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September 24, 2018 | Monday Mycotoxin And Crop Report | | Views: 133

Monday Mycotoxin & Crop Report for September 24

This week features new reports of aflatoxin, fumonisin and DON in corn; devastation in the Carolinas wreaked by Hurricane Florence; and a mycotoxin highlight from the University of Arizona’s Dr. Duarte Diaz.

Monday Mycotoxin & Crop Report for September 24

This week features new reports of aflatoxin, fumonisin and DON in corn; devastation in the Carolinas wreaked by Hurricane Florence; and a mycotoxin highlight from the University of Arizona’s Dr. Duarte Diaz.

 

September 24, 2018 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 91

Latest Round of Chinese and American Tariffs in Effect Today

Managed money continues to sell corn and wheat

Latest Round of Chinese and American Tariffs in Effect Today

Latest Round Of Chinese and American Tariffs In Effect Today

Last week, President Trump announced that he would be enacting another tariff on China for $200 billion worth of goods. China responded with tariffs of their own on $60 billion worth of American goods. Both sides saw their tariffs go into effect this morning. China has also decided to not send Vice Premier Liu He to Washington D.C. for talks with his American counterparties. China believes that the U.S. is being insincere during negotiations and wishes to engage in talks “based on mutual respect and equality." Previously, both the U.S. and China had enacted tariffs on $50 billion worth of products. Last week, President Trump stated if China were to retaliate against his latest tariffs, he would issue another tariff on $267 billion worth of goods, effectively targeting all Chinese imports.

Export Sales Announcement

Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 162,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2018/2019 marketing year.

Managed Money Continues to Sell Corn, Wheat, Hold Steady On Soybeans

For the week ending on Sep 18, managed money added to their net short position in corn by 77,806 to 141,276 contracts. This week would mark the largest volume of selling since March and the most bearish since January. Money managers saw their net short position for soybeans increase only slightly, adding 1,544 to total 69,813 contracts. The overall outlook for soybeans remains bearish, with an expected yield of 52.8 bpa and ending stocks of 845 million bushels looming.  Managed money officially became net short for Chicago SRW, falling by 19,794 to 1,379 contracts. Funds remain net long for KC HRW but cut their position by 6,455 to 37,084 contracts.

Eastern Iowa, Western Illinois Have More Rain In Forecast, Flooding Threats Remain

Areas along the Mississippi River in E Iowa and W Illinois continue be under flood watches and warnings as tributaries have swollen past their banks.

Over the past week, nearly six times the normal precipitation has fallen over this area and thunderstorms with a chance of large hail are forecast for Tuesday, according to the National Weather Service. Areas of S Ohio, S Indiana, Kentucky, and Tennessee are expecting thunderstorms to bring as much as 5 inches of rain from today through Wednesday.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. FBN BR LLC (NFA ID: 0508695)

September 21, 2018 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 189

NAFTA Deal by End of the Month Remains Distant

Following meetings between Canadian and U.S. trade officials, the two sides are far from a deal

NAFTA Deal by End of the Month Remains Distant

NAFTA Deal By End of Month Remains Distant

After agreeing to update the NAFTA agreement between the U.S. and Mexico, President Trump gave Canada until the end of September to negotiate and sign off on a trilateral deal. Following meetings between Canadian and U.S. trade officials, it appears the two sides are far from a deal. Canada remains insistent on removing any threat of U.S. tariffs on Canadian automobiles, something that President Trump wishes to keep. Canada’s largest private sector union spoke yesterday that ensuring that car tariffs are off the table is a dealbreaker for the Canadians.

Export Sales Announcements

Export sales of 121,700 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations for delivery during the 2018/2019 marketing year; and, Export sales of 100,000 metric tons of soybean cake and meal for delivery to unknown destinations for delivery during the 2018/2019 marketing year.

