October 25, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 420

Grains Push Higher in the Overnight with Soybeans Leading the Push

In the overnight session the grains traded higher with soybeans leading the way. December Corn was up ¾ of a cent, November soybeans were up 6 ¾ cents and December Chicago wheat was up 1 cent. March soybeans are now trading back above $10 dollars. There is some light snow forecast in Minnesota by Thursday as cooler than normal temperatures become widespread throughout the Midwest by this weekend. The 11-15 day forecast expects heavier snow, but confidence on that event is still quite low.  

 

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Soybeans this morning has continued its push higher since the low established on August 16th this year. Since that time we have seen a relatively orderly uptrend with trend line support dates of August 30th, September 12th and October 12th. This week, trade action approached trendline support but has not tested it.

 

Rains in southern Brazil corn and soybean producing region are helping to improve the moisture as farmers continue planting. The rains are expected to spread across the major growing regions over the next two weeks, which is favorable for the Brazilian corn and soybean crop. Argentina which has been getting excessive moisture is expected to see a break in precipitation late next week but the 11-15 day forecast shows a return of rain again.

This morning Taiwan’s purchasing group MFIG issued an international tender to buy 40,000 to 65,000 metric tons of corn that can be sourced from the United States, South Africa or South America.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

October 24, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 430

Crop Progress Report Shows Soybeans are 70% Harvested

Grains Pull Back Slightly in Overnight Session

In the overnight session the grains pulled back slightly after recording nice gains in yesterday’s session. December Corn is trading down 1 cent, November soybeans is down 2 ¾ cents and December Chicago wheat is down 2 ¼ cents this morning.

 

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The crop progress report released yesterday after the market closed showed that soybeans were 70 percent harvested above analyst expectations which were expecting 64 percent complete. Soybean harvest is now only 3 percentage points away from the five year average harvest pace for this time of year. Corn harvest was reported at 38 percent complete, well below the five year average of 59 percent and behind expectations which was expecting the report to show 44 percent of corn harvested.

 

Winter wheat planted increased to 75 percent complete, up from 60 percent a week ago. This was slightly above analyst expectations which were looking for winter wheat to be 73 percent planted.

On Monday the U.S. Commerce Department set their preliminary anti-dumping duties in a range from 54.36 to 70.05 percent on soy-based biodiesel from Argentina. Indonesia’s palm oil biodiesel duties were set to 50.71 percent. Indonesia plans on contesting the anti-dumping duty said a senior trade ministry official in Jakarta. He went on to say “We will fight to counter the U.S. dumping allegation.”  


 

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October 23, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | | Views: 319

Grains Were Mixed in the Overnight Session

Cattle on Feed Report Released on Friday was Mostly Bearish

In the overnight session the grains were mixed with December corn up ¼ cent, November soybeans down ¾ of a cent and December Chicago wheat unchanged. Rains over the weekend slowed harvest throughout the Central Midwest with precipitation in Eastern Kansas, Iowa, Missouri and Illinois. Precipitation is expected to continue east into eastern Illinois and Indiana. The forecast over the next five days is for precipitation to continue delaying field work over the eastern grain belt.

 

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The market is waiting for the USDA to release its latest crop progress report after the market closes Monday afternoon. Analysts are expecting soybean harvest to be around 70 percent complete and corn harvest to move to 42-43 percent complete. Corn and Soybean basis was unchanged on the week, but the delays in harvest have some feedlots and ethanol facilities increasing their basis in Nebraska and South Dakota by as much as 10 cents.

The Cattle on Feed report that was released on Friday bearish for the most part. All cattle on feed as of October 1st was 105 percent of last year which was above the 104.6 percent that the trade was expecting. Cattle placed on feed in September was 113 percent, compared to the 108 percent expected by the market. Marketings continue to be strong however, with 103 percent marketed, beating the average analyst guess of 102.6 percent.

In the latest Commitments of Traders report the total net short positions held by managed money increased by 7,747 positions from last week. The net position held by managed money for soybeans increased its length by 37,176 last week to 68,168.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

October 20, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 285

Weekly Cash Comments

Weekly Cash Commentary for week ending 10/20/2017

Grain basis took a break from last week’s sell-off to mostly stabilize as slow harvesting keeps pipeline supplies relatively limited, especially for corn. On the week, there was no change in corn and soybean basis on average across the US.

Basis for corn continues to hold up with current basis levels running on par with the same time last year, but soybeans are about 10 cents a bushel weaker than this time last year. 

 

This week saw some strength from corn buyers as end-users in the Western Cornbelt continue to see tight pipeline supplies. Double-digit gains in basis were showing up by feedlots and ethanol plants in NE and SD. River terminals saw some modest weakness along the lower MS River and the OH River region as harvest there picked up pace.

