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November 20, 2020 | FBN Insights | Kevin McNew

Soy & Corn Sales Exceed Expectations

Prices may consolidate after reaching four-year high near $12 but are expected to be well supported for now

Soy & Corn Sales Exceed Expectations 

  • Weekly export sales of soybeans were 51 million bushels which beat expectations though they were a marketing year low.
  • Net sales to China were 39 million bushels.
  • Sales for the marketing year total 1,885 million bushels compared to 867 million last year and the 5-year average of 1,087 million bushels.
  • Export sales of corn for the week were 42.8 million bushels.
  • China bought 6.9 million bushels of corn, bringing the total for the season to 429.1 million.
  • Sales to all destinations for the marketing year total 1,390 million bushels, compared to the 5-year average of 787 million.
  • Wheat sales of 7.1 million bushels were down 36% from the previous week to a marketing year low. 
  • Upland cotton registered sales of 131,400 running bales which was down 45% from the previous week and 40% below the prior 4-week average.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Though the pace of sales has slowed somewhat, totals are still record large for this time of year. Producers have sold a significant portion of their bean crop at harvest and are likely to become reluctant sellers until after the start of the new year. Prices may consolidate after reaching a 4-year high near $12 but are expected to be well supported for now.  

Argentine Crop Update

  • Corn planting progress was reported at 31% complete, nearly unchanged from last week and behind the 46% reported last year for the same week.
  • The forecast for total corn planted area was unchanged at 6.3 million hectares (15.6 million acres).
  • Bean planting advanced 9 points to 29% complete compared to 31% last year.
  • Projected soy planted area remains unchanged at 17.2 million hectares (42.5 million acres).
  • Soil moisture is rated as favorable to optimum for 95% of the area versus 63% last year.
  • Wheat harvest has progressed to 20% complete from 15.5% last week, and is on pace with average.
  • Buenos Aires Grain Exchange left its wheat crop forecast unchanged at 16.8 million tonnes, but warned of possible downward revisions.  

FBN’s Take On What It Means:  Recent rainfall was helpful but coverage has been sporadic, and some early planted areas will have to be replanted, when and if moisture levels improve. After being dry this week, normal to above normal precipitation and above normal temperatures are forecast through the end of the month. It has not been an ideal start for the growing season in Argentina and the risk of a drier than normal year remains. This elevated risk is expected to help support prices. 

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