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July 18, 2019 | FBN Insights | Kevin McNew

India’s Monsoon Cumulative Rains Below Average

Soybean, soymeal futures trading at week lows this morning on slightly cooler temps across Corn Belt

Soybean and soymeal futures were trading at week lows this morning on slightly cooler temperature forecasts across the Corn Belt.  Weekly export sales were not supportive this morning for soybeans. 

 

India’s Monsoon Cumulative Rains Below Average in Several States 

  • India’s latest monsoon report showed that several states had below average rainfall since June 1. 
  • Gujarat is a key cotton-producing state and its rainfall total is a deficit from normal.  
  • The Eastern border states generally have below-average rainfall as well, but this is a key rice-producing area.  
  • Overall, India’s cumulative rainfall is 16 percent below average.
  • India grows major crops, including corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton.
  • What It Means for the U.S. Farmer: While India’s monsoon rains are below average, most states are not significantly suffering at this point in the rainy season. Additional rains would be welcome and are key for irrigation later in the year. Typically, India is not a dominant importer of major commodities such as wheat unless India incurs significant production losses, but the deficit for the cotton-producing areas is key as India is an exporter of cotton and one of the world’s largest producers. At FBN, we believe there could be potential upside in cotton futures into the coming crop year, particularly if India’s rainfall deficit does not shrink. Look for more details in this week’s newsletter.

 

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. FBN BR LLC (NFA ID: 0508695)

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