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July 28, 2020 | FBN Insights | Kevin McNew

Crop Conditions Much Better Than Expected

Temperatures and rainfall are forecast to be favorable across Midwest as crops advance into final stages of production

Crop Conditions Much Better Than Expected 

  • Corn crop conditions jumped to 72% good to excellent, higher than 69% last week and the 69-70% expected. 
  • Silking progress was 82% compared with 59% last week and 75% average.
  • Soybean crop conditions rose to 72% good to excellent from 69% last week, which was expected to remain steady.
  • Blooming is 76% complete compared with 72% average and setting pods is 43% versus 36% average.
  • Spring wheat conditions also beat expectations at 70% good to excellent, up from 68% last week.
  • Spring wheat harvest is just getting underway at 1% complete, just under the 3% average for this time.
  • Upland cotton crop conditions increased to 49% good to excellent from 44% last week.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Significant, widespread condition improvements were noted in most states. Iowa conditions down 3% in corn and beans was the only notable decline. Although Iowa was lower, the 77% good to excellent corn rating is still above the five year average of 75%. Temperatures and rainfall are forecast to be favorable across the Midwest as crops advance into the final stages of production, which will likely keep pressure on prices as focus returns to potentially very large supplies. 

Russian Wheat Crop Forecast Raised 

  • IKAR raised its projection of Russia’s wheat crop to 78.0 million tonnes from 76.5 million previously. 
  • Sovecon also indicated they are leaning toward increasing their crop forecast, which was last at 79.7 million tonnes.
  • Sovecon estimates Russian wheat exports in July will be 2.9 million tonnes, in line with last year’s shipments 3.0 million tonnes.
  • Russia’s last official estimate of the crop was 75.0 million tonnes, compared with last year’s crop at 74.5 million.
  • USDA last estimated the Russian crop at 76.5 million tonnes vs 73.6 million last year.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Analysts are increasing their crop estimates as harvest progresses, citing better than expected yields in some locations. This will allow for the seasonal increase in exports to begin, following minimal shipments in June. There are ideas that the Russian export program could be more aggressive in the first half of the marketing year as exporters try to avoid potential quotas, which could provide other origins opportunities for greater shipments later in the season. 

 

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