May 31, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 312
May 31, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 307

Mixed Grain Prices to Start the Week

US Dollar fractionally higher

Grain prices were mixed to start the week with corn and wheat lower while soybeans were higher. In outside markets, the US dollar was fractionally higher while crude oil also moved up slightly.


Moscow consultant IKAR pegged the Russian wheat crop at 63.5 MMT, up 1 MMT than previous forecasts but only 0.5 MMT higher than the latest USDA forecasts. Wheat prices in Russia were firmer last as the rouble strengthened by 1% against the dollar and global price benchmarks rose.


China will postpone a state soybean reserves auction, the National Grain Trade Center said in an online statement on Tuesday. The statement didn't provide a new auction date. According to an earlier statement, China had planned to auction 300,400 MT of soybeans from state reserves on June 1.
 

Weekend rains over the Midwest were not as abundant as predicted Friday and some fieldwork may have advanced, but more importantly fieldwork will be quicker in resuming this week as soon as abundant sunshine returns. Rainfall reached 1.00 to 2.00 inches in eastern Nebraska, southeastern. Similar rainfall occurred in eastern Iowa and northeastern Missouri and in South Dakota and in random locations from northern Iowa and southern Minnesota to parts of Wisconsin random locations across central Ohio.


 

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May 27, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 396
May 27, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 331

Weekly Cash Comments

Weekly Cash Commentary for week ending 5/27/2016

US soybean basis showed good strength this week. While corn lagged behind, mostly steady to weaker loosing half a cent on the week.

Corn basis levels at the Gulf were off sharp this week,  giving up  7 cents  a bushel.  River terminals managed to resist the drop in the Gulf at basis level were only off about one cent a bushel.  Recent export deals in corn should underpin river bids and probably keep them moving higher in the summer. Meanwhile, ethanol plants as a group were down this week by one cent suggesting that ethanol plants aren’t eager for corn. 

Overall, we saw a rise in soybean basis by two and half cents. River thermals were leading the rise higher with changes of nearly eight cents per bushel, moving in lockstep with the Gulf. Soy meal is on a sharp upward trajectory. We saw crush facilities increase basis by almost a nickel.  Strengthening soy crushing margins all the way out to January are encouraging some to increase new crop bean basis. 

 

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May 27, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 285

Grains were mixed and Crude Oil Gave Back on Recent Gains

USDA announced flash sales with China

Grains were mixed with little change from yesterday’s close while crude oil gave back some of its recent gains.

 

USDA announced three flash sales deals this morning with 130,000 MT of China for old crop delivery and 110,000 MT to China for new-crop delivery. A deal for 100,000 MT of soymeal for new crop was also sold to an unknown destination.

 

The Buenos Aires grains exchange said Argentina’s soy harvest was progressing smoothly after drier weather in recent weeks.  Storms that flooded half the agricultural region prompted the loss of 1.65 million hectares dedicated to soybeans. However, the group kept output forecasts for the bean on hold at 56 MMT this season following a recent cut, thanks in large part to record yields in provinces like Buenos Aires and La Pampa. That is only slightly lower than USDA’s estimate of 56.5 MMT.

China has begun to offer up corn reserves to their domestic market to try and eliminate massive stockpiles that have been accumulating over the past 15 years. This morning they announced they auctioned off 889,000 MT.

 

The Western Cornbelt will likely see active rain systems in the next 5 days before turning drier in the 6 to 10 day forecast. Showers will be intermittent and limited in the eastern Midwest and much of the Delta in the next two weeks to aid fieldwork, as the best rains focus west of the Mississippi River. A tropical disturbance will bring some wet weather to the Carolinas this weekend as well, but damage threats are low. Follow-up showers in the 6 to 15 day will keep late fieldwork sluggish in the region.




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May 26, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 357
May 26, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 353

Grains were Higher than Soybeans and Weekly Export Inspections

Crude hit its highest mark since last October

Grains were Higher than Soybeans and Weekly Export Inspections

Grains were higher this morning with soybeans reaching new heights on the rally, briefly getting close to $11 a bushel on front-month July futures. In outside markets, crude oil was also chartering fresh ground eclipsing $50 a barrel, its highest mark since last October.

 

Soybeans continue to be fueled by a surge in soymeal prices tied to the crop shortfall in Argentina. Meal prices bested $400 a ton in the last session and continue to move higher overnight. With Argentina’s soy crop problem, traders are looking for much lower soymeal exports from the world’s #2 supplier.

 

Russia's Sovecon agriculture consultancy has raised its forecast for Russia's 2016 grain crop to 107 MMT from a previously expected level of 105.4 MMT, its presentation at a conference in Moscow showed on Thursday. Its forecast for the wheat crop was raised to 64 MMT from 61.1 MMT. USDA currently has the Russian wheat crop at 63 MMT.

 

Overnight export deals saw Jordan tendering for 100,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat. Meanwhile, South Korea’s MFG walked away from the tender to buy 70,000 MT of corn, citing prices that were too high.

 

Crude oil continues to climb thanks to EIA data on Wednesday showing a 4.1 million barrel drawdown in crude stocks. Expectations were for only a 2.4 million barrel drop in inventories.

 

WEEKLY EXPORT INSPECTIONS

 

                               OC-Act            OC-Exp        NC-Act      NC-Exp

Corn                          1,381       1,000-1,300         246        250-450

Soybeans                    456            300-500           150         300-500

Wheat                         -9               0-200             354         300-500


 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

May 25, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 492
May 25, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 256

Grains Start the Day in Positive Territory

Crude Oil added to yesterday's gains

Grains were in positive territory to start the day with soybeans leading on a 10-cent advance. In outside markets, crude oil and equity futures continued to add to yesterday’s gains.

 

Soybeans were up today buoyed by strength of late in soymeal. Slow farmer selling in Argentina is helping support soymeal prices as international buyers usually find ample supplies from South America this time of year. Also supporting soymeal was word that ADM’s Frankfurt, IN soybean plant was idling for maintenance.

 

In weather, rains is expected to be focused on the center of the US with rains across the W. Midwest will keeping planting slow. The western Midwest finally gets a needed break beginning the middle of next week which promises a longer window to catch up soy seeding and this will extend into the eastern Midwest as well.

 

In overnight export deals, a South Korea feed dealer bought 60,000 MT of feed wheat optional origin while another group in South Korea issued a tender for 70,000 MT of corn.

 

API crude stocks data on Tuesday was supportive as weekly inventories shrunk by 5.1 million barrels versus trade estimates of a 3.3 million barrel decline. That marks the 2nd week in a row of declining API crude stocks, and is the first time since early January that crude stocks reported by API fell for two weeks in a row. Official government data from EIA will be released at 9:30 am CDT today with the data expected to show a 2.4 million barrel drop from last week.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

May 24, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 311

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