Feed & Grain LIVE! Agribusiness education conference starts in
May 09, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 87

Traders Look for a Modest Drop in Corn and Wheat Carry Outs

USDA Reports 47 Percent of Corn Crop has been Planted

Grains were modestly higher overnight but the recovery felt fairly anemic following Monday’s sell-off.


Looking for $7 a trade commissions with streaming real-time quotes for only $1/month; try a Demo of the Grain Hedge Platform!

 

Monday after the close USDA reported that 47% of the corn crop had been planted. That was up from last week’s tally of 34% and above trade expectations at 44% but below the 52% normal pace for this time of the year. Soy planting came in at 14% planted vs 16% expected. The U.S. winter wheat crop was rated 53% good to excellent, down from 54% the previous week but above expectations for 51%.

 

France’s ag ministry pegged corn plantings at 1.39 million hectares down 2.3% from last year and 14.5% below the recent 5-year average. Dry and cold spring conditions along with persistent drought in the past two seasons have limited farmer sowing there.

 

The Taiwan Flour Millers' Association purchased 95,750 MT of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in a tender which closed on Tuesday. Japan in its usual tender bought 138,000 MT of wheat of which 76,000 MT was of US origin.

On Wednesday, USDA will release their first look at 2017/18 balance sheets. Traders look for a modest drop in wheat and corn carry-outs compared to the current marketing year but soy stocks are expected to build.


 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)


 

May 08, 2017 | Kevin McNew | Views: 189
May 08, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 128

Grains Weaker in the Overnight

In Outside Markets the US Dollar was Higher

Grains were weaker overnight with soybeans leading the complex lower on a 4-cent decline. In outside markets, the US Dollar was higher while equities and crude were in the red to start the day.


Looking for $7 a trade commissions with streaming real-time quotes for only $1/month; try a Demo of the Grain Hedge Platform!

 

Soybean imports to China in April rose 13.4% from a year ago, supported by strong demand from the soymeal industry, data from the China Customs showed on Monday. The total for the month was 8.02 MMT and marked the 4th month in a row of record imports. For the first four months of 2017 Chinese imports are up 18%. China will produce 14.3 MMT of soybeans this year, up 9.2% from 2016, said the China National Grain and Oils Information Center on Monday. Corn output will fall 3.7 percent to 211.5 MMT.

 

In the US, weekend rains were confined to the ECB and Southeast while the US Plains and WCB were dry helping to provide some drying relief. Rains this week are expected to be less intense compared to last week. A swath of moisture should bring 1 to 2 inches of rain from KS to IN this week, but Northern areas should remain fairly dry. But, next week more intense rains should return, targeting saturated soils in MO/IL/KY/IN.


In overnight deals, Pakistan reportedly bought 60,000 MT of US soybeans. Iraq received offers on its wheat tender with the lowest offer coming from US sources. Jordan also was tendering for 100,000 MT of hard milling wheat.

In outside markets, the election of French President Macron was as expected and markets breathed a sigh of relief. Oil prices were trying to stabilize after the intense sell-off last week. OPEC meets on May 25 when it is expected to discuss extending the cuts to the end of 2017, although analysts say a further six-month extension may not be enough.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

May 05, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 87

Kansas Crop Tour Projections

Grains were Mixed in the Overnight

Grains were mixed overnight with wheat and corn trying to reverse yesterday’s sharp sell-off while soybeans were in negative territory.


Looking for $7 a trade commissions with streaming real-time quotes for only $1/month; try a Demo of the Grain Hedge Platform!

 

On Thursday, the KS crop tour pegged the state’s crop at 281 MB, off from 467 MB last year but above the 250 MB which some analysts thought the crop could succumb to if the damage was severe enough. In Oklahoma, no crop tour was done but a private grain firm pegged the crop there at 100 MB off from 137 MB last year.


