December 16, 2014 | Cody Bills | Views: 284

Soybean Slide as Demand Numbers Fail to Impress

Cody discusses the movement in corn, soybeans and wheat and what caused the decline in soybean prices. ​Cody discusses the situation in Russian and how that is impacting the U.S. Wheat market.

December 16, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 313

Russia Aims to Lift Grain Prices

Russia is looking to purchase grain for domestic stocks to help lift prices.

Corn and soybeans are trading lower this morning with corn down 2 ¾ cents, soybeans down 9 ¾ cents and wheat trading 6 ¾ cents higher. Wheat continues its move higher as Russian policy aims at curbing exports.

 

Yesterday, NOPA crush numbers were released at 11 AM CST and came in on the low side of analyst expectation with 161.211 million bushels crushed in November. The average expectation for this report was 165.404 million bushels compared to last year’s November total of 160.145. Analysts ranged from 161 to 176 million bushels. It is important to note that near term demand has been the force lifting soybeans since the beginning of October. Today, more demand news is expected from Chicago as six major soybean buyers from China are expected to sign large purchases. With the first of two major demand stories behind us, soybeans may have a tough time maintaining strength into the end of the week.  

 

Export inspections yesterday showed that Wheat outperformed analyst expectations with 385,974 metric tons inspected for export. Corn disappointed the market with only 546,515 metric tons inspected and soybeans met analyst expectations with 1,820,364 metric tons inspected for export.  

 

This morning wheat prices continue to rise on news from the Russian Agriculture minister after he stated a plan to buy 3.5 million metric tons of grains for state stocks in an attempt to raise Russian grain prices. Yesterday, the slide in the ruble was the largest one-day fall since 1998 and triggered the Russian Central Bank to raise its key interest rate to 17 percent from 10.5 percent. The ruble hit a record low of 80 rubles per dollar. 

December 15, 2014 | Cody Bills | Views: 344

NOPA Crush Numbers Disappoint

The NOPA crush numbers were released at 11 CST and came in below the average guess. Tune into GrainTV to see what else was moving the market.

December 15, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 221

Grains start the week in mostly positive territory

Wheat was fractionally lower in the overnight

Grains started the week in mostly positive territory with soybeans advancing 5 cents while corn was up 3. Wheat was fractionally lower in the night trade.

 

Corn was bolstered in the night session after Friday’s announcement by Syngenta that it was close to approval by China for its MIR 162 variety that has caused US corn trade to China to come to a standstill. The U.S. Grains Council said late Friday it hopes for confirmation of approval “in the coming days.” Although China has had limited imports of corn in recent years, if approved it would give the market a psychological lift.

 

In wheat, Russia’s ag minister reiterated overnight that the country has no plans to restrict its wheat exports. In Ukraine, the weather shows signs of a warming trend where cold weather has been the norm. Well-below normal temperatures have been in control across the Ukraine winter wheat region since the crop was planted back in September. Forecasts call for near to above normal temperatures through much of next week.

 

For soybeans, traders will be watching today’s monthly NOPA crush estimate. Industry analysts expect a large crush estimate, which is expected to show a record high of 165.4 MB for November. In South America, production prospects still look promising for a bumper crop. Although USDA left their soy crop estimate for South America unchanged in last week’s report, private analysts continue to predict higher production levels. In Brazil, rainfall across the region has been above normal over the past 30 days.

December 12, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 359

Grains Trade Higher to Close the Week

Wheat looks as though it will trade higher as the agricultural minister of Russia restrains exports. Tune in to hear Cody discuss FSA numbers as well as corn and soybean basis across the U.S.

December 12, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 155

Geo Grain Commentary

Weekly Cash Commentary

Higher futures prices and aggressive farmer selling helped keep soybean basis unchanged for the week, while US average corn basis rose 2 cents a bushel.

 

For soybeans, river terminals were hard hit this week slipping 5-cents a bushel as weakness at the Gulf combined with an uptick in barge rates pushed basis levels lower. For soybean plants, basis levels were mixed as some plants in the Eastern Cornbelt raised basis levels while some in the West lowered their basis.  On average, soybean plants as a group were off 2 cents a bushel for the week.

 

In corn, river terminals were also hard hit by weakness at the Gulf and higher barge freight with basis levels 4 cents lower for the week. Ethanol buyers continue to bid aggressively for corn as spot ethanol prices continue to defy the steep sell off in crude prices. Crush margins for ethanol producers continue to be favorable and this week’s production figure of 988,000 barrels per day was a marketing year high and putting year-to-date production 4.6% above last year’s tally. Basis levels for ethanol buyers were up 2 cents on average, although some plants were lower on the week thanks to increased farmer selling.

December 12, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 107

Grains extended their gains in the overnight session

Wheat, Corn and Soybeans were up at the end of the night trade

Grains extended their gains in the overnight session with front-month March wheat futures climbing above $6 a bushel but hitting resistance at $6.10. Corn and soybeans were also up posting 5 cent advances at the end of the night trade.

 

On Thursday, Egypt’s GASC announced the results of their wheat tender with Russia garnering most of the business. Prices came in around $252 per MT and were $30 lower than the only US SRTW wheat offer. Nonetheless, US interior values continue to be robust. Millers in Illinois continue to bid aggressively for wheat with basis levels for spot delivery about 50 cents a bushel higher than normal for this time of year.

 

For soybeans, the market continues to be buoyed by strong export demand. Current export commitments for US soybeans have eclipsed 40 MMT while USDA has pegged total exports for the year to reach 47.9 MMT. Traders also look for a large crush estimate in Monday’s monthly NOPA release, which is expected to show a record high of 165.4 MB for November.

 

In corn, export business was on par with expectations last week, but overall commitments year-to-date are on par with the pace needed to reach USDA’s annual forecast. Ukraine is said to be having problems meeting corn contracts signed with China in. Private feed mills in China signed contracts in October to 1.1 MMT but the Ukraine supplier is unlikely to be able to ship all of the contracted volume before the February deadline. 

December 11, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 317

Strong Export Sales

Tune into GrainTV and see Cody break down the export sales reported this morning and see if corn and soybean export sales pace is strong enough to meet the USDA's expectations.

December 10, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 347

WASDE Out Today

Tune into a packed GrainTV as Cody discusses why there was selling pressure after the WASDE report. He also hits on recent news about South American exports and ethanol numbers.

December 09, 2014 | Cody Bills | Views: 335

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