Soybeans Rally Off 10-Year Low On Strong Export Demand, Little Producer Selling

Yesterday, Nov soybeans gained 20.25 cents during the trading session to settle at $8.5025. The contract is up 1.6% on the week, making this the largest weekly increase in five weeks. The USDA reported export sales for soybeans at 917,600 MT, well above trade expectations. US origin beans remain very attractive for countries like the Netherlands and Argentina to import to crush into meal and oil or to export again to China. Nov beans gave up some ground in the overnight session, dropping around 7 cents.

Soybean Planting in Brazil Off to a Good Start, Weather Remains Favorable

Planting for soybeans in the Brazilian state of Parana are off to the fastest start in five years, pegged at 9% complete, in comparison to only 1% this time last year. The earliest planted soybeans could be harvested as early as the first week of January, if not sooner, and will largely be destined for export to China, where strong premiums for the oilseed exist. Furthermore, early planted soybeans in turn mean an early planting for second crop corn, or safrinha, which represents nearly ⅔ of Brazilian corn production. Last year’s safrinha crop saw delayed planting and poor growing conditions due to drought.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. FBN BR LLC (NFA ID: 0508695)

September 20, 2018 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 253

U.S. Is Now Top Supplier of Soybeans to Europe

U.S. surpasses Brazil following a July trade deal negotiated by Trump with leaders from EU

U.S. Is Now Top Supplier of Soybeans to Europe

U.S. Is Now Top Supplier of Soybeans to Europe

Following a trade deal negotiated by President Trump with leaders from the EU in July, the United States is now the #1 supplier of soybeans to Europe, surpassing Brazil. In the 12 weeks since the deal was signed, US origin beans represent 52% of all soybeans imported to the EU. Imports to the EU in this time period were up 133% from the previous year. The deal between the EU and the US included more soybean imports by the Europeans in exchange for European cars to be free from US tariffs.

Ethanol Production Increases, Stocks Decline; Green Plains to Cut Production By 20%

For the week ending on Sep 14, production of ethanol rose to 1.051 million barrels per day, up 31,000 barrels from last week which was a five-month low. Stockpiles of the biofuel were reported to have drawn down to 22.746 million barrels, down 148,000 barrels from the previous week. Green Plains, one of the largest producers of ethanol in the US, announced yesterday that they will be idling their two of their plants in Iowa, Superior and Lakota, and their Fairmont, MN plant will run at 50%. Annually, these 3 plants represent 1.48 billion gallons of production, 20% of Green Plains’ total output. Weak margins and the ongoing trade war with China were the cited reasons for the decision.

Export Sales Announcements

Export sales of 148,590 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2018/2019 marketing year.

Export sales of 11,430 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2019/2020 marketing year.

Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Exports Rise on Renewed Bargain Buying

Sales of new crop corn were reported at 1,383,700 MT for the week of Sep 7-13. This nearly doubles last week’s number of 774,000 MT. Countries reporting the largest purchases were Mexico, South Korea, Peru, and Japan.

New crop soybean sales were up nearly 33% from the previous week at 917,600 MT. Top buyers were Mexico, Indonesia, and Spain. Wheat sales as reported by the USDA were 468,400 MT, up 21% from last week and up 32% from the 4 week average. The biggest buyers were the Philippines, Indonesia, and Vietnam.  

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. FBN BR LLC (NFA ID: 0508695)

September 19, 2018 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 147

China Responds to Trump’s Tariffs

Flash flood warnings are in place across Northern Midwest

China Responds to Trump's Tariffs

China Responds To Trump’s Tariffs With $60 Billion Tariffs 

Following Monday’s announcement by President Trump to implement a 10% tariff on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, China has decided to add $60 billion worth of US goods to theis list for import tariffs. China’s new tariffs will begin at either 5% or 10% and will include goods such as aircraft, frozen vegetables, and liquified natural gas. Both these tariffs and President Trump’s latest round will go in effect Sep 24. President Trump stated Monday that if China were to retaliate against his newest tariffs in any way, he would escalate to “phase three” and add on an additional $267 billion worth of tariffs, notably targeting cell phones, among other goods.

