November 17, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 161

Grains Move Higher in the Overnight Session

Rains in the Midwest This Weekend Delay Corn and Soy Harvest

In the overnight session the grain moved higher with December corn up 1 ¼ cents, January Soybeans up 3 ¼ cents and December Chicago Wheat up 3 cents. Brazil rains will be scattered for the remainder of the week and provide widespread coverage for the rest of the month benefiting the corn and soybean crops. Argentina weather is more of a concern, with some isolated light showers expected today and Monday but the overall moisture profile declining over the rest of the month. Some crop stress may start to develop in North East Cordoba, Southern Santa Fe and Northern Buenos Aires.   

 

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Informa Economics announced their latest 2018 corn planting estimates at 91.415 million acres, revised higher compared to 90.460 million. They also estimated that soybean plantings in the same year at 89.627 million acres compared to 90.347 in their previous estimates. Informa also sees all wheat plantings at 45.625 million acres compared to 45.875 million acres.  In the latest WASDE report the USDA estimated that planted acres for the 17/18 crop was 90.4 million acres for corn, 90.2 million acres for soybeans and 46 million acres planted to wheat.

 

The latest harvest report from France showed that 99 percent of the corn harvest is complete for crops that were rated good-to-excellent. It also showed that SRW crop is 95 percent planted with 97 percent of the crops in good-to-excellent condition.    

 

It was announced that Iraq purchased direct from the U.S 90,000 metric tons of Rice outside of the tender process. Also in the news was Egypt’s GASC bought 240,000 metric tons of Russian wheat in a purchase tender.  

 

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November 16, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 281

Moderate Export Sales This Week

Grains Traded Mixed in the Overnight

In the overnight session the grains traded mixed with Corn up ¼ of a cent, January Soybeans up ½ a cent and December wheat up 2 ¼ cents. Weather in South America is mixed with mostly favorable weather in Brazil, but dryness starting to become noticeable in parts of Argentina which is slowing planting pace.

 

The NOPA crush report showed that processors crushed 164.242 million bushels in the month of October, which was below analyst expectations of 164.641 million bushels. The report also showed that Soymeal exports increased to 643,199 metric tons, up from 562,180 metric tons a year ago. The biggest surprise was the fact that soyoil stocks slipped to 1.224 billion pounds from 1.302 billion pounds last month. NOPA reported that 11.54 pounds of oil was produced per bushel which was below the 11.61 pounds per bushel produced last year. This has some analysts questioning the quality of this years soybean crop and triggered a rally in soyoil yesterday.
 

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Export sales this week were moderate for wheat, but soybeans was on the lower end of expectations and corn missed expectations altogether. Wheat sales were on the high side of analyst expectations but still declined 37 percent from the previous week. Corn sales were down 60 percent from last week and soybean sales slipped 5 percent.


 

Weekly Export Sales-

 

Actual

Estimated

Wheat

489

350-550

Corn - OC

949

1,200-1,700

Corn - NC

5

0-200

Soybeans - OC

1,104

1,100-1,500

Soybeans - NC

72

0-50

 

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November 15, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 411

USDA To Release Monthly Soy Crush Report

Dec Corn and Jan Soybeans Up in Overnight Session

In the overnight session December corn increased ¼ of a cent after trading at the lowest price in over a year at $3.37. January soybeans increased 3 ¾ cents and December Chicago wheat was down 1 ½ cents. Southern Brazil is expecting more precipitation on Thursday and Friday. The precipitation is expected to move north into early next week; outlook will benefit the majority of the corn and soybean crop. There is some dryness in parts of Argentina as the country continues to plant soybeans. Stress on the crop is limited for now because of long term soil moisture reserves.

 

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Today at 11 AM CST NOPA will release their monthly crush report. The National Oilseed Processors Association represents 13 companies that make up over 95 percent of soybean crush in the United States. Analysts are expecting 164.475 million bushels of soybeans crushed in the month of October. This would be a sharp jump higher from September's report that showed only 136.419 bushels crushed during that month. The month of October typically has very large crush numbers as plants ramp up production during harvest. The largest monthly crush on record was reported in October 2016 at 164.641 bushels.

In July, California added Glyphosate to a list of cancer causing chemicals and would require all products containing the chemical to carry warnings by next July. Monsanto is suing California on Wednesday to halt the labeling requirement. Monsanto rejects that the chemical causes cancer and says that the requirement would force retailers to “spread false information”. This claim is in contradiction of the World Health Organization's research that concluded that Glyphosate was “probably carcinogenic”.