 

 

For soybeans, buyers were mostly steady to slightly weaker as harvest hits the mid-point for the year. Some soy crush facilities showed 10 to 15 cent losses this week across IA/IL/IN.

 

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October 20, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 237

Corn Flat to Firm This Morning; Wheat Inching Higher

Overnight Session Had Soybeans Inching Higher

In the overnight session soybeans pushed a bit higher with November up 4 cents. December corn traded up ¾ of a penny and Chicago Wheat was up 2 ¼ cents. Rains expected in the eastern Midwest will likely delay harvest over the weekend and into Monday. Further precipitation in the eastern Midwest is expected to delay harvest even more late next week.   

 

  • EXPORTERS SELL 198,000 METRIC TONS OF SOYBEANS FOR DELIVERY TO CHINA DURING THE 2017/2018 MARKETING YEAR- USDA
  •  
  • EXPORTERS SELL 120,000 METRIC TONS OF CORN FOR DELIVERY TO SPAIN DURING THE 2017/2018 MARKETING YEAR- USDA
  •  
  • EXPORTERS SELL 125,000 METRIC TONS OF CORN FOR DELIVERY TO UNKNOWN DESTINATIONS DURING THE 2017/2018 MARKETING YEAR- USDA

 

Today the Ukrainian Agricultural Ministry announced that Ukraine has planted 90 percent of the expected winter wheat area. The report showed 5.5 million hectares of winter wheat compared to the 6.15 million hectares that are expected. Harvest pace in France has progressed this week with the latest report from FranceAgriMer reporting that 56 percent of the crop has been harvested, up from 28 percent last week. Soft wheat planting progressed to 47 percent complete up from 20 percent last week.  

 

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Informa released their latest 2018 planting estimates yesterday. Their forecast is for corn plantings next year to be at 90.460 million acres and soybeans at 90.347 planted acres. This compares to the latest WASDE report that shows planted acreage for the 2017 crop at 90.4 million acres for corn and 90.2 million planted acres for soybeans. Informa also estimates  that all wheat acreage planted for the 2018 harvest will be at 45.875.


 

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October 19, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 345

Strong Export Sales for Corn and Wheat This Morning

Grains Traded Slightly Higher in the Overnight Session

In the overnight session the grains traded slightly higher with December corn up 1 cent, November soybeans up 1 cent and December Chicago Wheat up 1 cent. The U.S. forecast shows some chance for precipitation in the eastern Midwest early next week which could slow an already lagging harvest.

 

EXPORTERS SELL 384,000 METRIC TONNES OF SOYBEANS FOR DELIVERY TO CHINA DURING THE 2017/2018 MARKETING YEAR.-USDA

 

Yesterday’s rains favored southern Brazil and more precipitation is expected in the 6-15 day forecast which should ease concerns about dryness in that region. In Argentina however, it was wetter than expected and continues to put pressure on planting which has been delayed due to excessive moisture this season.

 

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Ethanol production over the last week increased sharply to 1.019 million barrels per day from 967 BPD. This was a strong increase from last week and was 2.1 percent above last year during the same time. Ethanol stocks were recorded at 902 million gallons which was down 2 million gallons from last week’s level. However, the drawdown in ethanol stocks which typically starts in September and continues into November hasn’t really happened yet this year. Ethanol stocks have actually increased since the first of September and are now 12.9 percent higher than last year. This is a development that needs to be monitored and brings into question how robust demand is for Ethanol as year-over-year production increases.   

 

 

Export sales for wheat and corn were strong this morning with both grains beating trade expectations. Wheat sales were up sharply this week and were 75 percent over the four week moving average. The majority of wheat sales were to Mexico, China, Unknown Destinations and Japan. Corn export sales beat expectations but declined 21 percent from last week. Soybeans sales missed expectations, down 27 percent from last week with reductions reported from Unknown Destinations and Costa Rica.


 

Weekly Export Sales-

 

Actual

Estimated

Wheat

615

250-450

Corn

1,254

800-1,100

Soybeans

1,275

1,300-1,700


 

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

October 18, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 322

Dry Weather in the Midwest Expected to Boost Harvest

Grains Traded Lower in the Overnight Session

In the overnight session the grains traded slightly lower with December corn down ¼ cent, November soybeans down 1 cent and December Chicago wheat down 2 ¼ cents. Dry weather throughout the Midwest is expected to boost harvest pace according to the latest 6-15 day forecast.  

 

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Brazil has received scattered rain in the west and far south yesterday which will continue to aid planting which had been lagging at 12 percent planted due to dry weather. More precipitation is expected in the 11-15 day forecast which should provide widespread benefit for the Brazilian corn and soybean crop. Argentina is expecting showers in the eastern part of the country today but is expected to make progress planting over the next week.  

