September 12, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 236

Today’s USDA Report Expected to Show Only Minor Adjustments

Ahead of the USDA Report, Corn and Beans Were Off 1 This Morning

Grains went into the morning break with sideways trade action still the major theme. Ahead of the USDA report corn and beans were off 1 while wheat was up 1.

 

EXPORTERS SELL 132,000 METRIC TONS OF SOYBEANS FOR DELIVERY TO UNKNOWN DESTINATIONS DURING THE 2017/2018 MARKETING YEAR- USDA

 

Today’s USDA report at 11 am CDT is expected to show only minor adjustments in production and carry-out figures. But with traders on guard for surprises, there should still be some volatile trade around the report. Overall, traders look for a slight drop in US corn carry-out to 2,180 MB from 2,273; last month on a US yield of 168.2. For soybeans, ending stocks are expected to dip to 442 MB from 475 last month based on a 48.8 bushel yield.

 

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On Monday after the close, USDA showed the corn crop was 5% harvested on par with the long-term average for this time of year. Condition ratings for corn continued to hold firm at 61% while soybean conditions dipped 1%.

Overnight, the French ag minister estimated the corn crop there at 12.75 MMT unchanged from last month and 8.9% on the year. The wheat crop was pegged at 37.8 MMT up from 36.8 last month and 37% from 2016.

 

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September 11, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 376

Grains Mostly Directionless to Start the Week

USDA Releases the Quarterly Stocks Report Tomorrow

Grains were mostly directionless to start the week with corn down 1, soybeans up 1 and Chicago wheat giving up 4.

 

Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 352,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2017/2018 marketing year.

 

Despite a drop in U.S. wheat production this year, a record Russian harvest and large crop in Ukraine are expected to keep international markets well supplied this year. In addition, Egypt is said to be considering rejection of a French wheat cargo due to the presence of poppy seeds which lends more uncertainty about the world’s #1 wheat importer.

 

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Tomorrow brings new data from USDA with the release of the Quarterly Stocks report and USDA’s WASDE Report. For corn, traders look for a 168.2 bushel yield as compared to August of 169.5 while soybeans are pegged at 48.8 vs USDA at 49.4. Traders also look for a slight drop in US new-crop carry-out numbers with corn expected to 2,180 MB from USDA’s August projection of 2,273 while soybeans dip to 442 MB from USDA’s August estimate of 475 MB.

The weather forecast has mostly dry weather for the dominant grain areas for the next week. This could reduce chances for late rains to add esp to the US soybean yield. The 11-16 day forecast has no cold air threats with close to average temps for the Plains, Midwest, and Delta. Precip looks to run near average in the Midwest and Delta and below average in the Plains.

 

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September 07, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 365

Export Sales to be Released Tomorrow Due To Holiday

Grains Were Mixed in the Overnight Session

In the overnight session the grains were mixed with December corn down 1 ¼ cents, November soybeans up 2 cents and December Chicago wheat down 1 ¾ cents. There was spotty showers over the last day in Western Michigan, Indiana, Eastern Wisconsin and Northwest Ohio. The shorter term 1-5 day forecast will be dry with precipitation in the Western grain belt expected in the 6-10 day forecast. The 6-10 day weather temperature is expected to remain cooler than normal, but the risk of an early freeze is still unlikely over the next two weeks.    

 

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This morning Reuters reported that the EU is expecting to lower Tariffs on Argentina Biodiesel imports by late September. This news follows the announcement in August that the U.S. will increase Tariffs on Argentine Biodiesel and that the countervailing duties could be as much as 64.17 percent.

 

On Wednesday, Linn & Associates pegged the domestic corn crop at 13.765 billion bushels with a yield of 165.8 bpa and harvested area of 83 million acres. Their soybean estimate was for 4.423 billion bushels with a 49.3 bpa yield estimate. Both estimates fall below the August WASDE report which pegged corn at 169.5 bpa and soybean yield at 49.4 bpa. The September WASDE report will be released at 11 AM CST on Tuesday September 12th.

Due to the holiday this week, export sales have been pushed back a day and will be released tomorrow. EIA ethanol production which will wrap up the 2016-17 marketing year will be released later today.  