Soybean Planting Has Begun In Brazil, Met With Good Weather

Planting for both corn and soybeans is underway in Brazil, as soil moisture is seen as adequate. This time last year saw significant planting delays due to drought in much of the Brazilian growing area. Some corn planting has also been reported in Argentina. Sep 15 marks the date for when soybean planting can begin in Brazil as the government seeks to reduce the spread of soy rust. So far, the 2nd largest soy producing state, Parana, is 9% planted, which is the fastest start in 5 years. Nationally, Brazil is 37% planted for first crop corn, compared to 12% last year.

Flash Flood Warnings And Watches Are In Place Across Northern Midwest

Parts of NE Iowa, SE Minnesota, and SW Wisconsin are under flash flood watches and warnings as heavy rains this week have soaked the area. More rain and high winds are expected in the area today into the evening, with a chance for quarter-sized hail. The Rock River has been reported to have overflowed past its banks at 10.1 feet, beyond the 10 foot flood stage. The Fox River is also swollen with recent rain. Several inches of rain are also forecast through the end of the week in central Kansas and NE Nebraska.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. FBN BR LLC (NFA ID: 0508695)

September 19, 2018 | Coach’s Corner | | Views: 271

Coaching Your Customer

In confusing situations, here's how to guide your customers to the right solutions

Coaching Your Customer

The discussion had gone on for hours. We looked at seed varieties, multiple nitrogen strategies and several different herbicide programs on this sales call.

I was riding along with an agronomist this past year as he met with several customers in the January planning timeframe. This wasn’t just a monthly visit or check-in sales call. This was the annual planning session to determine how this producer would farm for the next growing season. Seed varieties, fertilizer choices and herbicide programs would be selected by the end of this discussion.

After several hours, you could just see this producer was struggling with what to do. There were so many choices with so many possibilities in the upcoming growing season: hot, dry, wet, cool, etc. As we came to key decisions in the sales process, the producer would turn to the agronomist and ask, “What do you think is best?”

Riding with grain buyers, I see similar situations. The decision to sell grain can be a very difficult one for producers. Trying to make a profit, sell at the high, locking in futures and basis. The choices can seem endless. The most common question a grain buyer is asked is, “What are the markets going to do?” The second most common question is, “When do you think I should sell?”

In these complex or confusing situations, you can use your coaching skills to help move your customer through their choices. Coaching is different than advising or consulting. It’s more about getting a person to understand where they are, where they want to go and how to get there. I like to compare it to the GPS you use every day on your phone. You are here. You want to go there and here are several routes.

Below are a few best practices you can implement when coaching a customer.

Best practices for coaching your customer

  1. Give them the most common path:
    One of the great values you bring to a customer is that you go farm to farm to farm and you know what “most” producers do. In the face of complexity, it’s comforting to know what others are doing. It’s like polling the audience on the game show “Who wants to be a millionaire”. Your confused customer is looking for you to provide clarity and help in the decision. While he doesn’t have to follow everyone else, it’s helpful to know what most people are doing. This can give him a base to work from. Then, he can either choose the most common path or a path of his own.
  2. Give them, “If it was me, here’s what I would do”
    If you have been in sales long enough, eventually you will be faced with the following question by your customer, “What would you do?” This is a great moment of truth and trust when it happens. Your customer values your expertise and your relationship enough to ask for your opinion. True, he doesn’t have to follow it and may feel that you are biased since you are a salesperson. However, how you handle the question can be a great step forward for you and your customer. First and foremost, you have to take yourself out of the sales role as much as possible and place yourself in the customer’s shoes. If you are not a farmer or never made these types of decisions, then let him know that. Then, proceed to give him your best estimate as to what you would do. The last and sometimes most important part of your answer is “Why”. After you explain “what” you would do, explain why. This tells your customer your level of understanding of his situation. It also helps show you aren’t just recommending your highest priced or highest margin products.
  3. Patience and understanding
    This can be a tough area. Coaching is not telling and there is no guarantee the customer will follow your advice/guidance. If you aren’t a farmer or dairyman nor have you made these types of decisions for yourself, it’s tough to understand how torn this customer truly is. These are big decisions and you need to let them think about your coaching discussion. It may not sink in on this visit. Often, a customer will tell me they had been thinking about the discussion we had months earlier. Your success in coaching will depend on the level of trust you have in the relationship. Two critical components of trust are technical expertise and self-versus-others orientation. Your customer is answering the following two questions when considering your advice/coaching, “Do you know what you are talking about?” and, “Are you out for my best interest or your own?” The answers to these questions determine how the coaching discussion will go and whether your customer will trust you.

