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June 26, 2020 | FBN Insights | Kevin McNew

Markets Steady Going Into July Option Expiration at Friday’s Close

Impact of the economic slowdown adds uncertainty to June crop report

Trade Expectations for Quarterly Grain Stocks 

  • USDA will release its report on grain stocks in all positions as of June 1, 2020 next Tuesday, June 30.
  • The average trade estimate for corn stocks  is 4,951 million bushels compared to 5,202 million last year.
  • Soybean stocks are seen at 1,392 million bushels versus 1,783 million last year.
  • The analysts’ average estimate pegs all wheat stocks at 980 million bushels, down from 1,080 million last year at this time.
  • FBN’s Take On What It Means For The Farmer: The stocks report usually takes a backseat to the acreage report released at the same time. However, the impact of the economic slowdown due to the coronavirus adds significant uncertainty to this report which could lead to surprises. As all wheat stocks are a look at old-crop, there is usually less difference between expectations and the actual figure. Soybean stocks are expected lower as record crush in the third quarter more than offset lower exports, but would still represent the second highest stocks on record. Corn stocks are expected to be just 250 million bushels lower than last year compared with the 660 million decline reported in March.   

IGC Raises World Crop Forecasts for 2020/21 

  • The International Grains Council (IGC) increased its global wheat crop forecast by 2 million tonnes to 768 million, up from 762 million last year.
  • IGC projected corn production at 1.172 billion tonnes, up from its previous projection of 1.169 billion.
  • Total grain output was raised by 7 million tonnes to 2.237 billion.
  • The council forecast grains stocks for 2020/21 at a three-year high of 635 million tonnes, up 20 million tonnes from last year.
  • Soybean production was seen at 364 million tonnes, up from the 363 million projected last month. 
  • FBN’s Take On What It Means For The Farmer:  The IGC increased the wheat crop forecast despite another cut in the EU’s production outlook. Part of that increase is due to improvement in China, which is not a significant exporter, but a larger part comes from an increase in Australia which does compete on the world market. Exports from Europe will likely be lower this season, but it appears others will be ready to pick up the slack, keeping it hard for the US to increase its wheat export market share. 

 

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