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October/November 2014 Issue
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October 23, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 112

Crops Rally But Will They Hold?

Soybeans rose sharply to close off the day. Tune in to hear Kevin and Cody discuss export sales and if the stronger prices will hold.

October 23, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 57

Big Export Sales Hit Soybean Market

USDA reports 2,166,800 tonnes of soybeans sold - double trade expectations.

Corn and wheat futures are unchanged while soybeans are trading 3 cents higher coming out of the overnight session.

 

This morning’s export sales report showed continued strong demand for U.S. soybeans. The USDA reported 2,166,800 tonnes sold for the current marketing year, with China accounting for 80% of export business this week. This sales total was over double the highest trade expectation coming into today’s report. We continue to see soybean basis out of the gulf edge higher, increasing roughly 10 cents in the last 5 days. Corn sales for the week were at the high end of expectations with with 1,031,200 tonnes reported sold. Wheat sales missed the mark with just 299,400 tonnes sold.

 

Brazil is expected to receive rain across their grain belt today and into the weekend, easing dryness concerns for the key growing state of Mato Grasso. Dry conditions have hampered planting across the country with Mato Grasso receiving 10 centimeters less rain that normal during the last month. Soybean bulls have pointed to this story as helping soybeans in the near term. A close above $9.67 on the November 2014 soybean contract would indicate that this run might still have gas in the tank from a technical perspective. First notice day for the November contract is Friday, October 31st.

 

Harvest weather continues to look favorable for the majority of the U.S. grain belt. Most areas will be receiving above average temperatures and below average precipitation through the weekend.

October 22, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 174

Volatile Day in Chicago

Corn and Soybeans had a volatile day in Chicago on a Wednesday. Early in the trade session strength was observed across the sector but turned south at mid session and closed near lows

Volatile Day in Chicago
October 22, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 130

Grains Continue Higher in the Overnight

In the overnight session corn improved 2 cents, soybeans increased 12 ¼ cents and Chicago wheat increased 3 ¾ cents.

EXPORTERS SELL 419,000 TONNES U.S. SOYBEANS TO CHINA AND 113,000 T SOYBEANS TO UNKNOWN, ALL FOR 2014/15.

 

Soybeans surged another 12 cents higher in the overnight on very light news. A close above 972 ½ on the November 14 contract would be a strong technical signal that October’s price rally may have more gas in the tank. Bulls will point to strong export inspections and basis levels at the Gulf that have risen in the last 4 days for December delivered soybeans. The long term fundamentals of this market continue to point to lower prices when taking into account stocks/use for 2014/15 and the production outlook for South America. First notice day for November 14 futures is Friday, October 31st. If you need help rolling to January futures please contact our office.

 

This morning the Ukrainian Agricultural Ministry announced the country may export 11.76 million metric tons of wheat this marketing year compared to 9.2 exported last year. This year the countries wheat harvest increased 6.3% due to a higher number of planted acres and better yield. Currently the USDA has Ukrainian wheat exports pegged at 10 million metric tons in the October WASDE report which was unchanged from the previous report in September.

 

Over the last few days Chicago wheat and Kansas City wheat have been consolidating right around their 50 day moving averages which have acted as resistance. As more time passes around these levels the potency of the resistance will fade. If prices break out and move another leg higher, be cautious as we move right into the $6.20 resistance in Kansas City Wheat and the $5.42 resistance in Chicago wheat. 

October 21, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 161
October 21, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 36

Dryness Concerns in Brazil

There has been concerns of dryness in Mato Grasso as producers begin planting.

In the overnight session corn was unchanged, soybeans traded 5 1/4 cents higher and wheat improved 2 1/2 cents. 
 

Brazil’s key growing state of Mato Grasso is seeing dryer than normal planting conditions as Brazilian producers ramp up planting. Over the last thirty days the majority of Mato Grasso is 3 ½ or more inches behind normal rain fall totals. Weather models are projecting a wet week for central Brazil, with an inch of precipitation possible across the majority of key growing areas. This should work to neutralize dryness concerns in the short run for central Brazil.  

 

Egypt’s state grain buyer GASC is expected to announce the result of their most recent tender today. Traders indicate that French, Russian, and Romanian wheat was offered with no offers from the United States. Staying on the wheat front, Syrian officials have announced they will import up to 1 million tonnes of wheat this marketing year as the country’s civil war has cut domestic production in half. Yesterday’s export inspections report showed that 481 thousand tonnes of U.S. wheat was inspected for export last week, right in line with trade expectations.


Crop progress was released last night which showed that harvest is now complete for 31% percent of corn area which was right around analyst expectations. This years pace lags the five year average of 53% percent by this time of the year. Last week the amount of harvested acres in the U.S jumped only 7 percent. 
Soybean harvest progress also came in on pace with expectations, reporting 53% harvested compared to a five year average of 66%. Over the last week harvested acreage improved by 13 percent.  
 
Weather throughout the grain belt should be clear today with some slight showers coming into the picture in the western grain belt on Wednesday. Any delays due to the precipitation should be minor. Friday should usher in more precipitation before the forecast clears up over the weekend.

October 17, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 245

Soybeans Take a Technical Break

Today we discuss the soybean technical environment and the morning's export sales report. Barge rates have backed off and we see river bids strengthen for soybeans and corn across the mid-west.

October 16, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 288

Grains Bounce on Light News

Grains took another bounce higher today as fundamental news remains light. Today we discuss the technical outlook and ethanol production on GrainTV.

October 15, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 310
October 14, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 326

Grains Move Another Leg Higher

Corn and soybeans moved another leg higher today. Today we discuss the move and what prices may offer resistance to further gains. Crop progress was released after the closing bell, showing corn and soybean pace still lagging.

Grains Move Another Leg Higher

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More Articles

Big Export Sales Hit Soybean Market

October 23, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills

Corn and wheat futures are unchanged while soybeans are trading 3 cents higher coming out of the overnight session.

 

This morning’s export sales report showed continued strong demand for U.S. soybeans. The USDA reported 2,166,800 tonnes sold for the current marketing year, with China...

[Read More]

Grains Continue Higher in the Overnight

October 22, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills

EXPORTERS SELL 419,000 TONNES U.S. SOYBEANS TO CHINA AND 113,000 T SOYBEANS TO UNKNOWN, ALL FOR 2014/15.

 

Soybeans surged another 12 cents higher in the overnight on very light news. A close above 972 ½ on the November 14 contract would be a strong technical signal that October’s price...

[Read More]

Dryness Concerns in Brazil

October 21, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills

In the overnight session corn was unchanged, soybeans traded 5 1/4 cents higher and wheat improved 2 1/2 cents. 

 

Brazil’s key growing state of Mato Grasso is seeing dryer than normal planting conditions as Brazilian producers ramp up planting. Over the last thirty days the majority of...

[Read More]