African Swine Fever Continues to Spread
Despite efforts in South Korea, cases continue to be confirmed.
The virus also has spread to East Timor (Timor-Leste).
East Timor is north of Australia, but is one of the closer islands geographically.
There are concerns the virus will extend to Australia, but NO cases in Australia have been confirmed.
The U.S. also has run through scenarios if the virus appears in the states, but NO cases have been reported.
FBN’s Take On What It Means: African Swine Fever (ASF) continues to spread across Asia with countries trying to stay ahead of the disease by culling. The virus would have to move across the ocean to reach Australia, but concerns are present that the disease could reach there. If that were to occur, several countries could halt pork exports from Australia. The longer the virus remains active, the more likely the U.S. could get business. While concerning, the spread of the virus keeps opportunities present for U.S. pork producers.
Brazil Aggressively Selling New Crop Corn
Brazil plants two corn crops per year.
Summer corn is being planted now with winter corn plantings to follow soybean harvest, likely early in 2020.
Winter corn production accounts for around 70 percent of the total.
Producers there are aggressively selling new-crop corn due to favorable exchange rates and a recent firming of prices.
FBN’s Take On What It Means: Brazilian farmers are expected to expand total corn area for 2019/20. Producers there have forward sold about 25 percent of the second corn crop already, compared with less than 20 percent last year. FBN expects Brazil to remain an aggressive corn exporter keeping U.S. exports under pressure unless a weather problem develops.
The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. FBN BR LLC (NFA ID: 0508695)
