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July 17, 2020 | FBN Insights | Kevin McNew

Weekly Export Sales Report

Next week's new crop sales will be quite strong given daily announcements of China in recent days

Weekly Export Sales Report 

  • Old crop soybean sales, for the week ended July 9, were 11.5 million bushels, down sharply from the previous week.
  • New crop bean sales of 21.1 million bushels were within expectations and included 14.3 million to China, bringing their 2020/21 total to 169 million. 
  • Old crop corn sales last week were 38.6 million bushels, which was well within expectations and the highest in nine weeks. 
  • 30.2 million bushels of the old crop corn sales were to China, bringing their 2019/20 total purchases to 82.7 million bushels.
  • New crop corn sales of 25.8 million bushels were well below market expectations.
  • Wheat sales of 28.1 million bushels were above market expectations and were the highest of the first six weeks of the 2020/21 marketing year.
  • Upland cotton saw net sales reductions of -17,500 running bales for 2019/2020 and 29,100 running bales for 2020/2021.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Last week’s sales report held few positive surprises compared to expectations. Next week's new crop sales will obviously be quite strong given the daily announcements to China in recent days. 

Russian Wheat Crop Down 

  • Russia's Hydrometcentre reported unfavourable weather in the first half of July for its spring grains.
  • Hot and dry weather in the east and heavy rains in the west are both hindering crop development.
  • Russia's agriculture ministry kept its forecast for the 2020 grain harvest unchanged at 122.5 million tonnes, including 75 million tonnes of wheat.
  • Russian agriculture consultant IKAR recently decreased its wheat crop forecast to 76.5 million tonnes. 
  • SovEcon downgraded its estimates for wheat earlier this week due to low yields in southern regions to 79.7 million tonnes.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: The ‘Southern Region’ and neighboring areas in eastern Ukraine have all dried down during the past week. Soil moisture is short to very short with the driest conditions noted in Southern Russia. Russia is still on track to harvest a large grain crop this year, equal to an average crop of recent years, but concern over production potentials is rising. The reduction may provide opportunity for exports from other origins later in the season, but the recent rally in US prices makes supplies here uncompetitive. 

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