May 12, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 295

Expiration of Week 2 Options is Today

Grains Drift in Quiet Trade

Grains drifted in quiet trade heading into Friday’s trade with wheat showing positive gains while corn and beans continued to paint the negative side of the trade ledger.  


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Today is the expiration of week 2 options on July futures. For corn, the time value on premium for an at-the-money 370 put/call is about 1 cent a bushel as the market has zero fear about market movements. With the market at 369.25, the put (OZC2K7 P3.7) is about 1 ¾ and the call (OZC2K3 C3.7) is ¾.

 

The wheat crop in France showed slight improvements after recent rains brought some relief. In its weekly crop report, FranceAgriMer estimated that 76 percent of soft wheat crops were in good or excellent condition as of May 8, compared with 75 percent a week earlier, breaking a run of four weekly declines.

 

Overnight, heavy rains continued to hit SE KS, AR, OK, MO, KY & TN which is a region plagued by wet conditions this planting season. The next 48 hours should see rains in the Southeast and heading up to the Mid Atlantic, but the remainder of the Cornbelt looks dry which should aid planting progress.


 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

May 11, 2017 | Kevin McNew | Views: 429
May 11, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 266

Weekly Export Sales Numbers Disappointing This Morning

Grains Weaker Heading Into the Morning Break

Grains were feeling weaker heading into the morning break as dismal export sales pushed prices lower.


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Yesterday’s USDA report did little to change the overall outlook of abundant US and global supplies. The first reporting of new-crop 2017 carry-out did show ending stocks being cut, but at 914 MB of wheat and 2,110 MB of corn, these are still historically high values. Soybean carry-out was smaller than expected at 485 MB vs 555 expected, but it was made possible by a huge 100 MB increase in exports which may be difficult to muster in an environment with massive South American supplies.

 

This morning, CONAB bumped their Brazil soy crop forecast to 113 MMT, up from a previous forecast of 110 MMT. Corn is expected to come in at 92.8 vs a previous estimate of 91.5 MMT. Yesterday, USDA pegged those crops at 111.6 and 96, respectively.

 

 

This morning’s weekly export sales report were disappointing as corn saw net cancellations for new-crop delivery and old-crop deals that were a paltry 277,000 MT vs 700-900,000 expected.
 

Export Sales-

 

 Actual

   Estimated

Wheat - OC

 -24

   100-300

Wheat - NC

 273

   150-350

Corn - OC

 277

   700-900

Corn - NC

 -55

   50-250

Soybeans-OC

 381

   300-500

Soybeans-NC

 70

   0-200



The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)
May 10, 2017 | Kevin McNew | Views: 478
May 10, 2017 | Editor's View | Elise Schafer | Views: 555

Top Five Reasons to Attend Feed & Grain LIVE

Why should you attend? Because of the education, trade show, prizes and more!

Top Five Reasons to Attend Feed & Grain LIVE

Feed & Grain LIVE is just around the corner, but it’s not too late to decide to attend. Need help making your decision? Here are five key reasons you won’t want to miss this important conference:

  1. 2.5 Days of Education – Vital presentations to help you handle FSMA and OSHA regulations, improve your grain quality management and grain merchandising strategies, tips for training and cross-training and insights into world markets
  2. General Session – Greg Martinelli will deliver a captivating, comedic address featuring real-world examples of how agribusinesses can better prepare for the “day to day” type crises  
  3. FSMA Panel – Learn from the industry’s leading FSMA experts about best practices for implementing a written food safety plan
  4. Trade Show – More than 50 exhibitors covering an array of equipment and other products
  5. Two prize giveaways – Every attendee is entered into a drawing for a Yeti® Cooler or a Big Green Egg® !

Plus – You can’t beat the convenient location of Prairie Meadows, in Altoona, Iowa. Extended room discounts until May 15. Get your rooms reserved now.


Time is running out! The event starts Wednesday, May 31. Click here to register now. 

