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August 26, 2019 | FBN Insights | Kevin McNew

Final ProFarmer Forecast

Sees U.S. corn yield at 163.3 BPA and production at 13.4 billion bushels

Pro Farmer Forecasts U.S. Corn Yield at 163.3 BPA, Soy at 46.1 BPA

Friday afternoon, Pro Farmer released its production and yield forecasts for the U.S. corn and soybean crops. 

Pro Farmer sees the U.S. corn yield at 163.3 BPA and production at 13.4 billion bushels.

FBN is forecasting yield at 165.7 BPA and USDA is at 169.5 BPA.  

Pro Farmer forecast soybean yield at 46.1 BPA and production at 3.5 billion bushels. USDA’s August yield forecast was at 48.5 BPA with production at 3.68 billion bushels.

FBN will update its soybean yield forecast this week but the latest forecast is at 47.1 BPA.

Historically, Pro Farmer has overstated the national U.S. corn yield compared with USDA’s September yield forecast.

FBN’s Take On What It Means for the U.S. Farmer: This was the first large amount of objective yield data to hit the market. The scouts confirmed FBN’s expectations that corn and soybean yields are below last year and average.  Despite lower yield expectations both markets are failing to find much support. The supply side of the balance sheet remains a focal point, but demand elements also are working their way into futures prices. FBN looks for upside in corn futures but it likely will take USDA cutting production significantly before the market makes a hard move to the upside.  

 

     

China Announces Additional Tariffs on U.S. Products Friday Afternoon

Beginning September 1, China will impose an additional 5% tariff on U.S. soybeans and an additional 10% tariff on U.S. pork and beef.

Beginning December 15, an additional 10% tariff will be imposed on U.S. wheat, corn, and sorghum and an additional 5% tariff will be imposed on cotton. 

This follows an August 5 announcement that Chinese companies had halted purchases of U.S. goods.

China’s July U.S. soybean imports were unseasonably large   

Markets extended losses Friday on the tariff news but the previous announcement of China’s companies halting purchases kept losses limited. 

FBN’s Take On What It Means for the U.S. Farmer: FBN has been anticipating that the U.S./China trade war was far from being resolved. Friday’s announcement confirms that the war continues. The additional tariffs are not expected to result in a substantial decline in China’s recent buying behavior, which is significantly muted for soybeans.  

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. FBN BR LLC (NFA ID: 0508695)

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