With these two states accounting for 25% of the US wheat production, and early projections pointing to a 37% loss in production, this sets the stage for next week’s USDA all wheat production forecast for 2017/18, the first of the year. An 1,800 to 1,900 MB crop seems reasonable based on lower acreage and normal, to slightly below normal yield potential. This would suggest new-crop stocks could approach 700 to 800 MB in USDA’s first Supply and Demand report of the year, to be released next week, and off of the 1.1 billion bushel carry-out currently.

Overnight, farm office France AgriMer said 74 percent of soft wheat crops were in good or excellent condition as of May 1, compared with 78 percent a week earlier and marking a fourth consecutive weekly decline. Dry weather in the past month has raised concern about low moisture levels in France after a very dry winter, although rain has returned to much of France this week.

 

China sold 1.82 MMT of corn in a reserve auction overnight. This came in higher than expected suggesting that traders were bullish about corn prices going forward and feed producers were tight on inventories.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

v

May 04, 2017 | Kevin McNew | Views: 195
May 04, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 69

Crop Scouts Reports from 2nd Day of Wheat Tour

Storms Crossing the Plains Today to bring another 2 to 4 Inches of Rain

Grains were lower overnight with wheat and soybeans leading the complex down. Corn was off slightly in quiet trade.


Looking for $7 a trade commissions with streaming real-time quotes for only $1/month; try a Demo of the Grain Hedge Platform!

 

Crop scouts on the second day of an annual three-day tour of Kansas hard red winter wheat fields projected an average yield of 46.9 bushels per acre in the southwestern portion of the state.  The figure is above the Wheat Quality Council tour's prior five-year average for the same area of 39.1, but down from the tour's year-ago finding of 49.3. Oklahoma's 2017 average winter wheat yield is projected at 33.7 bushels per acre, an official with the industry group Plains Grains said on Wednesday.  The estimate compares with the state's official 2016 yield of 39.0 bpa, a record high. Production in Oklahoma, typically the No. 2 or No. 3 U.S. winter wheat state, was forecast at 100.1 million bushels, based on harvested acreage of 2.98 million acres, said Mark Hodges, executive director of Plains Grains.

 

 

A storm crossing the Plains today is expected to bring another 2 to 4 inches of rain to already flooded Missouri and Illinois that will further pressure swollen rivers and streams. Major to catastrophic flooding in expected for some in the coming days. Fields completely under water will be at increased risk for replant. The good news is that by late week all of the rain will move into eastern regions, particularly the Northeast. A drying trend is expected over the entire Corn Belt south into Texas and the Delta for the
rest of the period, but temperatures will remain on the cooler side of normal. Still, planting pace should pick up where fields are dry, particularly in Nebraska and Iowa and points north. Above normal warmth will return to the Plains next week.

 

The European Commission trimmed its forecast for usable production of common wheat in the EU in the upcoming 2017/18 season to 141.9 MMT from 142.2 a month ago. The reduced forecast was still well above last year's estimated output of 134.4 MMT.

 

Export Sales-

 

  Actual

   Estimated

Wheat - OC

  258

   0-150

Wheat - NC

  563

   200-400

Corn - OC

  771

   700-900

Corn - NC

  24

   0-200

Soybeans-OC

  318

   300-500

Soybeans-NC

  12

   100-300

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

May 03, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 33

KC Wheat Gives Back Some of its Gains in the Overnight

Crop Scouts Projections

Wheat found sellers overnight with KC wheat giving back some of the impressive gains over the past few days while corn and soybeans were mostly unchanged.


Looking for $7 a trade commissions with streaming real-time quotes for only $1/month; try a Demo of the Grain Hedge Platform!

 

Crop scouts on the first day of an annual three-day tour of Kansas hard red winter wheat fields projected an average yield of 43.0 bushels per acre in the northern portion of the state, slightly above the average of the previous five years but lower than a year earlier of 47.1. However, agronomists said it was still too early to determine the extent of any damage from heavy snow falls in parts of Kansas, something which could take two weeks. The tour moves south to Wichita, KS heading through western and southwestern Kansas, the heart of hard-red country. Scouts should expect to see worsening conditions as more plants were headed in southern counties and in Oklahoma.

