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As Trade Tensions Mount, China Soybean Buyers Devise Contingency Plans

Grains down in the overnight session

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Headlines

Grains lower in the overnight. Trump signs $60 Billion tariff memorandum.

China threatens 25 percent duty on pork products. Congress passes omnibus spending bill. Export sales on the lower side of expectations.

U.S. Import Tariffs

On Thursday, Trump signed a Memorandum that could impose tariffs on $60 billion of imports from China. There will be a 30 day consultation period once the list of Chinese goods are published. US Grains council expresses concern that the tariffs will trigger a “painful retaliation against U.S. agriculture.” On Friday China declared plans to levy additional duties on U.S. imports valued at around $3 billion including a 25 percent duty on pork products. Soybeans were not included in the list of U.S. products.

Omnibus Spending Bill

Congress passes $1.3 trillion omnibus spending bill. Omnibus spending bill included changes to Section 199A of the President's Tax Cuts and Jobs Act which was better known as the “Grain Glitch”. Omnibus spending bill reduced the deduction by the lesser of either 9% of farmers income from sales to a coop or 50% of wages attributed to those sales.

Argentina

Showers over the weekend concentrated in northeastern and southern regions.

Dryness is expected to continue in central and western crop region. The 6-10 day forecast turns dry again. Buenos Aires exchange cut its forecast for 2017/18 soybean production to 39.5 MMT from 42 MMT. (USDA @ 47 MMT). The exchange cut its corn production forecast for 2017/18 to 32 MMT from 34 MMT previously. (USDA @ 36 MMT)

Brazil

Rains in the west central and northwestern crop regions in the 1-5 day outlook helping the second corn crop. The 6-10 day forecast continues to bring beneficial showers, but will slow soybean harvest in the far south. Brazil soybean harvest is 58% complete, ahead of the five year average of 55%. Second corn crop planting has reached 92% complete ahead of five year average of 90%.

Export Sales

Wheat sales were down 63 percent from LW Corn sales were on the low side of expectations and down 41 percent from LW. New optional origin sales were reported for South Korea totaling 278,000 MT. Soybean sales were also on the low side of expectations, down 40 percent from LW.

Actual

Estimated

Wheat

265

100-300

Corn

1,470

1,400-2,100

Soybeans

759

700-1,400


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