August 25, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 78

Day 3 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Projections

Grains were mixed in the overnight.

Grains were mixed overnight with Nov beans spending much of the night below $10 while corn and wheat were holding onto small gains going into the break.

 

Day 3 of ProThe annual Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour on Wednesday projected Illinois' corn yield potential sharply higher than last year but the estimates trailed USDA’s record-large forecast.
Scouts on the four-day tour predicted average corn yields in Illinois at 193.50 bushels per acre, up from 171.64 bpa last year and the three-year crop tour average of 179.69 bpa. The outlook was below USDA's Aug. 12 estimate of 200 bpa, which if realized would equal 2014's record average yields in the state. Soybean pod counts in a 3-by-3 foot area were calculated at a statewide average of 1,318.09, up both from 1,190.47 pods in 2015 and the three-year tour average of 1,201.87 pods.
 

In Western Iowa, Pro Farmer pegged the crop there at 187.5 vs 181.5 in 2015 and a 3-year average of 175.9. For soybeans, the pod count came in at 1,290 this year vs 1,263 last year and a 3-year average of 1,161.

 

The International Grains Council on Thursday raised its forecasts for both world wheat and corn production in the 2016/17 season.  The IGC projected world wheat production in 2016/17 at 743 MMT, up from a previous forecast of 735.  World corn production in 2016/17 was seen at 1.030 billion tonnes, up from a previous projection of 1.017 billion.

 

WEEKLY EXPORT SALES

 

                            OC-Act        OC-Exp     NC-Act           NC-Exp

Corn                            71       100-250       1,059       800-1,000

Soybeans                   115         50-200       1,939    1,100-1,300

Wheat                                                         379          400-600


 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)


 

August 24, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | | Views: 194
August 24, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 287

Day 2 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Results

Crude Oil is off nearly $1 a Barrel

Grains continued to weaken overnight and crude oil was off nearly $1 a barrel.

 

Day 2 of Pro Farmer’s crop tour were in fields in Nebraska and Indiana. The crop tour projected Indiana's corn yield at 173.42 bushels per acre, up both from last year's estimate of 142.94 bpa and the three-year crop tour average of 165.11 bpa. USDA said yields in the state would average 187 bpa, up from 150 bpa in 2015.  The crop tour does not estimate soybean yields but projected the amount of soybean pods in a 3-by-3-foot area at 1,178.41 pods, up from 1,093.08 pods last year and the three-year tour average of 1,166.34 pods. USDA estimated soybean yields at 55 bpa, up from 50 bpa in 2015.

 

The forecast for Nebraska was 158.60 for corn, below 165.16 in 2015. The soy pod count came in at 1,178 vs 1,093 last year.

 

Yesterday, Egypt’s GASC canceled its tender to buy wheat. GASC did not give a reason for the cancellation. Cairo-based traders said they were surprised by the decision to cancel after hours of negotiations with several suppliers who had presented offers to GASC.

 

In international pricing, the recent slide in the US wheat price and losses in the US dollar, combined with a move higher in Ukrainian prices has put the US in a better competitive position. Last month, Ukraine wheat prices were $17/MT lower than the US and today’s values are on par with each other.

 

Crude oil prices continued to slump this week. Industry data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed on Tuesday that U.S. crude inventories had risen by 4.5 million barrels in the week ending Aug. 19. Analysts had expected a 455,000-barrel fall. Official EIA data on inventories will be out later this morning, and are expected to show a modest dip, but that was before API data came in surprisingly large.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)


 

August 23, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 241
August 23, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 129

Grains Start the Day Weaker

Crude Oil Continues to Slide

Grains were weaker to start the day while crude prices continued to slide in overnight trade.

 

Pro Farmer’s crop tour concluded day 1 reporting estimates for OH & SD. Corn yields in Ohio were projected to come in roughly unchanged with last year and down from a three-year average after dry field conditions negatively impacted fields in parts of the state. Corn yields in Ohio are projected to be 148.96 bushels per acre, just above 148.37 bpa in 2015 and down from the three-year tour average of 167.37 bpa. USDA pegged Ohio yields at 163 bpa, up from 153 bpa in 2015. For soybeans, the tour estimated the amount of soybean pods in a 3-by-3-foot square in Ohio at an average 1,055.05 pods, down from 1,125.26 last year and the three-year average of 1,250.43 pods.

