July 10, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 61

Grains Climb Higher to Start the Week

Weather Continues to be Hot and Dry for the Plains

Grains climbed higher to start the week fueled by extreme heat in the Western Cornbelt over the weekend.

 

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Weather for this week continues to point to hot and dry for the Plains and Western Cornbelt. Nebraska should see high temperatures over the next two weeks that range from 95 to 103 with no real chance of meaningful moisture over that two week period. However, just to the East in Iowa high temps will be mostly in the mid-80s over the next two weeks with limited precip. Rainfall is expected in the ECB over the next week with IL, IN & OH expected to see accumulations totaling 2 inches over the two-week horizon.

Wednesday brings new data from USDA with their monthly supply and demand estimates. US wheat production is expected to slip to 1.748 billion bushels from the June forecast of 1.824 driven by falling spring wheat production. For corn, analysts expect the US yield to fall to 169.6 vs 170.7 by USDA in June.

 

In international news, Iraq's state grains board has purchased about 50,000 tonnes of wheat from Australia. Egypt's GASC continues to be an aggressive buyer of wheat tendering twice over the last week.


 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

July 07, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 61

Next Weeks Rain Forecasts should promote Favorable Conditions for Crop Development

Grain Catapulted higher this week

US wheat futures were lower on Friday, retreating further from a two-year high touched earlier in the week, while corn and soybean prices also weakened. The price retreat comes despite further forecasts for hot dry weather in key US wheat-growing regions that have sparked worries about widespread production losses.

 

The most active wheat future (SRW) on the CBOT was down 1.2 percent after closing down 3.8 percent on Thursday. Wheat hit a two-year high earlier in the week of $5.74 ½ a bushel.

 

Exporters sell 143,000 MT of corn for delivery to Mexico, of which 11,000 MT is for 2016/2017 delivery and 132,000 MT for 2017/2018 delivery.

 

Showers Great Lakes/SE OH and TN Valleys/W Plains for the past day; low 90s W Midwest, 90s/low 100s C & NW Plains. Scattered showers in the OH Valley today and N & E Midwest late Sun through Wed (easing dry spots around Great Lakes). Showers next week to be more limited in C IL; dryness also to build in S ND/SD/N. NE/W. IA/SW MN. US spring wheat areas hottest (90s/100s) this weekend and 6-10 day; notable yield loss for at least west two-thirds of belt.

 

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Weekly Export Sales-

 

Actual

Estimated

Wheat - NC

375

300-500

Corn - OC

140

350-550

Corn - NC

74

0-200

Soybeans - OC

365

200-400

Soybeans - NC

73

50-250

 

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

July 06, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 472

Wheat Down in Early Morning Trading

Corn also Heading Lower for the first time in five sessions

Wheat Down in Early Morning Trading

Corn traders have been back and forth for a month now on whether the weather forecasts are threatening to the US crop, but potentially damaging hot temperatures have been absent since mid-June. The forecast for the next two weeks is largely devoid of heat but is also lacking rainfall, which is not viewed favorably by the market as many areas of the Corn Belt have had below-normal precip in recent weeks. Most of the US Corn Belt has not dealt with unseasonable heat since the first half of June and notably cooler temps have prevailed ever since. Weather forecasts as of Wednesday call for the continuation of average-to-cooler conditions for the next two weeks; but without abundant rainfall.

 

The situation in the Dakotas is different, though, as farmers there are dealing with a significant drought that has been laced with frequent bouts of extreme heat. And unfortunately, considerable relief may not be on its way anytime soon. Moisture stress focuses on 20-25% of corn; heat mainly limited to Plains. Limited showers and frequent 90s/100s (including yesterday) stress at least ⅔ of N Plains spring wheat in the next two weeks.

 

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USDA is reporting 4.72 MT of US Soybeans were crushed in May; which calculates to 157.25 million bushels. The following is crop progress reporting:

US Corn; 68% good-to-excellent vs 67% a week ago

US Soybean; 64% good-to-excellent vs 66% a week ago

US Spring Wheat; 37% good-to-excellent vs 40% a week ago

US Winter Wheat; 48% good-to-excellent vs 49% a week ago

US Corn; 10% silking vs 4% a week ago

US Spring Wheat; 59% headed vs 36% a week ago

 

The dollar’s bounce stalled on Thursday after the US Federal Reserve’s policy minutes failed to provide a clear picture of futures interest rate increases, although investors were reluctant to add bearish bets before some key US data. Federal Reserve policymakers were increasingly split on the outlook for inflation and how it might affect the future pace of interest rate rises.

 

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

July 05, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 254

Corn Higher on Forecasts for Warmer and Drier Weather this Week in the US

Soybeans higher on Technical Buying and Short Covering

Rains in the past 2 days favored S Plains/N Delta; spotty activity C North Dakota into C Minnesota and C & SE Midwest. Showers less than expected in NW Midwest; rains favor Great Lakes/far S Midwest/Delta through Friday. The front now arrives at middle of next week, with N & E Midwest trending wetter; similar placement in 11-15 day. Very low forecast confidence overall right now on Midwest rain placement as models are shifting frequently.

