Grains were mixed overnight with soybeans a leader to the downside on a 4-cent loss while corn gave up 1 cent. Chicago wheat was trying to hold on to a 1-cent advance. In outside markets, crude oil was up $0.40 a barrel while the S&P 500 slipped 0.40 percent.
Grains should mostly mark time in the coming two sessions with USDA slated to announce their latest supply and demand estimates on Friday, October 9 at 11 am CDT. For corn, analysts look for US production at 13.504 billion bu (vs USDA Sept 13.585); yield 167.1 (USDA Sept. 167.5), harvested acres 80.826 million (USDA last 81.101). For soybeans, the average expectation of USDA’s production figure was 3.908 billion bu (vs USDA Sept. 3.935), yield 47.2 (USDA Sept. 47.1), harvested acres 82.914 mln (USDA last 83.549).
In global supply news, USDA’s attaché in Brazil expects farmers there to increase area to a record Brazilian soybean crop of 97 MMT, which matches USDA's current official forecast. However, in Argentina the 2015/16 soybean production area is unchanged at 20 million hectares with production forecast at 57 MMT.
USDA’s weekly export sales report showed little variation from expectations this week. Soybeans came in at the high end of expectations with weekly net sales of 1,284,600 MT while corn came in just below expectations with weekly sales at only 519,700 MT. Wheat did improve from last week’s disappointing sales to hit 288,200 MT but was in the middle of analyst expectations.
U.S. stock-index futures slipped, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (ESZ5) near a seven-week high, before the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting and earnings from Alcoa Inc. A report today showed filings for unemployment benefits declined last week to the lowest level since mid-July, extending a run of applications near decade lows that shows dismissals remain in check. Jobless claims fell by 13,000 to 263,000 in the week ended Oct. 3, the fewest since July 18, according to the Labor Department. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey called for 274,000 applications. The benchmark S&P 500 reached its highest level since Aug. 20 yesterday, at the top end of a range the index has traded in since bottoming at 1,867.61 on Aug. 25.
Crude (GCLX5 / QMX5) was up in the overnight trying to recover losses from yesterday’s news of higher stocks. U.S. commercial crude inventories increased by 3.1 million barrels last week, maintaining a total U.S. commercial crude inventory of 461 million barrels. The commercial crude inventory remains near levels not seen at this time of year in at least the past 80 years.
USDA WEEKLY EXPORT SALES (in thousand metric tons)
Weekly Net Sales Expectations
Corn 519.7 550-750
Soybeans 1,284.6 700-1,200
Wheat 288.2 175-375
