Argentina Crop Expected to Recover from Last Year’s Drought
Crop forecaster Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said Thursday that it expects Argentina to produce 53 MMT of soybeans as excess water in planting regions improve and all but 1% of the crop is in a bad condition. Analysts expect the USDA to slightly cut its expectation of the crop to 54.5-55.5 MMT. Last year their crop was only 38 MMT.
BAGE estimates that the crop will reach 45 MMT, which is higher than trade expectations of 43. Also, that surpasses last year’s drought constrained production of 32 MMT.
Egypt’s GASC Back for More Wheat
The world’s number 1 wheat importer was back in the market to buy more wheat. Thursday after the market closed they announced they were tendering for wheat.
The U.S. was surprisingly competitive. Although the official results have not been announced, the US offer had the lowest CIF value for Mar 21-31 shipment.
US SRW FOB $235 + Freight $25.53 = $260.53
France FOB $245.90 + Freight $15.65 = $261.55
Romania FOB $250.84 + Freight $11.45 = $262.29
Ukraine FOB $249.25 + Freight $13.35 = $262.60
South Korea Passes on Corn Deal
South Korean feed buyer KFA was seeking one cargo or 65,000 MT of corn overnight but pulled back when the offers came in higher than expected. In mid January US corn went to KFA for $208/MT. The latest offers were reportedly $210/MT
Corn deals of late have slowed as most buyers wait on the sideline ahead of USDA’s data drop today.
In terms of pricing, US and Ukrainian values have been holding higher than buyers would like. Argentinian values have been falling of late helping them get deals done into Taiwan and Indonesia.
The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. FBN BR LLC (NFA ID: 0508695)
