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July 09, 2020 | FBN Insights | Kevin McNew

U.S. Weekly Export Sales

Soybeans are expected to make a comeback in 2020 with China’s growing hog herd the key reason

U.S. Weekly Export Sales  

  • Old-crop corn sales totaled 24 million bushels and were up notably from last week while new-crop sales totaled 16 million. 
  • FBN expects USDA to cut its old-crop export forecast and that the new-crop forecast could be too optimistic.
  • Old-crop soybean sales totaled 35 million bushels with FBN not expecting any significant change to USDA’s 2019/20 soybean export forecast.  
  • New-crop soybean sales came in at 14 million with China the key buyer.
  • FBN looks for new-crop soybean exports to be up notably, year over year.
  • Wheat sales totaled 12 million bushels, which was disappointing overall.
  • But, buyers likely are focusing on Black Sea supplies right now.
  • FBN is more optimistic than USDA regarding wheat export potential.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: The crop year for 2019/20 is wrapping up for corn and beans. Soybeans are expected to make a comeback in 2020 with China’s growing hog herd the key reason. But, it is hard to justify a corn export program as large as USDA’s outlook for both crop years. Northern Hemisphere wheat supplies for major exporters are down versus last year with the outcome expected to be that the U.S. could benefit.     

French Supply and Demand Outlooks from FranceAgriMer

  • Soft wheat production is forecast at 31.3 million tonnes, down from 39.6 million last year with total supplies down sharply.
  • Exports to non-EU countries are forecast at 7.8 million tonnes versus 13.6 million shipped in 2019/20.
  • Ending stocks are seen dropping to 2.6 million tonnes, down from 3 million.
  • Durum production is forecast to be down 200,000 tonnes to 1.3 million.
  • Exports to non-EU countries are seen dropping 200,000 tonnes while French imports are forecast to rise marginally.
  • Ending stocks are forecast at 82,000 tonnes, below 120,000 last year.
  • Barley production is not expected to be hit as hard as wheat with harvest down around 1.4 million tonnes or 10%.
  • Barley exports are forecast to drop to 6.4 million tonnes from 7.8 million.
  • But, stocks are forecast to increase abot 500,000 tonnes to 2.1 million.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: The smaller wheat crops are a net benefit to other exporters, including the U.S. The durum crop was not hit as hard as the soft wheat crop but still is forecast to be down, year over year. That also is a positive for the US, especially given the stocks USDA issued on June 1. 

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