November 07, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 898

Chicago Soybeans Futures Turn Lower on Tuesday as Harvest Reaches Completion

Grains Trading Lower in Overnight Session

In the overnight session the grains are trading lower with December corn down 1 cent, January soybeans down 1 ¾ cents and December wheat down 4 ½ cents.

 

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The latest Crop Progress report, which was released yesterday afternoon by the USDA, showed that harvest pace was in line with analyst expectations. Soybean harvest was 90 percent complete, up from 83 percent complete last week and in line with the five year average. Corn harvest was reported at 70 percent complete, up from 54 percent the previous week, but still behind the five year average pace of 83 percent complete.  

 

Exporters sell 130,000 MT of Corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2017/2018 marketing year - USDA

 

Winter wheat condition improved to 55 percent of the crop rated good-to- excellent, up from 52 percent a week ago. The USDA reported that 91 percent of the crop has been planted, up from 84 percent a week ago. Planting pace is now in line with the five year average.   

This week President Trump will be visiting Beijing as a part of his Asian tour which has included Japan and South Korea so far. While visiting, Chinese soybean buyers will commit to buying more U.S soybeans by signing a letter of intent. The quantity of U.S soybeans is currently unknown, but the gesture marks the importance U.S farm goods in China. China is also expected purchase more U.S. beef after the country lifted a trading ban this year.        

 

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November 06, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 774

Heavy Rains Stalled Harvest in the Midwest; Back on Track This Week

The Grains Were Trading Higher Overnight

In the overnight session the grains are trading higher with December corn up 1 cent, January soybeans up 1 ¾ cents and wheat up 3 ½ cents.

 

Exporters sell 130,000 MT of Corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2017/2018 marketing year-USDA

 

Temperatures are expected to continue being cooler than normal throughout the majority of the grain belt in the 6-10 day forecast. The precipitation is expected to be drier than normal across the Midwest except for northern Minnesota and Wisconsin. The market will be looking to the USDA Supply and Demand report which is scheduled for release on Thursday this week. Early expectations for the report are for corn yield to be moved higher and for soybean yield to be revised lower.   

 

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The wheat market is trading higher on short covering this morning and some positive news that Iraq has purchased 500,000 metric tons of U.S. wheat. Cargill will supply 300,000 metric tons, ADM will supply 150,000 metric tons and another undisclosed firm will supply 50,000 metric tons. Weather in eastern Australia continues to worsen as hot dry weather continues to threaten further deterioration in the wheat production.

 

The cash market is showing some signs of rebounding from harvest lows with the national basis average increasing 1 cent for corn and 3 cents for Soybeans. Barge rates have declined to seasonally normal levels allowing river terminals to improve bids this week between 5-10 cents for corn and 10-15 cents for soybeans. Soybean plants also increased their bids this week, jumping 5 cents on average across the U.S.

 

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November 03, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 1083

Soybean Market Turns Higher

Corn and Soybeans Down in the Overnight Market

In the overnight session the grains are trading lower with December corn down ¼ a cent, January soybeans down 2 ¼ cents and wheat down 1 ¾ cents. Temperatures are expected to be cooler than normal in the 6-10 day outlook for the majority of the grain belt. The precipitation outlook should turn drier than normal over the next 6-10 days.

 

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EXPORTERS SELL 300,000 METRIC TONS OF HARD RED WINTER WHEAT FOR DELIVERY TO IRAQ DURING THE 2017/2018 MARKETING YEAR- USDA

EXPORTERS SELL 102,400 METRIC TONS OF CORN FOR DELIVERY TO MEXICO DURING THE 2017/2018 MARKETING YEAR- USDA

EXPORTERS SELL 135,000 METRIC TONS OF CORN FOR DELIVERY TO SOUTH KOREA DURING THE 2017/2018 MARKETING YEAR- USDA

EXPORTERS SELL 251,000 METRIC TONS OF GRAIN SORGHUM FOR DELIVERY TO UNKNOWN DESTINATIONS DURING THE 2017/2018 MARKETING YEAR- USDA

 

On Wednesday and Thursday the soybean market turned higher after finding trendline support early this week. The soybean uptrend started in late August when the Oilseed printed lows and has provided strong support on August 31st, September 12th, early October and again this week. Soybean export sales beat expectations on Thursday which also helped to lift prices.  

