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October 16, 2019 | FBN Insights | Kevin McNew

Markets Ease Despite Harvest Delays

Concern some corn and soybean crops will be left in fields, particularly for North Dakota

Crop Progress Continues to Show Slow Harvest 

The U.S. corn crop was 22% harvested and 73% mature.

Average harvest pace is 36% with maturity at 92%.

Soybean harvest was at 26% compared with the 49% average.

There was limited progress in North and South Dakota this week.

Spring wheat harvest was nearly complete at 94%.

Cotton harvest was slightly ahead of average at 32%.

Winter wheat plantings were 65% complete.

The report was delayed until Tuesday due to the Columbus Day Holiday.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: The lack of harvest progress for corn and soybeans as well as the immature corn crop are supportive items. There is concern that some of the corn and soybean crops will be left in the fields, particularly for North Dakota. Pinpointing harvested area will be key moving forward. Producers are encouraged to take note of states with significant harvest delays as basis opportunities may be present. 

NOPA Report Falls Short of Expectations, Stocks Rise

NOPA reported September crush at 152.6 million bushels.

Industry expectations averaged near 162 million bushels with the low end at 155.7 million.

September crush was down from 168 million bushels in August and down from September 2018 at 161 million.

Month over month, crush declined about nine percent.

Oil stocks increased to 1.442 billion pounds.

This was the first monthly increase in five months.

August stocks totaled 1.4 billion pounds with September 2018 at 1.53 billion.

Analysts looked for a monthly decline in stocks rather than a boost.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: The disappointing crush total weighed on soy markets Tuesday. Plants likely had downtime with maintenance. With basis remaining strong, plants also may have slowed running time to maintain or improve margins. This year’s slow harvest also contributed to the monthly decline in crush. FBN has a slightly lower crush forecast for 2019/20 compared with USDA and FBN looks for marketing year crush to fall near the 2018/19 total.  Monthly crush is forecast to improve and seasonally picks up in October.     

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