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March 18, 2019 | FBN Insights | Kevin McNew

Chinese Hog Herd Declines

African Swine Flu continues to wreak havoc on herd size

Chinese Hog Herd Declines By Estimated 16% YoY   

African swine flu continues to wreak havoc on the Chinese hog herd as the total size continues to contract amid rampant mortality rates.   

The latest herd size estimate comes from the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs showing that in February the hog herd had declined by 16.7% YoY.  The sow herd contracted by an estimated 19% YoY.

Month-on-month changes saw an estimated 5% decline in the sow herd and a 5.4% decline in the pig herd from January.      

Reflecting the decline in the hog herd, has been a major reduction in government buying for the state pork reserves.  State buying for the national pork reserves for the month is down to 10,000 MT from 100,000 MT.

What it means for U.S. Farmers: Weekly U.S. pork export volume to China has been strong over the last few weeks but the 60% tariff structure on U.S. pork imports is holding back potential business. Using the latest weekly export information it is difficult to determine if the Chinese are buying for reserves or restocking following the annual nation-wide New Year celebration. Given the declining pork and hog numbers, any resolution between China and the U.S. could be beneficial for the U.S. pork producer.


F.C. Stone Estimates 2019/20 U.S. Corn Acres At 90.4 MA

F.C. Stone is estimating 2019/20 U.S. corn acres at 90.4 MA and soybean acres at 87.7 MA.  

F.C. Stone’s corn acres are up 1.3 MA YoY while the soybean estimate has acres down 1.5 MA YoY   

What it means for U.S. Farmers: Compared to the other estimates F.C. Stone’s corn numbers are in the “middle of the pack." We expect the frequency of the private estimates to accelerate over the current week heading into USDA’s March 29th Planted Acres estimate. At FBN we will keep abreast of all the major acres estimates and report in a timely manner.

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. FBN BR LLC (NFA ID: 0508695)

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