 

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November 14, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 390

Corn and Wheat Drift Lower on Prospects of Large Supplies

Midwest Corn and Soy Harvest Delays Wednesday through Saturday

In the overnight session the grains were mixed with December corn down ¼ cent, November soybeans up 1 ½ cents and December wheat down ½ a penny. December corn is currently trading at $3.42 per bushel which is right at a previous low set on October 12th. The surprised yield revision by the USDA will most likely continue to weigh on corn prices as we move through the week.   

 

Exporters sell 133,096 MT of Corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2017/2018 marketing year-USDA

 

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The latest crop progress report showed that corn is now 83 percent harvested, up 13 percentage points from last week, but still below the five year average of 91 percent harvested at this point of the season. The second half of this week could provide some harvest delays, but the 6-10 day precipitation outlook shows drier than than normal conditions throughout the majority of the Midwest. Soybean harvest advanced to 93 percent complete, up from 90 last week but slightly behind the five year average of 95 percent. The soybean harvest pace was slightly behind analyst expectations for this report.

The report also showed that winter wheat is now 95 percent planted after lagging behind the five year average all season long. The winter wheat crop is rated 54 percent good-to-excellent which is behind the 59 percent good-to-excellent rating last year.

 

Farmers have planted 12 percent of the expected soybean acres in Argentina, but dryness in the forecast may slow planting pace in the coming weeks. Both Buenos Aires and Santa Fe are expected to be dry this week.
 

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November 13, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 376

Cash Market Creeps Higher

Soybeans Posting Stronger Gains than Corn

In the overnight session the grains traded lower with December corn down 1 cent, January Soybeans down 3 ½ cents and December wheat down 5 ¼ cents. The six to ten day forecast is expecting cooler than normal temperatures in the central and eastern grain belt as well as North Dakota and Iowa. The majority of the grain belt is expected to stay drier than normal during that time with chances for precipitation isolated to Michigan and Ohio.   

 

Exporters sell 135,000 MT of soybean cake and meal for delivery to Philippines during the 2017/2018 marketing year-USDA

 

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Last week’s supply and demand report will most likely continue to weigh on prices this morning. The surprise yield increase for corn was well above market expectations and some analysts are concerned they may raise it further in the coming months. Soybean yield was also above expectations and recent stories about delays in soybean imports in China may also be in the back of traders minds this morning.

 

The cash market creeped higher last week with Soybeans posting stronger gains than corn. Soybean basis improved nationally by 3 cents with soybean plants up 7 cents and basis at river terminals up 11 cents. The gulf soybean basis increased 7 cents this week. Corn basis increased a penny across the U.S with ethanol plants up 1.5 cents and basis at river terminals increasing 3 cents.   

 

 

Russian wheat prices fell for a second week in a row as the Rouble lost strength compared to the dollar. Russian wheat fell to $191.5 per metric ton last week, down from $192 the week before. The large Russian harvest continues to put downward pressure on global prices. Russia is expected to export a record 45 million metric tons this marketing year.     

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

November 10, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 364

Weekly Cash Comments

Weekly Cash Commentary for week ending 11/10/2017

Soybeans continued to move higher on basis this week as harvest wraps up and fresh supplies are becoming limited. For the week, US average soybean basis climbed 3-cents while corn basis inched up 1-cent as harvest deliveries were still strong in the Western Cornbelt.

Beans found strength this week driven in part by the Gulf export market which shot up 7 cents a bushel which helped an even bigger move at upstream river terminals which garnered an 11-cent advance. There was however some disruptions in barge traffic on the lower Ohio near Paducah, KY as heavy rains and a rock dike stymied movement. Elevators there took a defensive stance on basis giving up 6 cents on the week. Crush plants followed suit with the broader market moving up 7 cents on average but gains of 10 to 15 cents were fairly widespread at some key facilities.

 

For corn, the market was more subdued as harvest continues to be in full force in the Upper Midwest. Nonetheless, river terminals as a group still managed a 3-cent advance on average. However, ethanol plants were more subdued bidding up basis only 1.5 cents on average.

Basis levels should continue to climb as harvest wraps up in the coming days for beans and likely wraps up enough in corn to slow pipeline supplies. With futures heading south farmer selling should be more limited once we get done with the harvest season.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

November 09, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 985

Export Sales for Corn and Wheat This Week Were Strong

January Soybeans Trading Higher This Morning

In the overnight session the grains were mixed soybeans showing the most strength as traders anticipate a production revision lower in the WASDE report released today. December corn is trading unchanged, January soybeans are trading 3 ¾ cents higher this morning and are now above $10 per bushel. December Chicago wheat is up ¼ penny this morning.