  

 

Yesterday, Informa announced their latest production estimates, seeing 2017 corn production at 14.410 billion bushels with a yield of 173.4 bushels per acre. Informa’s Soybean estimate were set at 4.447 billion bushels with a yield at 49.7 bushels per acres. This compares to the latest FCStone yield of 173.7 bushels per acre for corn and 49.9 bushels per acre for soybeans. Both private estimates were greater than the latest October USDA estimates which have Corn production pegged at 14.280 billion bushels with yield of 171.8 bushels per acre and USDA soybean production estimates at 4.431 billion bushels with a yield of 49.5 bushels per acre. On November 9th the USDA will release their latest supply and demand estimates.

 

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November 02, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 1122

US Winter Wheat Planting Nearing Completion

Grains Moved Higher in the Overnight Session

In the overnight session the grains moved higher with December corn up 1 ½ cents, January soybeans up 3 ¼ cents and December Chicago wheat up 3 ¾ cents this morning. Wheat’s move higher this morning appears to be more short covering action after the grain broke through August lows early on this week. The previous low, which was once support will now likely turn to overhead resistance around 4.23 on the December SRW chart.  


 

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Weekly ethanol production increased again this week to 1.056 million barrels per day up from 1.039 million bpd. This was a strong weekly production was 3.3 percent above last year’s production and is the 4th highest ethanol producing week on record. Ethanol stocks increased to 21.474 million barrels from 21.034 million barrels last week. Year-over-year stocks continue to rise as ending stocks remain steady during a period when the seasonal tendency is to reduce ethanol stocks. In the latest Grain crushings report released yesterday afternoon, the USDA showed that 447.6 million bushels of corn was used for ethanol production in the month of September, up from 435.2 million bushels last year. The USDA also stated that 1.847 million metric tons of DDGs were produced in September which was down 1.965 million from last year.

 

Exporters sell 1,356,360 MT of Corn for delivery to Mexico, of which 845,820 MT is for 2017/2018 delivery and 510,540 MT is for 2018/2019 delivery-USDA

 

The Oilseed Crush report, which was released yesterday at 2 PM CST showed that 145.35 million bushels were crushed in the month of September which was inline with analyst expectations of 145.4 million bushels. The USDA reported that soy oil ending stocks were 1.711 billion pounds, which was above expectations of 1.664 billion pounds.

Rains today will continue to slow planting progress in Argentina. With limited precipitation in the forecast early next week there should be an opportunity for fieldwork before rain returns to the forecast by late next week.

 

Export sales beat expectations for Soybeans with strong sales to China totaling to 1,531,400 metric tons this week. Corn on the other hand recorded sales on the low end of expectations, down 37 percent from the previous week and down 33 percent from the four week average. Wheat sales were mostly steady, down only 4 percent from last week and in the middle of trade expectations.

 

Weekly Export Sales-

 

Actual

Estimated

Wheat

347

250-450

Corn-OC

811

800-1,100

Corn-NC

90

0-100

Soybeans-OC

1,967

1,450-1,850

Soybeans-NC

15

0-50

 


 

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November 01, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 977

Rains in the Midwest Slow Corn/Soy Harvest in Next Two Weeks

Corn and Soybeans Trade Higher in the Overnight Session

In the overnight session corn and soybeans traded higher with December corn up 1 cent and January soybeans up ¾ cents. Wheat struggled yesterday to gain any traction as the grain traded through support set on August 29th at 4.22 ½. Chicago wheat decisively broke and closed below support level and looks as if it will continue the downward push today. Ample stocks and record wheat export from Russia continues to pressure the market.

