Prevent Plant Acres Spark Debate
- FSA issued their first report of prevent planting claims of the year Wednesday and will continue to update these numbers on a monthly basis.
- Through July 31, total prevent planting claims are 8.991 million acres for all crops.
- 5.375 million acres of corn were registered to prevent planting, with 1.223 million acres of soybeans and 1.195 million acres of wheat.
- This compares to last year, which saw 11.4 million acres of corn, 4.5 million soybeans and 2.2 million wheat.
- In the five years prior to 2019 total prevent planting area averaged close to 4 million acres, and corn averaged 1.4 million.
FBN’s Take On What It Means: The large prevent plant claims help explain the lower-than-expected area reflected in the June 30 Acreage report. However, the FSA report also brought into question whether total acres planted may be reduced further. The larger difference is likely due to the reporting deadline being pushed from July 15 to August 15, and the September certified acres report will give a better idea as to what the final planted area will look like. We remain leery of making any sweeping changes to planted acres expectations based on these incomplete data.
EU Crop Forecast Mixed
- Strategie Grains lowered its 2020 soft wheat forecast for the EU plus Britain to 128 million tonnes.
- The projection has fallen from 140.5 million tonnes last December, and is 13% below an estimated 2019 crop of 147 million.
- The forecast for 2020/21 soft wheat exports was reduced to 23.1 million tonnes from 25.3 million, 12.5 million tonnes below last year.
- For barley, Strategie Grains kept its harvest forecast unchanged at 64.2 million tonnes, up nearly 3% from last year.
- SG increased forecasted corn production 1.0 million tonnes to 67.4 million, up 5% versus 2019.
- The USDA lowered production for the region by 500,000 tonnes from 68.3 million to 67.8 million tonnes
FBN’s Take On What It Means: The smaller wheat crop in Europe has been well documented and USDA did increase its US export forecast in its August report. The increased corn forecast reportedly reflected good conditions in central Europe and continued expectations for increased area and yield in France, despite heat and dryness in the region. USDA increased its EU corn import projection by 2 million tonnes, which could add to US sales to the bloc.
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