 

Taiwan's feed industry procurement association MFIG on Wednesday purchased about 65,000 MT of corn expected to be sourced from Argentina. China fails to sell any of the 92,620 MT of imported wheat made available at auction of state reserves on Wednesday.

China will start selling corn from its huge state reserves on May 5, the National Grain Trade Center said, aiming to sell up to 2 million tonnes at its first auction. Beijing has about 230 million tonnes of corn in its state reserves, equal to about a year of demand. It was expected to auction the grain at attractive prices this year amid growing pressure to get rid of its ageing stocks.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

May 02, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 212

Wheat Continued to Propel Higher Overnight

USDA Crop Progress Report Findings Show Corn Crop Planted In Line

Wheat continued to propel higher overnight as KC wheat futures climbed to a 6-week high. Soybeans also saw solid advances overnight while corn was mostly unchanged.

 

The weekend storms continue to be spiking wheat markets as traders now try to assess the likely damage. Yield losses are likely by the snow and frosts that hit KS/CO while the wetter areas in E KS/OK could face damage to yields from disease and waterlogging. Because of the development stage of U.S. wheat it would appear that some yield loss has occurred. Heavy snow in Kansas and Colorado has caused some wheat to be knocked over, the Commodity Weather Group said. Snow is expected to melt quickly, but a significant storm is then seen hindering the recovery of lodged Plains wheat.
 


Looking for $7 a trade commissions with streaming real-time quotes for only $1/month; try a Demo of the Grain Hedge Platform!

 

The Taiwan Flour Millers' Association has issued an international tender to purchase 95,750 tonnes of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States, European traders said on Tuesday.

On Monday after the close, USDA’s crop progress report showed 34% of the corn crop planted right in line with the 5-yr average and up from 17% last week. Soybeans bumped up to 10% from 6% last week and 7% for the 5-year average. Winter wheat conditions were unchanged on the week at 54% good-to-excellent.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

May 01, 2017 | Kevin McNew | Views: 160
May 01, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 115

More Storms in the Week Ahead for the USA Crop Areas

Weekend Rain Rallies Wheat Futures

Heavy weekend rains in the Southern Cornbelt and Plains along with frost threats helped fuel a rally Sunday night led by KC Wheat futures. In outside markets, crude oil was lower while the US Dollar was seeing light losses.

 

Temps in the SW hard wheat belt dropped to 30 degrees on Sunday night while some areas on E OK/ N AK / S MO and S IL had 8 to 12 inches of rain over the weekend. SW KS and the OK/TX panhandle had heavy snows accumulations of 10 to 12 inches. While it may have dented the crop, it probably did more to spark a mass exodus of large spec positions. On Friday’s CFTC report, funds are now all-time record short in Chicago wheat futures and options of 162,327 contracts, surpassing the 151,417 contracts in the week ended Oct. 4, 2016. On the net, 20,201 SRW contracts were sold last week, representing the largest sell-off in five weeks.

 

Looking for $7 a trade commissions with streaming real-time quotes for only $1/month; try a Demo of the Grain Hedge Platform!

 

The week ahead looks to bring one more storm which will impact key U.S. crop areas later this week starting in the Plains Tuesday night and Wednesday and then focusing on the lower eastern Midwest, Delta and southeastern states Wednesday evening into Friday. But by the weekend and for the 2nd week, the rains seems to disappear from the forecast models.

Farming agency FranceAgriMer on Friday reported a sharp decline in crop conditions for wheat, with the amount of soft wheat rated good/excellent falling to 78 percent from 85 percent in the week to April 24.


 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

Page 3 of 142 pages  < 1 2 3 4 5 >  Last ›

More Articles