 

In South Dakota, corn yield was estimated at 149.78 bushels per acre, below the tour's three-year average of 160.13. A year ago, scouts on the tour calculated the average South Dakota corn yield at 165.94 bushels per acre. Soybean pod counts in a 3-by-3 foot area were pegged at a statewide average of 970.61. That compares with average pod counts of 1,054.98 in 2015 and the three-year average of 1,043.15.

 

In overnight news, Egypt’s GASC was tendering for wheat. The lowest offer came from Ukraine for $171 /MT. Stats Canada released new crop estimates, pegging the all wheat crop at 30.49 MMT, up from last month’s forecast and up 10% from last year. Anola output was estimated at 17.02 MMT, off 1.2% from last year

 

Crude oil prices continued their slide this morning, giving up 50 cents a barrel after yesterday's steep sell-off of a $1.70 a barrel.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

August 22, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 305
August 22, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 161

Grains were Lower to Start the Week

Crude oil prices fall on Monday

Grains were lower to start the week as were most of the outside commodity and equity markets.

 

The Pro Farmer crop tour gets underway today as two teams will traverse across the Midwest to come up with corn and soybean yield forecasts. This year, with USDA’s August forecast so much in question, the PF tour should take on added weight in helping the market determine a true value for yields.

 

This morning USDA announced the sale of 120,000 MT of new-crop sales to unknown destinations. That marks the 3rd trade day in a row of soybean deals announced by USDA.

 

In weather, rains return to the Midwest late Tue.-Thu., with the heaviest in C. & SW Iowa/N. Missouri/E. Kansas/far E. Nebraska. The 6-15 day shows rains in W. Midwest corn/soy and threaten pockets of excess rain (main risk in Iowa).

 

Crude oil prices fell Monday amid fading hope for a unilateral agreement on production cuts from major producers and as traders and money managers cashed in recent profits.The prospect of the OPEC agreeing with other major producers to cut or freeze production in September is now starting to fizzle out with most observers now convinced that there is little chance of a consensus being reached. Any tailwind this may have given to prices over the past week won't be there in the coming five days.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)


 

August 19, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 183

Weekly Cash Comments

Weekly Cash Commentary for week ending 08/19/2016

Grain basis was mostly lower to unchanged to close the week.

 

On average, corn was down one cent this week. Ethanol plants followed closely losing one and a half cents. With recent decreases in demand for gasoline and large production expectations it seems ethanol buyers are hesitant to pay a premium for corn. Corn along the river and in the gulf saw a drop in basis of one and a quarter cents.

 

Nationally soybean basis was down slightly, losing half a cent per bushel. Soybean basis along the river was the biggest loser this week losing almost four cents per bushel. Although strong world demand has added support to the futures market that support has yet to be seen in the cash market along the river. Crush facilities have seen signs of support gaining nearly one cent this week. Continued global demand for for soyoil is expected throughout the year.  

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

August 19, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 188

Beneficial Rains Across the Midwest

Grains were off in overnight trade

Grains were off in overnight trade with soybeans again losing double digits.

 

Soybeans slid for a second session on Friday as beneficial rain in the U.S. Midwest buoyed expectations of a record U.S. crop this fall. Recent rain in key U.S. growing areas has helped ease concerns about dryness in the Eastern Corn-belt.

Grain millers in Bangladesh are boosting their wheat purchases from Russia and Ukraine as cargoes from key exporter India fade due to a supply squeeze in that country. Bangladesh has booked about 800,000 tonnes of wheat from the Black Sea region for shipment between mid-July and October, up from around 550,000-600,000 tonnes in the same period last year, two trade sources said.

 

Germany’s Farmers' Association (DBV) said on Friday that the German 2016 winter wheat crop fell 13% on the year to 22.9 MMT. France also is suffering crop losses this year with forecasts there off 17%.

 

USDA’s Cattle on Feed Report will be released today at 2 pm CDT. Analysts expect cattle on feed as of Aug 1 at 101.4%, placements in July at 100.5% and marketings in July at 99.7%.

 

Crude oil prices were lower on Friday after gaining a $1.50 a barrel on Thursday to an eight-week high, capping a rally driven by speculation producers could agree to measures to support crude. Nigeria’s oil minister said on Thursday that while a cut in OPEC production is unlikely, there is hope a meeting of producers in Algeria next month could help shore up crude prices.However, analysts and traders warned the rally was overblown, especially since planned talks between the OPEC and other major producers like Russia to rein in on ballooning overproduction were unlikely to lead to a reduced supply overhang.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)


 

August 18, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | | Views: 207

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