Grains slipped overnight ahead of USDA’s crop report at 11 am CDT today. In outside markets, crude oil was pushing higher back into the mid $52 range while the US dollar was mostly steady.
USDA reports the sale of 107,000 MT of soybeans to unknown destinations.
Traders expect only minor changes to USDA’s supply and demand data, with the biggest consensus for a modest drop in US corn carry-out and potentially a cut in US soy carry-out. International factors like SA production and China soy imports will likely play a bigger role. USDA could bump China soy imports from current estimates of 86 MMT as the country has been aggressively buying. Supply estimates are expected to show Brazil beans at 104 and Argentina at 54. But, many analysts continue to peg a higher Brazil number in the 105-106 range; forecaster Conab this morning pegged it at 105.6 MMT.
China curbed its corn surplus for 2016/17 due to better-than-expected domestic demand and lower imports, as it embarks on a strategy to erode its vast stockpile, curb acreage and boost consumption. In its monthly crop report, the Ministry of Agriculture said it expected surplus supply for the 2016/17 season that ends in September to total 4.41 million tonnes, down from last month's prediction of 5.11 million tonnes. That would be way below 33.73 million tonnes in 2015/16. The data does not include state reserves, which are estimated to be around 200 million tonnes, equivalent to one year's worth of demand.
Weekly Export Sales-
Actual Expected
Wheat - OC 527 300-500
Wheat - NC 16 25-100
Corn - OC 971 800-1,100
Corn - NC 34 0-150
Soybeans - OC 536 500-800
Soybeans - NC 129 100-250
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