January 17, 2020 | FBN Insights | Kevin McNew

China’s Pork Production Falls to 16-Year Low

Hog mortality rates from ASF will continue to be positive for the US pork and poultry export programs

China’s Pork Production in 2019 Falls to 16-Year Low   

Chinese pork production fell to a 16 year low during 2019 as African swine fever (ASF) killed millions of hogs.

China produced 42.55 million tonnes (MT) of pork in 2019 down 21.3% from 2018, and the lowest since 2003.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs reported China's hog herd had declined in October by 41% from 2018 but rose by 2% in November.

The Chinese government estimates that the hog herd declined 27.5% from a year earlier to 310.41 million head (MH) by the end of December. This figure is up from the 306.75 mh reported during the first nine months of the year. 

China has the world’s largest hog herd and is the largest consumer of pork.  

There is no vaccine for ASF.  

FBN’s Take On What It Means:  At FBN, we believe that the hog mortality rates from ASF will continue to be a positive for the U.S. pork and poultry export programs.  We also believe that continued Chinese demand pull is positive for U.S. hog and broiler growth which can be supportive for U.S. feed grains demand.  The contraction of China’s hog herd is a negative for soybean meal demand and soybean imports.                                                   

French Wheat Plantings Estimate to Decline to 19-Year Low

France's planted soft winter wheat acres fell 10% compared with 2019 to a 19-year low after rains disrupted field work.  

Agri-consultant Sigma Consell estimated French planted area at 4.47 million hectares (MH), down from 4.97 MH in 2019.  

French soft wheat production in 2020 is estimated at 33.3 million tonnes, down from a 2019 crop of 39.5 MMT that was the second-largest on record.

France is the largest wheat producer and wheat exporter in the EU.  

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Because the U.S. SRW is a substitute for French milling wheat and directly competes with French exports in the global market FBN believes that declining French wheat production can be a positive for the 2020/21 U.S. soft wheat (SRW) export program.                                                                                                                         


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