close [X]
May 12, 2020 | FBN Insights | Kevin McNew

Row Crop Progress Behind Expectations

But still three days ahead of average for corn and 10 days ahead for soybeans

Row Crop Progress Behind Expectations But Still Ahead of Average 

  • Corn planting was reported at 67% complete vs 71% expected and 56% average. This compares to 51% last week and 28% last year.
  • Soybeans were 38% planted, lagging the 42% expected, but still well ahead of 8% last year and the 23% average.
  • Spring wheat planting advanced from 29% complete last week to 42%, which is behind the 49% expected and the 63% average. 
  • Cotton planting is 32% complete, staying just ahead of the 27% average for this point in the season.
  • Emergence was also ahead of their respective averages in both corn (24% vs 22% average) and soybeans (7% vs 4% average).

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Planting is three days ahead of average for corn and ten days ahead for soybeans. The recent cold snap over the weekend raised some eyebrows, but most of the crops in these areas are expected to recover in time. The 6-10 weather forecast is mostly supportive of continued field work for the Corn Belt, which should allow planting to continue ahead of average pace.  North Dakota remains behind its average progress for corn, soybean, and wheat plantings and is essentially working at last year’s pace.

Corn Exports Strong but Soybeans Lagging

  • Corn exports for the week ended 5/07/20 were 52.5 million bushels, which was above market expectations.
  • Shipments of corn have averaged 46.0 million bushels per week over the last 7 weeks vs the approximately 39 million per week needed to reach the 1,725 million bushel USDA forecast.
  • Soybean exports of 18.2 million bushels were up from the previous week's 14.0 million. 
  • But, to reach USDA's 2019/20 projection of 1,775 million bushels, soybean exports will have to average just over 27 million bushels per week.
  • Wheat exports were just 12.5 million bushels, down from the previous week's 21.6 million, and were the lowest in 15 weeks.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Last week's activity included 2.8 million bushels of soybeans shipped to China, and while sales have picked up this week, it still appears unlikely that the USDA old-crop projection will be met by the end of the marketing year. The recent volume of corn exports does support the agency’s most recent forecast, but will need to continue at an accelerated pace from now until the end of August. The last two weeks have been disappointing for wheat.  Minor adjustments to USDA’s wheat export forecast could be forthcoming as the crop year winds down.

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. FBN BR LLC (NFA ID: 0508695)

More Articles