February 25, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 778

Gains Going into the Break This Morning

Outside Markets were Relatively Subdued

Gains Going into the Break This Morning

Grains posted modest gains going into Thursday’s break, while outside markets were relatively subdued in quite, two-sided trading.

 

In wheat news, Egypt announced another tender yesterday for shipment Mar 26-Apr 4. Also, Saudi Arabia announced a large tender for 770,000 MT of hard wheat. India is also expected to be entering the market soon as weather issues there have cut back on supplies.

 

This morning, USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum provided the first look at 2016 USDA acreage projections. Although not based on formal surveys, it provides a basis for the markets prior to the first official survey released at the end of March.  USDA’s chief economist pegged corn plantings up 2 million in 2016 to reach 90.0 million. Trade expectations were for a 1.5 million acre increase. For soybeans, USDA expects a 0.2 million acre drop in 2016 versus the trade looking for a 0.6 million acre increase. Wheat acres are expected to drop 3.6 million versus only a 2.2 million acre drop expected by analysts.

 

Crude oil got a lift on Wednesday as EIA inventory data was in line with analyst expectations. The report showed a bump in crude stocks on the week by 3.5 million barrels, versus trade expectations of a 3.4 million barrel increase. Crude managed to rally over a $1.50 a barrel on that news, but has been on the defensive since then.  However, at 507.6 million barrels, the latest increase pushed total domestic crude inventory to another weekly high and 74 million barrels higher compared with last year. In monthly data, which doesn’t line up exactly with weekly data, inventories last exceeded 500 million barrels in 1930.

 

WEEKLY EXPORT SALES

                                Actual (OC+NC)      Expected (OC+NC)

Corn                              1,066                     700-1,200

Soybeans                        328.6                      300-700

Wheat                            486.2                      200-400

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a dba of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

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