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September 22, 2020 | FBN Insights | Kevin McNew

Markets Mixed on Tuesday after Monday’s Weakness

Export demand is strong right now and feed demand is solid

U.S. Weekly Crop Progress for the Week Ending September 20

  • Corn harvest advanced to 8% complete versus the 10% average.
  • Harvest was up from 5% last week; 59% of the crop is dented.
  • Soybean harvest was 6% complete, in line with average with 59% of the crop dropping leaves, which is ahead of the 50% average.
  • Conditions for both crops were steady to slightly better for the week.
  • Cotton harvest was 11% complete, in line with the average.
  • Sorghum harvest was 27% complete and near the average.
  • Winter wheat planting came in at 20%, up from 10% last week and near the average at 19%.  Emergence was reported at 3%.
  • Spring wheat harvest is wrapping up with 96% of the crop cut.

FBN’s Take On What It Means : Even though harvest is here for corn and soybeans, we are not overly bearish basis at this time - and certainly are not as bearish as we were three months ago. That is because export demand is strong right now and feed demand also is solid.  While there could be slight harvest pressure on basis levels we are not expecting significant weakness.  Winter wheat acreage is expected to be higher this year in the US as well as across the Northern Hemisphere.   

Grains Turn Lower on Monday 

  • Red flashed across the CME and ICE markets on Monday.
  • Corn, soybeans, wheat, and canola all were lower.
  • Corn futures dropped 13 1/2 cents for the day after trading at their highest level since early March.
  • The continuous soybean chart posted losses after hitting its highest value since May 2018, closing just above the day’s low and losing 21 cents.
  • Chicago wheat dropped about 20 cents with the continuous chart coming off highs hit in late March; KC wheat dropped 17 cents for the day.
  • Minneapolis December futures posted a 17 cent loss after trading to its highest level since January.
  • Canola lost about $5 per tonne, coming off its highest levels since May 2018.
  • Equity markets also were weaker Monday with the DOW and S&P both lower.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Fundamentally the global commodity situation has not significantly altered in a day.  However, we do lean towards Monday’s losses as being a slight correction after steady increases for days. We still look for fair-valued soybean futures around $11 at harvest. Brazil and Argentina both would welcome moisture with the market eying that situation as planting season approaches.

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