May 10, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 192

USDA Demand Data to be Released Today at 11 CST

Traders expect Corn and Wheat to see a Drop in Carry Out

Grains were mixed in narrow ranges ahead of the USDA report to be released later this morning.


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Overnight, France’s Ag Ministry dropped their wheat carry-out projections for the 2nd month in a row based on higher projected exports. They peg wheat stocks at 2.4 MMT for 2016/17 versus 2.6 MMT last month. This would be a 3-year low and off from the 3.3 million mark last year.

 

In soybeans, traders will carefully scrutinize USDA demand data in the upcoming report. Projections put US carry-out for 2017 at 555 MB, up from the current year carry-out of 445 MB. Soybeans have been supported of late by slow farmer selling in Brazil. Even with a record large crop, farmers there have only sold 50% of their production, a number that is normally around 65% for this time of year.

For corn and wheat, traders expect both crops to see about a 200 MB drop in carry-out between old- and new-crop years. On wheat, USDA will be pegging the winter wheat crop from surveys for the first time this year. Analysts expect a 1,293 MB crop, off from 1,672 last year.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

May 09, 2017 | Kevin McNew | Views: 417
May 09, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 174

Traders Look for a Modest Drop in Corn and Wheat Carry Outs

USDA Reports 47 Percent of Corn Crop has been Planted

Grains were modestly higher overnight but the recovery felt fairly anemic following Monday’s sell-off.


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Monday after the close USDA reported that 47% of the corn crop had been planted. That was up from last week’s tally of 34% and above trade expectations at 44% but below the 52% normal pace for this time of the year. Soy planting came in at 14% planted vs 16% expected. The U.S. winter wheat crop was rated 53% good to excellent, down from 54% the previous week but above expectations for 51%.

 

France’s ag ministry pegged corn plantings at 1.39 million hectares down 2.3% from last year and 14.5% below the recent 5-year average. Dry and cold spring conditions along with persistent drought in the past two seasons have limited farmer sowing there.

 

The Taiwan Flour Millers' Association purchased 95,750 MT of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in a tender which closed on Tuesday. Japan in its usual tender bought 138,000 MT of wheat of which 76,000 MT was of US origin.

On Wednesday, USDA will release their first look at 2017/18 balance sheets. Traders look for a modest drop in wheat and corn carry-outs compared to the current marketing year but soy stocks are expected to build.


 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)


 

May 08, 2017 | Kevin McNew | Views: 319
May 08, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 274

Grains Weaker in the Overnight

In Outside Markets the US Dollar was Higher

Grains were weaker overnight with soybeans leading the complex lower on a 4-cent decline. In outside markets, the US Dollar was higher while equities and crude were in the red to start the day.


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Soybean imports to China in April rose 13.4% from a year ago, supported by strong demand from the soymeal industry, data from the China Customs showed on Monday. The total for the month was 8.02 MMT and marked the 4th month in a row of record imports. For the first four months of 2017 Chinese imports are up 18%. China will produce 14.3 MMT of soybeans this year, up 9.2% from 2016, said the China National Grain and Oils Information Center on Monday. Corn output will fall 3.7 percent to 211.5 MMT.

 

In the US, weekend rains were confined to the ECB and Southeast while the US Plains and WCB were dry helping to provide some drying relief. Rains this week are expected to be less intense compared to last week. A swath of moisture should bring 1 to 2 inches of rain from KS to IN this week, but Northern areas should remain fairly dry. But, next week more intense rains should return, targeting saturated soils in MO/IL/KY/IN.


In overnight deals, Pakistan reportedly bought 60,000 MT of US soybeans. Iraq received offers on its wheat tender with the lowest offer coming from US sources. Jordan also was tendering for 100,000 MT of hard milling wheat.

In outside markets, the election of French President Macron was as expected and markets breathed a sigh of relief. Oil prices were trying to stabilize after the intense sell-off last week. OPEC meets on May 25 when it is expected to discuss extending the cuts to the end of 2017, although analysts say a further six-month extension may not be enough.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

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