 

 

The U.S. Wheat Associates has announced that they will be closing their office in Egypt after 40 years. The trade group promotes U.S. wheat exports, but the sharp shift away from U.S wheat in favor of Russia and the Black Sea wheat has shrunk Egypt to the 37th buyer of U.S wheat overall. Egypt held the rank of fifth largest market for U.S. wheat and 2nd largest market for soft red winter wheat as recently as the 2012/13 marketing year. The U.S Wheat Associates is looking at refocusing its efforts toward higher value markets in Asia and Latin America.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

October 17, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 467

Latest Crop Progress Report Results

Grains Slide Lower in the Overnight Session

In the overnight session the grains slid lower with December corn down 1 ¼ cents, November Soybeans down 5 ½ cents and December Chicago wheat down ½ penny. The latest forecast shows rain returning to the Midwest in the 11-15 day forecast which should slow an already lagging harvest progress.

 

Exporters sell 115,000 MT of Corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2017/2018 marketing year. Exporters sell 146,000 MT of Corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2017/2018 marketing year.-USDA

 

The latest Crop Progress report showed that only 28 percent of corn has been harvested as of October 15th compared to a four year average of 47 percent harvested. Corn condition increased 1 percent to 65 percent rated good-to-excellent. Soybean harvest is moving along a bit faster than corn with 49 percent harvested but is still behind the four year average of 60 percent. Soybean’s rated good-to-excellent held steady at 61 percent this week. The report also showed that 60 percent of wheat has been planted this year which is behind the five year average of 71 percent. There should be more opportunities for fieldwork this week with the forecast showing clear weather through the middle of next week.

 

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The NOPA Crush Report which was released yesterday showed that 136.419 million bushels of soybeans were crushed in the month of September, down 6.005 million bushels from August and below the average analyst guess of 138.071 million bushels. Despite missing expectations this year’s September soybean crush was 6.184 million bushels over last September’s numbers. The NOPA report showed that oil stocks were at 1.302 billion pounds, which was slightly below the expectations of 1.332 billion pounds.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

October 13, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 277

Weekly Cash Comments

Weekly Cash Commentary for week ending 10/13/2017

In the cash market this week there was a bit of buoyancy as river barge markets reverted to more normal pricing and corn harvest ground to a near halt. On the week, soybean basis was up 2 cents while corn basis posted a modest 1-cent advance.

 

With the slow progress for corn harvest, basis levels held mostly stable on the week with some modest gains in the Upper Plains and Western Cornbelt where wet weather has hampered cutting progress. Along the river system, a drop in barge rates helped fuel a big 10-cent advance on the week. But for ethanol plants as a group they were off 1-cent on the week.

 

For soybeans, the river markets also catapulted higher by 16 cents a bushel from last week’s disastrous readings. Soy crush plants added 2 cents a bushel as a group but plants located closer to river markets followed higher with double digit gains.

 

Harvest delays are still expected as this weekend should bring rain into the NW part of the grain belt. Some localized flooding is possible, especially in central and southern Iowa, southern Wisconsin, northern Missouri, and northwestern Illinois. This could continue to provide support to corn basis.

 

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October 13, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 482

Soybeans Advance Over News from USDA

Chicago Soybean Futures Rose on Friday

In the overnight session, Dec Corn was up 1.5 cents, Nov Soybeans were up 3.75 cents and Dec Wheat was up a little over 1 cent.

 

Chicago soybean futures rose on Friday, a day after the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) unexpectedly cut its forecast of the US soy crop. The USDA report put out a bullish yield number for the US crop of 49.5 bushels an acre, down from last month’s forecast of 49.9 bushels. Corn was weakened by the USDA’s expectation of a larger US crop, while wheat was underpinned by improving export prospects for US supplies.

 

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China, the world’s top soybean buyer, imported 8.1 million tonnes of the oilseed in September, up 12.7 percent on a year ago, after crushers saw margins improve over the summer and anticipated healthy demand for soymeal from hog farms. The September figure brings imports for the 2016/17 crop year, running from October to September, to 93.5 million tonnes, well above the prior year’s 83.2 million, and another record, according to Reuters calculations.

 

Net Weekly Export Sales-

 

Actual

Estimated

Wheat

175

300-500

Corn

1,593

800-1,100

Soybeans

1,747

900-1,200

 

 

Wheat net sales of 175,000 metric tons for delivery in marketing year 2017/18 were down 65 percent from the previous week. Corn net sales of 1,593,200 MT for 2017/18 were reported; Soybean net sales of 1,747,300 MT for 2017/18 were reported.

 

US consumer prices recorded their biggest increase in eight months in September as gasoline prices soared in the wake of hurricane-related production disruptions at oil refineries in the Gulf Coast area, but underlying inflation remained muted. The increase was the largest since June 2009 and followed a 6.3 percent advance in August. The Labor Department said Harvey was reported to have impacted refinery capacity in the Gulf Coast.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

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