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November 16, 2020 | FBN Insights | Kevin McNew

Weekly Export Sales Firm

Grain sales have slowed from the rapid rate seen in the first two months of the marketing year

Weekly Export Sales Firm

  • Soybean sales, for the week ended November 5, of 54 million bushels were within market expectations and were in line with sales the last two weeks.
  • China bought 21 million bushels, bringing their total purchases for 2020/21 to 1,014 million compared to 209 million last year. 
  • There are also 386 million bushels in sales on the books for "unknown" of which half is likely for China.
  • Corn sales last week were 38.5 million bushels, down from the previous three weeks' sales of 72-103 million bushels per week.
  • China purchases for the week were just 433,000 bushels, and their total purchases are at 425 million.
  • Wheat sales of 11.0 million bushels were disappointing as it was the second lowest total of the marketing year to date.
  • Upland cotton sales of 236,800 running bales were up 30% percent from the prior 4-week average with increases primarily for Pakistan and Vietnam.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Grain sales have slowed from the rapid rate seen in the first two months of the marketing year. However, total commitments to all destinations easily remain record high for early November. Exporters will need to continue incentivizing producers to move grain to fulfill these obligations, which will likely continue to support prices. 

Mato Grosso Soy Crop At Risk

  • AgRural reports less than normal rains have delayed planting and cast doubt over yields in the state. 
  • Planting progress has reached 94% complete according to Imea.
  • Producers in the western portion of the state are having to replant areas that have been dry too long.
  • One large producer reported it will reduce planted area over 12% from the 369,000 acres initially planned.
  • Mato Grosso usually produces about 30% of Brazil’s soybean crop.
  • Conab forecast Mato Grosso will produce almost 37 million tonnes of soybeans in 2021.
  • The agency projected Brazi’s total production at a record of 135 million tonnes.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: A drought in September led to planting delays in some regions of Brazil and in Mato Grosso. It is still early in the season and weather could improve, but the start of the growing season has not been ideal. The weather risk is intensified as US ending stocks are seen shrinking.

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