 

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September 06, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 458

Hurricane Harvey Impact

Crop Conditions Reported Yesterday

In the overnight session the grains have traded lower with December corn down 1 ¼ cents, November soybeans down ½ cents and December Chicago wheat down 1 ½ cents. Corn continues to struggle against the resistance level of around $3.58 which was last years low for the contract.   

 

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Crop conditions were reported within analyst expectations after the market closed yesterday. Corn declined by a percentage point to 61 percent good to excellent compared to expectations of holding steady. Soybean conditions were unchanged at 61 percent good to excellent. The U.S spring wheat is 89 percent harvested compared to a five year average of 78 percent by this week.

 

On Tuesday, Brazil’s Agroconsult reported their latest 2017-18 crop estimates. Brazil’s soy crop is estimated at 111.1 million metric tons which is 4 percent below last years record. Agroconsult estimated their first corn crop at 26.1 million metric tons which was 14 percent below 2016-17 levels.  

 

The Stocks of Principal Field Crops Report was released this morning by Statistics Canada which showed Canadian grain stocks as of July 31st. According to the report wheat stocks were 6.9 million metric tons which was up 32.6 percent from last year. Durum wheat stocks were up 69.4 percent from last year at 1.9 million metric tons. Canola stocks however were 1.3 million metric tons which was a 35.5 percent decline from last year.       

Hurricane Harvey’s impact on wheat export out of Texas continues to linger after flooded railroad tracks and closed ports stopped all movement of wheat last week. Hurricane Irma is now on track to hit Florida by the weekend and has been strengthening with winds up to 185 miles per hour.  

 

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August 30, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 426

Grains Mostly Unchanged in the Overnight Session

Exporters sell 131,000 MT of Soybeans for delivery to china during the 2017/2018 marketing year. USDA

In the overnight session the grains were mostly unchanged with December corn unchanged, November soybeans unchanged and December Chicago wheat up 2 ¾ cents. The weather forecast provides very little moisture over the next two weeks and cooler temperatures are expected to enter the Midwest by September 5th. Opportunities for precipitation look to be limited mostly to the Delta, eastern Grain-belt and Ohio river valley region in the 1-5 day forecast.    

 

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The grains have come under pressure following the Pro Farmer crop tour as traders became less concerned that the USDA would revise production lower. The grains could be facing further pressure from the cash market this week as unpriced DP cash grain contracts for old crop corn and soybeans will need to be set by Thursday. The crop marketing year will begin September 1st for corn and soybeans.  

 

Exporters sell 131,000 MT of Soybeans for delivery to China during the 2017/2018 marketing year. USDA

 

In the wheat tender that closed Tuesday, Egypt’s grain buyer GASC announced it bought 295,000 metric tons of wheat primarily sourced from Russia with 60,000 metric tons sourced from Ukraine.

On the domestic front, 226,000 metric tons of corn was sold to Mexico for delivery during the 2017/18 marketing year and 198,000 metric tons of soybeans were sold to China for delivery in the 2017/18 marketing year.  


 

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August 28, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 366

Crop Tour Results Released

Crop Progress Report Out Later Today

The Pro Farmer crop tour announced their official crop estimates on Friday after walking fields across Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska and South Dakota. Both corn and soybean estimates came in below the latest USDA production forecasts which triggered some buying in the early night session Sunday evening. However, the gains evaporated by morning leaving December Corn down ¾ of a cent, November Soybeans up a 2 ¾ and December Chicago Wheat down 2 ¾ cents this AM.

 

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The Pro Farmer U.S corn production estimate was 13.953 billion bushels with an average yield of 167.1 bpa. This is below the August USDA estimate of 169.5 bpa and 14.153 billion bushels of total corn production. The tour estimated soybean production at 4.331 billion bushels with an average yield of 48.5 bpa. The August WASDE estimate pegged soybean production at 4.381 billion bushels and 49.4 bpa.

 

According to the latest commitment of traders report, non-commercial traders, a category that includes large speculators increased their net short for corn, soybeans and SRW wheat. The net short position for corn increased by -47,041 to -81,729. The net short position for soybeans grew by -9,138 to -56,122 and the SRW wheat net short position increased -21,488 to -96,112.  

