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March 05, 2018 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 818

C and S Plains Wheat Not Favored for Rain in Next Two Weeks

March Soybeans and Wheat Up in the Overnight

Highlights

  • Argentina weather forecast remains dry
  • Kansas to remain dry this week
  • Brazil fieldwork behind LY pace  

 

Argentina

  • Weather forecast shows continued dryness over the next week.
  • Chances of precipitation at the end of next week, but weather models do not align and confidence in event remains low.
  • Everyday without precipitation reduces production.

 

Brazil

  • Weather forecast mostly unchanged.  
  • Persistent rains in northern Brazil are expected to continue to slow fieldwork.

 

Brazil Fieldwork Progress

  • Ag Rural estimates 35 percent of soybean area has been harvested compared to 47 percent LY.
  • Ag Rural estimates that 63 percent of second corn area has been planted behind 75 percent LY.
  • Ag Rural estimates 24 percent of first corn area in the center south region of Brazil has been harvested compared to 29 percent LY.  

 

Southern Plains Weather

  • The major Kansas Wheat producing region has remained bone dry over the weekend with no measurable rain recorded in Kansas, Oklahoma and the panhandle of Texas.
  • Weather is expected to remain dry over the central plains this week as temperatures increase.
  • Chances of precipitation in eastern half of Kansas in the beginning of next week.  

 

Latest South America Production Forecasts Informa

  • Argentina 17/18 soybean production forecast lowered to 44 MMT from 51 MMT.
  • Argentina 17/18 corn production forecast lowered to 33.5 MMT from 37 MMT.
  • Brazil 17/18 soybean production forecast lifted to 114 MMT from 112.5 MMT.
  • Brazil 17/18 corn production forecast lifted to 89 MMT from 88 MMT

 

Commitments of Traders- Managed Money

  • For the week ending Feb 27th, Managed Money increased their net long position in corn by 40,446 contracts to 59,120.
  • The net long MM soybean position increased by 48,270 to 147,380 contracts.
  • The net short MM position in Chicago wheat was reduced by 6,408 to -60,632.
  • The net long KCBT wheat position was reduced by 2,133 contracts to 11,008.

 

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