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October 02, 2019 | FBN Insights | Kevin McNew

FBN Issues New Corn Recommendations

Uncertainty around the yields and size of the corn and soybean crops remains headed into October WASDE

Brazil’s September Agricultural Exports Solid 

Brazil exported 4.45 million tonnes of soybeans in September.

Soybean exports were down from August at 5.3 million tonnes but were near September 2018 at 4.56 million. 

Soymeal exports at 1.3 million tonnes were in line, month-over-month, and with last year.

Corn exports were strong at 6.5 million tonnes.

While corn exports were below August at 7.6 million tonnes, shipments were nearly double September 2018 exports at 3.4 million tonnes.

Pork exports at 49,800 tonnes were in line with a year ago but up slightly from August.  

Beef exports at 123,700 tonnes were down month-over-month, and were below last year.

Poultry exports followed a similar pattern with beef, coming in at 298,600 tonnes, which was down slightly from August and was below a year ago.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: As FBN has been stating, Brazil remains competitive on the corn export front.  Brazil’s supplies are tightening ahead of new-crop plantings, but export volume from the world’s second largest exporters of corn remains aggressive.  Interest in U.S. corn is expected to pick up in the coming weeks with U.S. harvest advancement coupled with Brazil’s crop year coming to an end and tightening stocks.  What is noteworthy to FBN is that despite China certifying over 50 packing facilities for exports during 2019 amid increased Chinese demand, Brazil’s meat exports are not higher when compared to the same period during 2018.  Growth in the livestock sector takes time and Brazil is widely expected to boost its boxed meat shipments to China both later this year and in 2020. However, China is expected to source its protein import needs from several countries rather than rely on one key supplier. 


FCStone Updates U.S. Crop Forecasts

The agency raised its corn yield from 168.4 bushels per acre to 169.3 bushels.

Corn production is forecast at 13,887 million bushels.

USDA’s September forecasts included 168.2 bushels per acre yield and production at 13,799 million bushels.

FBN updated its corn yield forecast last week to 168.1 bushels per acre.

FCStone forecasts soybean yield at 48.1 bushels per acre, down marginally from its previous forecast at 48.3 bushels.

Production is forecast at 3,648 million bushels, which compares with USDA’s September forecast at 3,633 million and a yield of 47.9 bushels.

FBN is updating its soybean yield forecast this week.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Uncertainty around the yields and size of the corn and soybean crops remains headed into the October WASDE. While corn and soybean conditions have stabilized in recent months, the WASDE report could include adjustments to acreage for corn and soybeans. FBN is smaller for both corn and soybean production compared with USDA’s September forecasts.    

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. FBN BR LLC (NFA ID: 0508695)

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