 

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Today the USDA will release the Grain Crushings and Oilseed Crushings report at 2 PM CST. According to a Reuters poll, analysts are expecting for the Oilseed report to show soybeans crushed in the month of September around 145.4 million bushels down from the 151.6 million bushels in August. The range of estimates stretched from 144.2 million to 147 million bushels. Soy oil stocks are estimated at 1.664 billion pounds down from 1.81 billion pounds in the end of August.

The NOPA crush report which is released early on in the month showed disappointing crush numbers for the month of September. NOPA released that its members crushed 136.414 million bushels which missed expectations by nearly two million bushels.

 

This morning it was announced that China will increase state purchases of grains. The move is a result of heavy rains and high humidity impacting the rice, wheat and corn quality.  


 

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October 31, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 724

Harvest Pace In Line with Market Expectations

Grains Mixed in the Overnight Session

In the overnight session the grains were mixed with November soybeans up 2 ½ cents. December corn is trading down ½ a cent and December Chicago wheat was down ½  of a cent. November soybeans started the day out strong yesterday, but early gains evaporated by the close. Uptrend support is still intact for November Soybeans at $9.70, but yesterday’s trade action was not a ringing endorsement for the resumption of soybeans uptrend.

 

Exporters sell 100,000 metric tons of Hard Red Winter Wheat for delivery to Iraq during the 2017/2018 marketing year. USDA

 

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The crop progress report showed that harvest pace advanced in line with market expectations. U.S. corn harvest advanced to 54 percent complete, up from 38 percent complete a week ago. Soybean harvest is now 83 percent complete, up from 70 percent last week. Soybean harvest is right on pace with the average of the last five years, but corn harvest is behind the average pace of 72 percent complete. Next week’s harvest pace should progress rapidly across the western part of the Midwest but could experience some delays with more precipitation expected across the eastern grain belt.

 

Winter wheat planting progress advanced to 84 percent complete, up from 75 percent the previous week. Traders are concerned that the difficult planting weather combined with the low wheat prices is encouraging farmers to switch acres out of wheat. Currently, December Chicago wheat is trading lower and looks like it will test a support level set on August 29th at 4.22 ½.

 

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October 30, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 482

Reported This Morning; Newly Harvested Soybeans Have Less Protein

Corn and Soybeans Up This Morning

In the overnight session the grains were mixed with soybeans trading higher. December corn was up ¼ of a cent, November Soybeans were up 4 ¾ cents and December Chicago wheat was down ¾ of a cent. Soybeans finished last week pulling all the way back to the uptrend support around $9.70 before closing Friday in the green. A strong close today would signal the possible resumption of the uptrend that started after Soybeans put in a low on August 16th.

 

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Rains were scattered across all of the corn and soybean growing regions of Brazil and the southern half of Argentina this weekend. The Brazilian rains are beneficial for the crop and are helping to keep planting pace at average levels. On Thursday, Brazil announced that soybeans are 30 percent planted which on pace with the 5 year average, but slightly behind last year. The Argentina rains, which are delaying soybean planting are expected to return on Thursday followed by five days of clear weather.  

 

The Commitments of Traders report showed that the speculators net short position for corn increased again this week by only 10,659 contracts to -213,806. Chicago Wheat also saw an increase in the speculators net short position by 1,645 to -101,110. This week soybean speculators reduced their net long positions by 28,390 to 2,065.

Reuters reported over the weekend that newly harvested soybean have had less protein than in years past which has forced processors like Bunge to cut the amount of nutrients they can guarantee in soymeal.

 

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October 27, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 431

Corn and Soybean Flash Sales Noted This Morning

Soybeans and Wheat Up in the Overnight Session

In the overnight session the grains traded lower with December corn down 1 ¼ cents, November Soybeans up 1 and December Chicago wheat down 1 ½ cents. Corn has been trading in a sideways pattern since the end of August and is currently trading in the middle of the range. November Soybeans will likely test its trendline support today or early next week which will be a key event to observe.  


