Grains were mixed overnight with soybeans drifting lower while wheat and corn tried to hold on to modest gains. In outside markets, S&P futures were trying to take another run at the 2,100 mark while crude oil was trading lower.
In wheat, prices have been battered down in the past 4 trade sessions on improved weather in key wheat growing regions around the globe. Overnight, the Ukrainian agriculture ministry and traders' unions have agreed to limit wheat exports from Ukraine to 16.6 MMT in the 2015/16 season. The figure could be reviewed depending on the outlook for next year's winter wheat harvest, which may fall sharply due to unfavorable weather this fall. The 16.6 MMT figure is still above USDA’s export projection for Ukraine of 15 MMT. Farmers in the European Union have sown 23.9 million hectares with soft wheat ahead of the 2016 harvest, an estimate reduced by 100,000 hectares from last month, and now down 1 percent on 2015/16, consultancy Strategie Grains said on Thursday.
Japan's Ministry of Agriculture bought a total of 114,941 MT of food quality wheat from the United States and Canada in a regular tender that closed late on Thursday. Of the total, 80,000 MT was sold by the US.
In Brazil, expansive coverage in the next two weeks remains likely to further limit any near-term dryness concern and will recharge topsoil moisture, although rains may be very heavy (6 to 10” or more) in parts of Parana over the next ten days. This will threaten some pockets of excess moisture for corn/soy and will slow port loading, but the pattern otherwise aids corn and soybean development elsewhere. The Center-West soy will see showers peak Friday/Saturday, with additional chances at the middle of next week and in the 11 to 15 day.
S&P futures (ESZ5) were higher on Thursday, a day after minutes from the Federal Reserve's October meeting flagged a December interest rate hike and pointed to a cautious approach after that. The minutes showed that central bankers are grappling with longer-term issues that may be relevant to the pace of subsequent rate hikes. U.S. interest rates futures implied a 72 percent chance of a liftoff next month, up from 64 percent on Tuesday.
On Wednesday, crude oil (GCLZ5 / QMZ5) fell below $40 a barrel for the first time since August as an EIA report showed higher crude stocks. Crude inventories rose by 252,000 barrels to 487.3 million barrels in the last week, compared with analysts' expectations for an increase of 1.9 million barrels. Eight straight weekly increases have boosted stockpiles to close to their modern-day record 490.9 million barrels in April.
WEEKLY EXPORT INSPECTIONS
Actual Expected
Corn 779.8 500-700
Soybeans 1,797.6 700-1,100
Wheat 721.9 200-400
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