 

A Reuters poll of nine analysts indicate that brazilian soy farmers may increase their planted area for the 2017-18 crop. The average analyst guess shows brazilian acreage increasing by 2 percent from last year to 85.7 million acres with a total production of 110.6 million metric tons. Analysts are expecting an increase to be mainly in the Parana state.


 

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August 25, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 417

Pro Farmer Corn and Soy Crop Tour Results Out Later Today

World Stocks Climb Higher on Friday

US soybeans edged lower on Friday, although the oilseed was poised to record its first weekly gain in more than a month as strong export demand provided support.

 

Corn eased, with the grain on course to finish the week down 3 percent, its fifth consecutive weekly fall as ample global supplies pushed prices to a near five-month low on Thursday. Iowa corn yields are projected to fall about 4.5 percent from last year’s bumper crop, crop scouts said on their annual tour this week. Farm Journal’s Pro Farmer newsletter is expected to release their US Corn and Soy Production estimates today at 1:30 p.m. CST.  

 

Wheat set for sixth weekly fall in past seven weeks.

 

Exporters sell 132,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2017/2018 marketing year. Exporters sell 105,500 MT of soybean cake and meal for delivery to Thailand during the 2017/2018 marketing year. - USDA

 

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World stocks climbed toward their best week in six on Friday, as a near three-year high in emerging market shares and a roaring rally in metals bolstered the year’s global bull run. Moves were mainly small ahead of speeches later by Fed Reserve and European Central bank heads Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi at one of the highlights of central banking calendar, the Jackson Hole, WY symposium.

Hurricane Harvey intensified early on Friday into potentially the biggest hurricane to hit the US mainland in more than a decade, as authorities warned locals to shelter from what could be life-threatening winds and floods.  Harvey is set to make landfall late Friday or early Saturday on the central Texas coast where Corpus Christi and Houston are home to some of the biggest US refineries. Oil and gas operations have already been affected and gasoline prices have spiked.

 

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August 24, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 401

Midwest Crop Tour Estimates Are In

Corn Prices Up for the First Time in Four Sessions

US soybean futures rose 0.5 percent on Thursday on expectations of higher demand from the bio-diesel sector while corn edged higher after a widely watched tour reported lower yield estimates in key producing regions. Wheat futures were also firm on strong demand but new signs of a hefty Russian harvest capped gains.

 

The uptick in support for corn came as the Farm Journal Midwest Crop Tour said Illinois corn yields are projected to fall about 6.6 percent from last year’s near-record crop after surveying 205 fields across the No. 2 corn-producing state.  Corn yield potential and soybean pod counts were also lower from a year ago and below the three-year average across western Iowa, with the crops showing signs of stress from dryness during June and July, scouts on the annual tour found on Wednesday.

 

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Farm Journal Midwest Crop Tour Estimates:

 

  • Illinois Average Corn Yield at 180.72 bushels per acre; down from 193.50 last year
  • Illinois Average Soybean Pod Count at 1,230.77 in 3-By-3 foot area, down from 1,318.09 last year.
  • Corn Yield in Iowa Crop District 1 at 178.67 bushels per acre versus 186.82 a year ago.
  • Corn Yield in Iowa Crop District 4 at 179.36 bushels per acre versus 182.65 a year ago.
  • Corn Yield in Iowa Crop District 7 at 185.65 bushels per acre versus 191.87 a year ago.
  • Iowa District 1 Average Soybean Pod Count at 986.49 in 3-By-3 Foot area versus 1,226.21 a year ago.
  • Iowa District 4 Average Soybean Pod Count at 1,158.06 in 3-By-3 Foot area versus 1,265.39 a year ago.
  • Iowa District 7 Average Soybean Pod Count at 1,133.76 in 3-By-3 Foot area versus 1,380.97 a year ago.

 

Net sales for wheat in marketing year 2017/2018 were down 39 percent from the previous week and 11 percent from the prior 4-week average. Net sales for 2016/2017 corn were up 64 percent from the previous week and 68 percent from the prior 4-week average. Net sales reductions for soybeans of 400,300 MT for 2016/2017; a marketing year low, were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.