EXPORTERS SELL 238,000 METRIC TONS OF SOYBEANS FOR DELIVERY TO CHINA DURING THE 2017/2018 MARKETING YEAR

EXPORTERS SELL 132,000 METRIC TONS OF CORN FOR DELIVERY TO SPAIN DURING THE 2017/2018 MARKETING YEAR

 

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The weather forecast in Argentina continues to bring moisture which has slowed planting this season. Although Eastern Argentina will see a brief pause in the precipitation today, additional rain is expected late this weekend with even more moisture is in the forecast for next Wednesday through Friday. Soybean planting started over two weeks ago and was reported at 1.8 percent complete in the latest agricultural report.

China has announced that it has cut its minimum purchase price for wheat to $346 per metric ton, which is down 2.5 percent. The move was announced by the National Development and Reform Commission and was intended to help lower the country's massive wheat stockpiles. The cut was widely anticipated and is not expected to impact winter wheat planting decisions for the next season.  

 

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October 26, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 404

Impressive Weekly Export Sales Numbers for Soybeans

Grains Were Mixed in the Overnight Session

In the overnight session the grains were mixed with December corn up ½ a cent, November soybeans up 3 cents and December Chicago wheat up ¾ cent. The strong export sales for soybeans this week should help lift prices in the early trade this morning.

 

U.S. Ethanol production rose for a second week in a row to 1.039 million barrels per day. Ethanol production rose 5 million gallons a week and was the strongest production numbers in six weeks. Despite the sharp rise in production we did see ethanol stocks slip by .446 million barrels last week to 21.034 million barrels. Ethanol stocks typically experience a seasonal drawdown starting in the beginning of September, but this year they have held steady. Ethanol stocks are 5.6% above last year's levels and are a record for this time of the year.  

 

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This morning the International Grains Council announced that it has raised its forecast for the World Wheat crop in 2017-18 to 748.5 million metric tons, up from 747.6 million metric tons. The group's corn production estimate increased by 5.2 million metric tons to 1.034 billion metric tons.

 

 

Export sales were strong for both corn and soybeans last week. Soybean sales were up 67 percent from the previous week and significantly outpaced expectations with an increase in sales to China. Corn sales were on the high side of expectations, but were up by a marginal three percent from last week. Wheat sales softened from last week to 360,600 metric tons, down 41 percent from last week and on the lower end of expectations.   


 

Weekly Export Sales-

 

Actual

Estimated

Wheat

360

300-500

Corn

1,288

800-1,200

Soybeans

2,129

1,200-1,600


 

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October 25, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 419

Grains Push Higher in the Overnight with Soybeans Leading the Push

In the overnight session the grains traded higher with soybeans leading the way. December Corn was up ¾ of a cent, November soybeans were up 6 ¾ cents and December Chicago wheat was up 1 cent. March soybeans are now trading back above $10 dollars. There is some light snow forecast in Minnesota by Thursday as cooler than normal temperatures become widespread throughout the Midwest by this weekend. The 11-15 day forecast expects heavier snow, but confidence on that event is still quite low.  

 

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Soybeans this morning has continued its push higher since the low established on August 16th this year. Since that time we have seen a relatively orderly uptrend with trend line support dates of August 30th, September 12th and October 12th. This week, trade action approached trendline support but has not tested it.

 

Rains in southern Brazil corn and soybean producing region are helping to improve the moisture as farmers continue planting. The rains are expected to spread across the major growing regions over the next two weeks, which is favorable for the Brazilian corn and soybean crop. Argentina which has been getting excessive moisture is expected to see a break in precipitation late next week but the 11-15 day forecast shows a return of rain again.

This morning Taiwan’s purchasing group MFIG issued an international tender to buy 40,000 to 65,000 metric tons of corn that can be sourced from the United States, South Africa or South America.

 

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