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May 23, 2019 | FBN Insights | Kevin McNew

Chinese Pork Imports Rise in April

Concerns about future supplies resulting from African swine fever spur buying

Chinese Pork Imports Rise 24% in April

  • China imported 136,517 tonnes of pork in April, up 24% YoY as the world's top consumer of the meat increased its global buying spree amid concerns about future supplies resulting from African swine fever (ASF)  
  • This marked the biggest monthly volume since September 2016, when pork imports topped 140,000 tonnes. The have only come close to such a high level once since then; hitting 135,900 tonnes in March 2018.
  • China has imported 470,776 tonnes of pork in the first four months of 2019, +8.4% YoY.   
  • Some estimates, including the USDA, have lowered the size of the Chinese hog herd by 200 million head from ASF.  ASF does not have a vaccine and can not be contracted by humans.
  • What It Means For The US Farmer:  At FBN we believe that the size and pace of the Chinese pork import program is not a surprise given the mortality rates stemming from ASF.  But we think that China’s aggressive pork import program from the EU and Brazil while essentially skipping the U.S. is a loss for the U.S. farmer.  China’s 62% import tariff on U.S. pork combined with the country’s arbitrary Ractopamine ban has not been positive for the U.S. farmer.


 

Russia 2019/20 Grain Exports Estimated At 45 MMT

  • The Russian Agriculture Ministry Russia expects grain exports for the 2019/2020 new season of 45 MMT, +1 MMT YoY.
  • Wheat exports are expected at 37 MMT which according to the USDA’s data would be unchanged from the 2018/19 marketing year.  
  • Russia is on track to harvest 80 MMT of wheat this year which is +9 MMT YoY.  
  • Ideal weather and timely rains have been favorable for the Russian winter wheat crop and has presented the region with a solid start to the 2019/20 row crop season.  
  • What It Means For The US Farmer: At FBN we believe that large Russian row crops can be a negative to the U.S. export programs.  It’s our opinion that a strong U.S. dollar and a generous carry structure can help keep U.S. wheat out of the global export grids and makes U.S. wheat the supplier of last resort.      

 

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