 

Weekly Export Sales-

 

Actual

Estimated

Wheat

386

300-600

Corn - OC

102

50-250

Corn - NC

423

400-700

Soybeans - OC

-400

250-450

Soybeans - NC

2008

400-600


 

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August 23, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 283

Day Two Crop Tour Results Are In

Grains Trade Slightly Higher in the Overnight

In the overnight session the grains are trading slightly higher on Pro Farmer Day two results and an announcement of countervailing duties on Argentine and Indonesian bio-diesel. This morning December corn is up a 2 ¼ cents, November soybeans have gained 8 ½ cents and December Chicago Wheat is up 3 cents.

 

The Department of Commerce announced yesterday that it would impose larger than expected countervailing duties on Argentine and Indonesian bio-diesel imports after they ruled they were both subsidized. The Bio-diesel import duties will be 50-64 percent for Argentina and 41-68 percent for Indonesia.

 

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Day two of the crop tour covered Nebraska and Indiana both of which showed slightly weaker soybean counts from last year. In their evening report, Pro Farmer announced their Nebraska corn yield estimate was 165.42 bpa, which was up 6.82 bpa from last year and above the three year average of 158.60 bpa. Nebraska soybeans had an estimated pod count of 1,131.02, which was down 92.05 pods from last year and below the three year average of 1,182.12. Indiana corn yield estimates were forecast at 171.23 bpa down 2.19 bushels from last year but above the three year average of 167.13 bpa. Indiana soybean pod count was 1,168.78 which was down roughly 10 pods from last year but above the three year moving average of 1164.09.

The forecast shows there is the chance of precipitation by the middle of next week to help relieve the driest soybean areas throughout the Midwest. Rains are expected again in the 11-15 day forecast which will be beneficial for the crops. The latest weather models show no early frost threats over the next two weeks.  

 

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August 22, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 454

Crop Tour Scouts Release First Day Results

Grains were Mixed in the Overnight Session

In the overnight session the grains were mixed with December corn down ¼ penny, November soybeans up 1 ¼ cents and December Wheat down ½ cent. Traders will be watching reports from the crop tour, where any suggestion that yields are not in line with the latest WASDE forecast will most likely cause market jitters.

 

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Recent rains are helping to limit the driest spots to only 15 percent off the Midwest corn and soybean area. The 6-10 day weather models continue to show cooler than normal temperatures throughout the majority of the Central and Eastern U.S which should help corn filling. At this point the frost risk over the next two weeks remains very low.  

 

Crop conditions were reported yesterday and were in line with analyst expectations. U.S soybeans rated good-to-excellent increased a percentage point to 60. Corn conditions held steady this week at 62 percent good-to-excellent and spring wheat condition improved by a percentage point to 34.  

 

After the first day of the crop tour scouts announced that corn yield potential in south eastern South Dakota was below average and soybean pod counts were low as well. This shouldn’t come as a shock to the market considering the dry hot weather that area has seen throughout the growing season.  The tour pegged South Dakota corn yield at 147.97 bushels per acre, down from 149.78 bushels a year ago and down 8.17 bpa from the three year moving average. Soybean pod counts were at 899.56 in a 3 by 3 foot square which is down from the three year average of 1,027.80. On the eastern leg of the tour, Pro Farmer pegged Ohio yield estimate was 164.62 bpa up from 148.96 bpa last year. The tour estimated the number of soybean pods counted in the 3 by 3 foot square was 1,107.01 pods, slightly below the three year average of 1,174.24 pods.  

The Iranian animal feed importer SLAL issued tenders to purchase 200,000 metric tons of feed Barley and 200,000 metric tons of corn this morning. Japan also issued a regular tender to purchase 133,791 metric tons of feed-quality wheat from the U.S or Canada.


 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

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More Articles

Weekly Cash Comments

September 15, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew

Grain basis was mixed throughout the country as the convergence of old-crop/new-crop marketing seasons begins to cause some shifting patterns in basis. On the week, US average corn basis was fractionally higher while soybeans lost 3 cents a bushel.

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