 

Recent weather model runs suggest the first half of July will be drier than normal across the Corn Belt. This is not necessarily ideal, but the concern is mitigated by the fact that temperatures are unlikely to be excessively warm. Either way, the weather forecast is questionable enough to have corn market-watchers on edge.

 

The early feel on CBOT grains and soy seems to be higher based on forecasts for warmer and drier weather in the US Midwest and Plains.

 

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Ships carrying as much as 700,000 tonnes of soybeans are lined up along China’s coast waiting to discharge, traders said, as huge purchases in recent months by the world’s top buyer led to severe congestion and lifted stockpiles to multi-year highs.

The slowdown at the ports and long wait times to clear customs may threaten a recent rally in Chinese soymeal prices and may stir concern about demand from major exporters Brazil and the US.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

July 03, 2017 | | Views: 500
July 03, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 243

Wheat Catapulted Higher in the Overnight

Heat and Dry Weather in the Northern Plains

Wheat catapulted higher overnight bringing soybeans and corn along for the ride.

 

USDA announced the sale of 114,300 MT of corn sold to Mexico of which 22,860 was for 2017/18 and 91,440 is for 2018/19, 120,650 MT of soymeal, to Mexico of which 92,540 MT was for 2017/18 and 28,110 is for 2018/19 and a 140,000 MT sale of wheat to unknown destinations split between hard and soft red wheat for 2017/18 delivery.

 

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Heat and dry conditions in the Northern Plains continue to be the lightening rod for the spring wheat market. Over the weekend, 3-day rain totals showed little to no moisture over much of SD, ND & MT. The 6 to 10 day forecast shows heat continues to be a feature in the Northern Plains and below normal moisture is expected thru all of the Plains and stretching across the Cornbelt to IL. This will become important for corn where the crop will be going into pollination during this time period.

 

On Friday, the European Commission its forecast for 2017 cereal production in the European Union following a June heat wave. The Commission reduced its outlook for common wheat usable production, excluding durum, to around 138.9 MMT, from 141.3 MMT last month.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

June 30, 2017 | Kevin McNew | Views: 359
June 29, 2017 | Kevin McNew | Views: 329
June 29, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 255

Weekly Export Sales Continue to Show Pathetic New Crop Deals

Spring Wheat Continues to Climb

Grains were higher overnight as spring wheat continued its vertical ascendent to new 3-year highs.

 

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This morning, Stats Canada released their acreage report showing only 22.4 million acres of wheat vs 23.2 million acres in 2016. The 22.4 million acre number is slightly below trade estimates of 22.7. Also fueling spring wheat this morning was the Drought Monitor which shows 25% of ND is in extreme drought, which is up from 7.7% last week.

 

Meanwhile, weekly export sales continued to show pathetic new-crop deals for corn and soybeans. Weekly new-crop soybean sales netted only 2,000 MT for the week. Year-to-date export sales for new-crop soybeans are a meager 3.4 MMT well below last year’s total of 7.0 MMT for this time of year. You have to go back to 2006 when new-crop soy sales were this low, but the real concern is USDA has factored in an all-time high for exports in their 2017 balance sheet which could cause soy stocks to balloon in future reports.

 

WEEKLY EXPORT SALES (in thousand MT)

 

 

   Actual

  Expected

Wheat

   492

  350-550

Corn-OC

   316

  350-550

Corn-NC

    68

  100-300

Soy-OC

   312

  200-400

Soy-NC

     2

  100-300

 

 

Today will be the last trade date before First Notice Day for the July grain contracts while tomorrow brings two potentially big reports from USDA on Grain Stocks and Acreage.

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

June 28, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 266

Grains Muted Overnight in Listless Trading

Spring Wheat Continues its Climb

Grains were muted overnight in listless trade except in spring wheat which continued to march higher to its own drumbeat.

 

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Corn was holding solid gains mid-day on Tuesday but new data from the weather model showed much cooler temps in the Plains and Western Cornbelt than had been previously forecast. That information sent corn prices retreating and they have been unable to muster a rally since.

 

In Russia, the wheat harvest is underway with yields coming in lower than last year. According to the Ag Ministry as of June 27, farmers had harvested 229,000 tonnes of grain by bunker weight from 54,000 hectares with an average yield of 4.24 tonnes per hectare. This compares to 2.1 million tonnes reaped from 486,000 hectares with an average yield of 4.36 tonnes per hectare at the same date in 2016.

 

Over the next two weeks weather continues to look fairly favorable for major corn producing states. Nebraska has the most heat in the top 3 states, but even there high temps are expected to only briefly see above 90 degrees. However, rainfall for the two week forecast has been lowered from yesterday’s model in NE showing only 1.5” of rain vs 2.5” yesterday.

 

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

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