields?
As we enter the long weekend, Cody looks at weather and export inspections.
Soybean sales missed export sales expectations showing net cancellations on the week.
In the overnight session the grains traded lower with corn down 2 1/4 cents, soybeans down 8 3/4 cents and wheat down 9 1/2 cents this morning. Crude oil is trading up 25 cents and the U.S. dollar is down nearly a quarter of a percent.
On Wednesday, the EIA ethanol production report showed a weekly decline of 26,000 barrels per day to 968,000 barrels per day. Weekly production was 15,000 barrels per day above last year’s pace and well above the four year average of 898,000 barrels per day. This year’s production is 4.6 percent above last year’s levels. Ethanol stocks fell 308,000 barrels this week to 19.532 million barrels.
Old crop corn sales showed 594,300 metric tons was booked last week, up 20 percent from the previous week and on the high side of analyst expectations which ranged from 300,000 to 600,000 metric tons. New crop sales met expectations by booking 238,900 metric tons this week. Soybean sales disappointed analysts with net reductions by 10,300 metric tons, well below what analysts were expecting which ranged from 100,000 to 200,000 metric tons. New crop soybean sales were also light, booking 127,500 metric tons this week. Wheat sales met expectations booking 363,900 metric tons.
Ethanol Production Starting to Decline
Tune in for a review of ethanol numbers, weather, and export inspections.
Grains Pause in the Overnight
The grains gave back some of their gains in the overnight session after yesterday’s USDA reports triggered a sharp rally in the market.
In the overnight session we have pulled back a bit with corn down 7 cents, soybeans down 5 1/2 cents and wheat down 17 cents this morning. The U.S. dollar is trading higher by a half a percent and crude oil is down 79 cents this morning.
Yesterday’s quarterly grain stocks and planted acreage reports pushed the market sharply higher within sight of some important chart resistance levels. September corn resistance is at $4.30 where the market closed back on December 29th. September wheat resistance is at $6.60 where the market closed back on December 18th and soybeans traded up to a high of $10.45 1/2 in the overnight which is an area that acted as resistance multiple times between November and January of last year.
The June 30th planted acreage report showed lower than expected planted acreage estimates for corn and soybeans. For the second year in a row the U.S. is planting record soybean acreage estimated at 85.139 million acres which was higher than the March 31st acreage numbers, but slightly lower than analyst expectations which averaged 85.171 million acres. The USDA followed their acreage report with an announcement that they will be resurveying Cotton, Soybeans and Sorghum acres in Texas, Kansas, Arkansas and Missouri after excessive rain caused planting delays.
Corn acreage slid 302,000 acres from the March 31st report to 88.897 million acres. This will be the lowest corn acreage since 2010, and is below analyst expectations which averaged 89.292 million acres. Wheat acres surprised the market with 56.1 million acres planted in 2015, which is 233,000 acres above the average trade guess and 733,000 acres above the March 31st forecast.
Corn stocks were reported at 4.45 billion bushels, 105 million bushels below the average trade expectations. Soybean stocks were also lower than expected with 625 million bushels, compared to expectations of 670 million bushels which helped bring buyers into the market. Wheat stocks were reported higher than trade estimates with 752 million bushels compared to analyst estimates of 718 million.
Grain TV: Will We Actually See Sustained Gains?
After the sharp move higher, Cody looks at the technical and fundamental factors that will have to be present for sustained high prices
Today the USDA releases the Planted Acreage and Quarterly Grain Stocks report. Below are the expectations.
In the overnight session the grains were mixed with corn up 1 cent, soybeans down 5 3/4 cents and wheat down 1 1/4 cents. The U.S. dollar is trading 1/2 a percent higher and crude oil is trading up 24 cents. Two major USDA reports will be released at 11 AM CST including the Planted Acreage report and the Quarterly Grain Stocks report. Below are the expectations for both reports.
In a poll of analysts conducted by Reuters the average forecast for corn acreage is 89.292 million acres. This is up from the 89.199 million acres of corn forecast on March 31st. For soybeans and wheat, analysts are expecting to see a half million acre increase from the March 31st report to 85.171 million acres and 55.867 million acres respectively. However, whatever the USDA releases this morning will likely come under scrutiny since the survey was conducted in early June. With slower than average soybean planting pace and saturating rains throughout the Midwest some fields may not get seeded.
Crop progress was released yesterday at 3 PM CST after the market closed and showed another drop in corn and soybean conditions. The U.S corn rated good-to-excellent slipped 3 percentage points to 68 percent from 71 percent last week. Ohio’s crop conditions declined notably from 61 percent rated good-to-excellent last week to 42 percent this week. Soybean conditions also slipped falling to 63 percent rated good to excellent from 65 percent last week. Soybean planting increased 4 percent this week but planting pace still lags significantly in Missouri which is only 62 percent complete compared to the four year average of 94 percent complete. Wheat plantings increased this week to 38 percent but still lag the four year average of 46 percent complete by the last week in June.
In a Reuter's poll of analysts the average analyst guess for the quarterly grain stocks is 718 million bushels for wheat, 4.555 billion bushels of corn and 670 million bushels of soybeans. This would be a draw down in grain stocks from 1.124 billion bushels of wheat, 7.745 billion bushels of corn and 1.334 billion bushels of soybeans reported on March 1st. Traders will be watching corn stocks closely to gauge feed demand which could be negatively influenced by the bird flu this year.
How Much Are Crop Conditions Really Being Affected?
Cody breaks down the conditions reports and looks at upcoming weather and acreage projections.
All eyes on Tuesday’s USDA Reports
The market is anticipating the acreage report and quarterly grain stocks report scheduled for release on Tuesday the 30th.
In the overnight session, the grains traded higher with corn up 5 1/2 cents, soybeans up 3 3/4 cents and wheat up 9 cents by the pause of trade this morning. The U.S. dollar is up only a fraction of a percent and crude oil is down 71 cents. All traders in long July grain contracts will need to liquidate or roll their positions by the close of trade today with Tuesday the 30th being First Notice. Tuesday the 30th also marks the release of two major USDA reports including the Planted Acreage report and the Quarterly Grain Stocks report.
In a Reuter’s poll of analysts the average analyst guess for the quarterly grain stocks is 718 million bushels for wheat, 4.555 billion bushels of corn and 670 million bushels of soybeans. This would be a draw down in grain stocks from 1.124 billion bushels of wheat, 7.745 billion bushels of corn and 1.334 billion bushels of soybeans reported on March 1st. The Quarterly Grain Stocks report will be released at 11 AM CST tomorrow.
Weather this week is expected to bring cooler than normal conditions to the Midwest and leave the northwest significantly hotter than normal. Rains are expected to pass through the Midwest leaving Illinois, Indiana Michigan and Ohio with more precipitation than normal this week while North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska and Kansas expect drier weather.
Monday Morning Sell-Off
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