On your next sales call, think about your customer’s situation. Are you working through a simple or complex sales/decision process?  Has your customer made these types of decisions many times before or is it a new process? Are they high risk decisions or low risk decisions? If you answered, complex, high risk and new, then consider a coaching strategy to help move your customer through the decision-making process of the sale.

September 18, 2018 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 211

Corn Harvest Lags Slightly Behind Expectations

USDA Crop Progress report shows U.S. corn crop is 54% mature and harvest is 9% complete

Corn Harvest Lags Slightly Behind Expectations

Corn Harvest Lags Slightly Behind Expectations, Soybeans Pick Up Pace

The USDA Crop Progress report showed that the US corn crop is 54% mature and that harvest is 9% complete. These numbers are both well above the 5 year average but traders expected corn harvest to be 10% complete. Illinois and Indiana are making very good harvest progress at this point. Soybean harvest was pegged 1% higher than expectations at 6% complete for the U.S. crop. Areas of the northern Midwest like the Dakotas and Minnesota are showing an above average pace of harvest so far. The USDA also reported that spring wheat is 97% harvested, compared to 92% last week.

 

President Trump Announces New Round Of $200 Billion Tariffs on China

On Monday, President Trump stated that following careful deliberation and listening to public comments, he has decided to impose another round of tariffs, this time on $200 billion worth of Chinese products. These new tariffs will go into effect on Monday, Sep 24, and will begin at a 10% duty. On Jan 1, the rates will increase to 25%. The goods targeted are industrial chemicals, plastics, and certain electronics components. President Trump also said that should China retaliate in any way, particularly against farmers, he would initiate “phase 3” and tack on an additional tariff of $267 billion worth of Chinese goods, including cell phones.

 

Hot, Wet Weather in Forecast for Iowa, Kansas; Heavy Rains in Northern Midwest

Across Kansas and Iowa, temps are expected to be in the low 90s and humid, followed by thunderstorms later on tonight and into tomorrow. There may be a chance for hail or severe winds. Rain is also expected along the Illinois-Iowa border, where harvest was beginning to make good progress.

Nearly 3-4 inches is forecast further north in S Minnesota, E South Dakota, and Wisconsin over the coming week.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. FBN BR LLC (NFA ID: 0508695)

September 17, 2018 | Monday Mycotoxin And Crop Report | | Views: 272

Monday Mycotoxin & Crop Report for September 17

Special report from Kansas State’s Dr. Cassie Jones on mycotoxin testing as a tool for FSMA compliance

Monday Mycotoxin & Crop Report for September 17

This week's Monday Mycotoxin and Crop Report from Neogen features a special report from Kansas State’s Dr. Cassie Jones on mycotoxin testing as a tool for FSMA compliance.

