January 23, 2020 | FBN Insights | Kevin McNew

Ag Futures Steady in Overnight Trading

USDA Cold Storage report shows large increase of pork and chicken stocks

Soybean Yields in Mato Grosso +10% from Last Year 

Brazilian agri consultant, Agroconsult, is reporting strong increases in soybean yields in Mato Grosso.  

Mato Grosso is the second largest soybean producing state in Brazil.

Mato Grosso planted a record area of almost 10 million hectares, 24.7 million acres, of soybeans this season.      

Agroconsult is estimating that soybean yields in Mato Grosso +10% to  +15% higher than last year.     

Agroconsult is estimating that Mato Grosso will produce 34 million tonnes (MMT) of soybeans in the 2019/2020 crop year.

Agroconsult is estimating that Brazil will harvest 124.3 MMT (4.5 billion bushels) which is higher than the 119 MMT, 4.3 billion bushels, last year.

Parts of Brazil’s soybean harvest may have been damaged due to early season heat and dryness.  

FBN’s Take On What It Means: FBN believes that rising soybean yields in Brazil’s second largest soybean producing state can be interpreted as a signal of a healthy nation-wide crop. We continue to monitor reports on the health of Brazil’s soybean crop and are focused on the size of production as many local agri consultants are predicting a record large crop this year.  A record large Brazilian soybean crop can be a negative for U.S. soybean exports.                                                            

USDA’s December Cold Storage: Pork Supplies +7% from 2019

The USDA’s Cold Storage report was released on Wednesday and showed a large increase of pork and chicken stocks.  

The report measures inventories of food supplies held in commercial and public warehouses.  

Pork stocks as of December 31st were +15% from 2018 and +15.2% above the five year average for the time period. 

Pork stocks grew by 6.1 million pounds during December. During the previous five years, pork stocks averaged a 12.5 million pound decline during the time period. 

December’s weekly federally inspected pork production averaged a +6.9% increase compared to last year. 

Total poultry stocks as of the end of December were +0.9% over year ago – the result of a +9.1% increase in chicken stocks.

Total beef stocks at the end of December -2.9% versus year ago and -4.1% under the five-year average. 

FBN’s Take On What It Mean:  FBN is focused on the volume of pork and chicken stock in cold storage.  The reason we focus on these figures is because the USDA’s Cold Storage report is widely used to help gauge the pace of exports as data collected in the report contains supplies stored in export staging facilities.  At FBN, we believe that the increase in pork and chicken stocks is indicative of robust U.S. export programs which are being driven by Chinese demand which is a positive for the U.S. farmer.                                                                                                                          

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. FBN BR LLC (NFA ID: 0508695)

More Articles