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January Report Expectations

​The grains are eyeing the USDA's four major reports​ scheduled for release at 11 AM CST. Here are the expectations.

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In the overnight session corn is trading down 3 ¾ cents, soybeans is down 4 ¾ cents and wheat is down 2 cents. This morning all eyes will be focused on the four major USDA reports scheduled for release at 11 AM CST.

Corn Production: Average Analyst Guess

Corn production is expected to be lowered by 58 million bushels, with yield revised .1 bushel per acre lower and a 332,000 acre decrease in harvested acres. The large gap between FSA and NASS acreage numbers is expected to narrow in this report.

Soybean Production: Average Analyst Guess

Soybean production for 2014 is also expected to see a slight decline by only 2 million bushels. Yield is expected to increase by .1 bushels per acre, but acres are anticipated to drop by 359,000. Neither corn nor soybeans are expecting a sizable revision in the production side of the balance sheet.

Note: The average analyst guess from the Reuters Poll suggests production to be lowered for both corn and soybeans. However, of the last 20 years there have been 4 record yielding crops for corn and 5 record yielding crops for soybeans. In every record yielding crop the USDA has increased its production forecast in the January report. Perhaps this January report will be no different.

January Ending Stocks Estimates

Analysts are expecting ending stocks to rise for wheat by 12 million bushels to 666 million bushels carryout. Corn and soybean ending stocks are both expected to decline in this month's report. The average analyst guess has corn expected to decline by 71 million bushels to a 1.927 billion bushels carryout and soybeans to shrink 17 million bushel to 393 million bushels as a result of strong export sales which have booked 90% of the current USDA expectation already with 34 weeks left in the marketing year.

Quarterly Grain Stocks Expectations

Quarterly grain stocks are expected to be substantially larger than last years levels at this time due to the record yields this year. If the expected corn stocks are realized, this will be the largest amount of corn stocks ever in the U.S during this time of the year. However, with grain at discounted prices in the 4th quarter of 2014 we may see a healthy amount of grain used for feed which could provide some surprise in the market.

Winter Wheat Seedings

Winter wheat seedings are expected to increase this year by 3.8% with over 500,000 acres being added to hard wheat and over 400,000 acres removed from soft wheat.

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