 

 

September 17, 2018 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 251

Heavy Rains Expected in the Northern Midwest

Over the next five days, nearly all of this region is forecast to see 5 inches of rain

Heavy Rains Expected in the Northern Midwest

Heavy Rains Expected In Northern Midwest, Eastern Corn Belt to See Showers from Tropical Storm Florence

Over the next 5 days, nearly all of Iowa and Wisconsin, S Minnesota, E South Dakota, and NE Nebraska are forecast to see nearly 5 inches of rain and temps in the mid 70s. Further to the south, a storm system is expected to cut across much of Kansas, totalling 3-4 inches of precipitation. As the remnants of Hurricane Florence move further inland, parts of E Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Kentucky can expect several inches of rain. North Carolina remains underwater, with most of the state’s counties under flash flood warnings and watches. Tornadoes are also forecast for central parts of North Carolina.

President Trump Could Announce New Tariffs on China Today

Senior officials in the Trump White House stated that President Trump is likely to announce the latest round of tariffs targeting $200 billion worth of Chinese goods as early as today. This comes alongside recent news that Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and Vice Premier Liu He are set to restart trade talks. The Wall Street Journal reports that this newest round of tariffs would be at a 10% rate, not 25% as previously speculated that the Trump Administration was considering. Products targeted by the US in this latest round are electronics, tires, chemicals, plastics, and seafood, among other consumer goods.

Export Sales Announcement

Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 241,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2018/2019 marketing year.

Managed Money is Selling Corn, Soy, and Wheat as Big Crop Gets Bigger

For the week ending on Sep 11, managed money increased their net short position in corn by 6,586 to 63,470 contracts, primarily driven by the USDA’s yield estimate increasing to 181.3 bpa. It is also estimated that funds sold 47,000 corn contracts on Wed Sep 12, marking the largest single day sell off for corn since June 21, 2016. Money managers also increased their net shorts for soybeans by 5,520 to 68,269 contracts as the USDA estimate ending stocks at 845 million bushels. Managed money cut their net long positions in Chicago SRW by 24,351 to 18,415 contracts and KC HRW by 11,715 to 43,539 contracts. Funds also turned bearish on MN HRS, establishing a net short position of 831 contracts, down 1,807 from the previous week.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. FBN BR LLC (NFA ID: 0508695)

September 14, 2018 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 232

African Swine Fever Outbreak Confirmed in Belgium

ASF has caused the death of several wild boar in Belgium near French border

African Swine Fever Outbreak Confirmed in Belgium

Trump Administration Extends Invitation for Trade Talks With China

US Secretary of the Treasury Steve Mnuchin has offered an invitation to Chinese trade officials to discuss trade between the two countries and seek a solution to the escalating Trade War. The invitation was directed towards Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, a trusted economic advisor to President Xi Jinping. Currently, the Trump Administration is finalizing the list of $200 billion of Chinese goods that will face 10-25% tariffs and will be enacted over the coming days. President Trump took to Twitter, saying that the US is under no pressure to meet with China and that it is in fact the Chinese that wish to broker a deal as quickly as possible.

African Swine Fever Outbreak Confirmed In Wild Boar In Belgium

African Swine Fever (ASF) has been reported to have caused the death of several wild boar in an area of Belgium near the French border. This marks the first confirmed case of the virus in Belgium since 1985. ASF was also recently confirmed in hog herds in Eastern Europe, most notably in Romania, where hundreds of thousands of hogs have been culled. Following the outbreak in Belgium, French authorities are taking additional precautions to quarantine hog farms and slaughter facilities. The EU is the world’s 2nd largest producer of pork and the largest exporter. Countries like Germany, Denmark, France, and Spain represent a majority of hog production. The spread of ASF from China to Europe has scientists concerned that the virus has “reached pandemic proportions”.

Hurricane Florence Hammers Carolinas as Storm Surge Grows

Hurricane Florence has made landfall in North Carolina, bringing 90 mph winds and up to 8 inches of rain this morning alone. The storm is slowing its progress inward over land, which has caused the storm surge to worsen, reaching 2 feet in some areas of North and South Carolina. The National Weather Service warns that winds may increase up to 110 mph and that the storm surge and flash flooding in low lying areas may make the situation on the ground “devastating to catastrophic”.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. FBN BR LLC (NFA ID: 0508695)

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