October 14, 2019 | FBN Insights | Kevin McNew

Markets Cool After Friday

North Dakota will face significant issues with harvesting the remainder of its corn and soybean crops

North Dakota Gets Slammed with Snow  

The storm dumped about 10 inches to nearly two feet of snow across most of the state.

According to USDA, as of October 6, North Dakota had not started corn harvest and only 22 percent of the crop was mature.

Soybean harvest was eight percent complete as of October 6 with nearly all the crop dropping leaves. 

In its October report, USDA forecast North Dakota would cut 483 million bushels of corn and 194 million bushels of soybeans.

Wheat harvest was 90 percent complete, as of October 6.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: We believe North Dakota will face significant issues with harvesting the remainder of its corn and soybean crops. At best, harvest is further delayed for the majority of the state, keeping new-crop supplies off the market for the near term.  More likely, corn and soybean bushels will be lost. Conditions are forecast to warm up mid-week for North Dakota, but field conditions will be far from ideal.    

      

China’s Hog Herd down 41.1% in September Compared with Last Year

African swine fever remains the culprit of China’s hog industry losses.

The decline in September at 41.4 percent from last year is up slightly from the August decline at 38.7 percent.  

The number of sows is down by 38.9 percent.

A fresh case was reported in northwest China over the weekend.

The declining animal numbers is taking a toll on feed demand.

China’s September soybean imports at 8.2 million tonnes were down 13.5 percent, month over month, but were marginally larger than September 2018’s imports at 8.0 million.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: China’s declining hog herd is affecting its feed demand. While the declines offer opportunities for the U.S. meat industry, it dampens prospects for soybean demand as China struggles to rebuild its hog herd. Trade talks between the U.S. and China appear to have been overall positive the past few days, but additional work is needed to secure the agreement, which could help keep soybean futures supported despite China’s lagging feed demand.   

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. FBN BR LLC (NFA ID: 0508695)

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