U.S. May Plant More Beans 2021/22
Survey results for 2021/22 acreage and soybean plantings were forecast up 5M acres to 87.9M
Export Sales Announcements
- Export sales of 264,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2020/2021 marketing year.
- Export sales of 120,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2020/2021 marketing year.
- Export sales of 360,500 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2020/2021 marketing year.
Brazil Soy Area to Expand
- US soybean future prices hit two year highs on Wednesday, supported by demand from China and speculative funds.
- AgRural is projecting the soy-growing area in Brazil’s north and northeast to increase by 6.4%, while Arc Mercosul expects 6.8% growth.
- Both consultants forecast the regions to add more than 350,000 hectares, or 865,000 acres, for 2020/21.
- The center-west, which includes top producing state Mato Grosso, is forecast to add 463,000 hectares, up 2.8% from last year
- The soy fields will expand into newly deforested areas, previously created pastures, and marginal lands, due to the record profitability of planting soy.
- The Brazilian government has encouraged expansion and praised the farmers for feeding the world.
- The latest USDA forecast pegs Brazil soy production at 126 million tonnes (4,630 million bushels), up 5.3% from 119.7 million last year.
- Producers have already pre-sold around 50% of the 2020/21 crop, with planting set to begin this month in the center-west region.
FBN’s Take On What It Means: A weak currency, supportive government and high world prices have incentivized the increase in Brazil’s soy planted area. The new acres may provide a buffer in the event of poor growing weather this coming season. The US will face stiff competition from Brazil from February forward when the South American harvest starts.
- Farm Futures reported survey results for 2021/22 acreage, and soybean plantings were forecast up 5 million acres to 87.9 million.
- Corn planted area was projected almost equal to this year at 91.8 million acres.
- November soybean futures are up 15% since the August 12 report from the USDA.
- The ratio of next-crop 2021 soybeans to corn favors soybean plantings next spring by the largest degree in three years.
- China is expected to continue making large purchases of US soybeans to feed their expanding livestock population.
FBN’s Take On What It Means: Obviously it is very early and much can change before next spring, but the bean/corn ratio has been a decent predictor of acreage shifts. China demand remains key to supporting the ratio going forward.
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