June 17, 2019 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 51

Corn & Soybeans Export Prices Rise

Spot basis bids for corn and soybeans shipped by barge to the U.S. Gulf Coast rose again because of flooding

NOPA May Crush Estimated 162 MBU, -2 MBU YoY

Monday, May 17 the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) releases their May soybean crush data.  A Reuters poll suggests that the soybean crush rate was down slightly from May 2018 and the second largest volume for the month of May.  

Analysts are looking for 162.474 MBU of soybeans processed in May down from 163.573 in May 2018.   

April soybean crush was 159.99 MBU.

Soyoil supplies among NOPA members at the end of May were expected at 1.784 billion pounds which would be the first decline in six months. Oil stocks were reported at 1.787 billion pounds at the end of April and 1.856 billion pounds at the end of May 2018.

What It Means for the U.S. Farmer: Similar to 2018, the monthly soybean crush pace during 2019 has been impressive.  However we believe that the U.S. cannot “crush” it’s way out of a record breaking 1.045 billion bushel carryout.  We believe that the reported decline in soybean oil stocks should be supportive of the soybean oil leg which has lagged behind meal recently.                                           

 

U.S. Corn and Soybean Export Prices Rise on Mississippi River Flooding

Spot basis bids for corn and soybeans shipped by barge to the U.S. Gulf Coast rose again on Friday on tight near-term supplies and concerns about river shipping delays because of flooding.

Large sections of the Mississippi River and tributaries have been closed to navigation because of high water and dangerous currents resulting from torrential rains.

Shipping restrictions in other sections of the Mississippi river system that includes limits on the number of barges per towboat, have caused further delays.

St. Louis harbor on the Mississippi River, which has been since May 23 may reopen to shipping later this week.

Locks above St. Louis have been closed and could reopen in the next 10 days.     

What It Means for the U.S. Farmer:  At FBN we believe that the rise in export corn and soybean prices out of the New Orleans area is a negative for the U.S. corn and soy export programs which have been struggling against foreign competitors.                  

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. FBN BR LLC (NFA ID: 0508695)

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