Grains were mixed overnight as soybeans found some selling pressure, falling below $8.80, while corn and wheat had some modest gains in the overnights session. Outside equity markets came under pressure overnight as crude oil fell below $30 a barrel.
Moisture has returned to Ukraine and Russia after a very dry fall got the winter wheat crop off to a poor start. A couple of impressive storms moved from Ukraine into parts of Russia with moisture totals varied from 0.3 to 1.3 inches and where it came as snow accumulations were substantial at times with 3 to 8 inches and local totals to 15 occurring from last weekend’s storm bringing snow depths at that time up around 2 feet in a few areas.
On Thursday, the monthly El Nino/La Nina report from NOAA's U.S. Climate Prediction Center stated "A strong El Niño is expected to gradually weaken through spring 2016, and to transition to ENSO-neutral during late spring or early summer.” La Nina events tend to be associated with US droughts in the Midwest, so a forecast that pushes the La Nina to after the summer of 2016 would suggest a lower likelihood of drought this growing season.
Oil is sliding for a third week on signs Iranian exports may add to a global supply glut. Commodity producers led losses in European stocks and US equity futures suffered sharp losses overnight. Crude’s drop to a 12-year low is sending shock waves around the world. Norway sees a crisis in its industry, energy firms are laying off workers and currency markets from commodity-producing countries are in turmoil. The slump is also denting the outlook for inflation around the world, causing traders to curb bets on how far the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year.
International sanctions on Iran may be lifted Monday, allowing for a boost in oil shipments from the fifth-biggest member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Iran is trying to regain lost market share and doesn’t intend to pressure prices with an export increase once sanctions are removed, officials from its petroleum ministry and national oil company said this month.
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