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September 11, 2020 | FBN Insights |

U.S. Supply/Demand Report Expectations

Corn yield may be affected more by the derecho storm in August than soybeans

U.S. Supply/Demand Report Expectations

  • The average trade estimate for the US corn yield is 178.3 bushels per acre with a range of expectations between 175.4 and 181.0. 
  • Total production expectations average 14,898 million bushels compared with 15,278 million last month, with a range of 14,578 - 15,104 million.
  • Analysts expect new-crop corn carryout near 2,450 million bushels versus 2,756 million last month. 
  • The average bean yield is expected to drop from 53.3 bushels per acre to 51.8, with expectations ranging from 50.8 - 52.9 bushels per acre.
  • 2020/21 bean carryout is expected at 465 million bushels compared with 610 million last month. 
  • US wheat will not be addressed until the USDA Small Grains Annual Summary is released at the end of the month. 

FBN’s Take On What It Means: The largest bean yield drop from the August to the September report was down 3 bushels per acre in 2003, followed by -1.4 bushels per acre in 2013. In both of those years, crop conditions were lower than what was seen this year. Corn yield may be affected more by the derecho storm in August than soybeans. On the demand side, corn and soybean exports could be raised, though corn use for ethanol may be a drag. 

World Crop Outlook

  • The average estimate for world corn ending stocks is 311 million tonnes, within a range of 304 to 317 million tonnes.
  • Soybean ending stocks are expected to be between 89.5 and 96 million tonnes, with an average estimate of 93 million.
  • All wheat world ending stocks are expected to be 316 million tonnes on average, with estimates ranging from 312 to 320 million.
  • Brazilian production of corn is expected at 101.2 million tonnes and 125.9 million for beans, about steady with last month’s forecast.
  • Argentina’s output is also expected to be near unchanged with 49.9 million tonnes of corn and 49.7 million tonnes of beans. 

FBN’s Take On What It Means: On the world report, all eyes will be on China. USDA is expected to increase import totals across the board, but especially in soybeans. It will be important to watch for lower forecasts for EU and Ukraine corn production due to weather issues. For wheat, production in Russia, Australia, and Canada are likely up versus last month. 

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