Grains traded both side of unchanged overnight but came into the morning break with losses, especially for soybeans. In outside markets, crude oil started the week lower while equity and bond futures posted modest gains.
Weather for the 2nd half of the month looks to be hot and wet which gave the soybean market a reason to head lower. After a cooler than normal first half of July, Corn Belt temperatures will heat up later this week to average 6 to 9 degrees hotter than normal and much of the rest of the nation will also be hot. New GFS maps have the next 16 days with widespread storms east of the Mississippi, limited moisture and some heat across the WCB and N Plains and very limited storminess and excessively hot and dry over the S Plains.
NOPA June crush came in at 145.05 mb compared to trade est. of 155.4 and May’s crush of 152.82. The avg. daily rate of crush was 4.84 mb which is the lowest rate of the year, just below the Jan rate of 4.85 mb. Oil stocks were 1.985 bln lbs vs. 1.994 in May. Meal exports were 594 tst vs. 682 in May.
Crop conditions will be released later today after the market close. Crops should show a deterioration in SD, NE, MI, OH and IN while rains benefited crops in ND, MN, KS, much of MO, and good portions of IL, IN and WI.
Oil prices fell on Monday as traders shrugged off the impact of the attempted coup in Turkey and the market turned its attention to bearish fundamentals, while disruptions to crude exports in Libya lent prices some support. A report by Morgan Stanley raised concerns about the longer-term outlook for oil consumption as demand for petrochemicals rather than fuels such as diesel and gasoline is clouding the outlook for crude demand.
In export news, Egypt is in the market for wheat although the US is likely not to garner the business as last week’s deals to Egypt went to Ukraine and Russia.
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