 

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Ethanol production improved only slightly this week with the Wednesday EIA report showing last week’s production at 1.057 million barrels per day, up from 1.056 million barrels per day last week. Ethanol stocks decreased slightly to 21.345 million barrels but continue to be at record levels for this time of the year. Since the beginning of the marketing year ethanol has been produced at a strong rate, averaging around 3.3% above last year’s levels.


 

It is taking longer to issue safety certificates for non GMO soybeans for import into China and at least a couple vessels are without certificates in China ports. The delay in receiving these certificates can be very costly as traders suffer from higher demurrage costs for each day the ship sits without being unloaded. Though this delay has impacted only a few ships recently it is changing the way traders are sourcing their soybeans, favoring the Gulf of Mexico over the Pacific Northwest because the longer transit time provides more lead to receive the safety certificates on time.


 

Export sales were strong for corn and wheat this week, but below expectations for soybeans. This weeks wheat export sales were a marketing year high and beat expectations sharply. This weeks wheat sales was boosted due to a large Iraq order of 450,000 metric tons. Corn sales were also up sharply from last week, with Mexico accounting for nearly half of the sales. Mexico accounted for nearly all the new crop corn sales recorded this week. Soybean sales were down 39 percent from last week and missed analyst expectations.

 

Weekly Export Sales-

 

Actual

Estimated

Wheat

781

350-550

Corn - OC

2,364

1,200-1,600

Corn - NC

574

500-700

Soybeans - OC

1,160

1,300-1,800

Soybeans - NC

4

0-50


 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

November 08, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 953

Chicago Soybean Futures Rose for a Third Consecutive Session on Wednesday

Reuters Poll of Analysts Say the Expectation is for the USDA to Revise Corn Production Higher

In the overnight session the grains were mixed with December corn down ½ a cent, January soybeans up 1 ¼ cents and December Chicago wheat down 2 ½ cents this morning. Soybeans have had a strong three days as traders anticipate the oilseeds production being revised lower in tomorrow’s USDA report. Corn continues to be range bound, but soybeans trend-line support has held over the last week and January soybeans is now only 2 cents away from $10 per bushel.

 

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According to a Reuters poll of analysts, the expectation is for the USDA to revise corn production higher to 14.33 billion bushels from 14.28 billion bushels reported in October. The revision is expected to come from a stronger yield of 172.4 bushels per acre which would be .6 bushels per acre higher than last month. Soybean production is expected to be lowered to 4.408 billion bushels from 4.431 billion bushels in October. The trade is expecting yield to be at 49.3 bushels per acre from 49.5 bushels per acre in October.


 

Yesterday, the lower Ohio river at Paducah was closed to navigation due to high water following recent rains. The river has risen more than 3 feet in the past week to 16.6 feet and is expected to peak next Tuesday. The Army Corps will be working to remove a rock dike that is preventing vessels from passing over the lowered wicket dam during high water periods, but it is unclear how long the stretch of river will be closed.   

 

In a recent tender by Egypt’s GASC for wheat  delivered between December 15th-30th the lowest offers was for Russian wheat at $195.30 and $196.50 per metric ton.
 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

November 07, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 807

Chicago Soybeans Futures Turn Lower on Tuesday as Harvest Reaches Completion

Grains Trading Lower in Overnight Session

In the overnight session the grains are trading lower with December corn down 1 cent, January soybeans down 1 ¾ cents and December wheat down 4 ½ cents.

 

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The latest Crop Progress report, which was released yesterday afternoon by the USDA, showed that harvest pace was in line with analyst expectations. Soybean harvest was 90 percent complete, up from 83 percent complete last week and in line with the five year average. Corn harvest was reported at 70 percent complete, up from 54 percent the previous week, but still behind the five year average pace of 83 percent complete.  

 

Exporters sell 130,000 MT of Corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2017/2018 marketing year - USDA

 

Winter wheat condition improved to 55 percent of the crop rated good-to- excellent, up from 52 percent a week ago. The USDA reported that 91 percent of the crop has been planted, up from 84 percent a week ago. Planting pace is now in line with the five year average.   

This week President Trump will be visiting Beijing as a part of his Asian tour which has included Japan and South Korea so far. While visiting, Chinese soybean buyers will commit to buying more U.S soybeans by signing a letter of intent. The quantity of U.S soybeans is currently unknown, but the gesture marks the importance U.S farm goods in China. China is also expected purchase more U.S. beef after the country lifted a trading ban this year.        

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

November 06, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 676

Heavy Rains Stalled Harvest in the Midwest; Back on Track This Week

The Grains Were Trading Higher Overnight

In the overnight session the grains are trading higher with December corn up 1 cent, January soybeans up 1 ¾ cents and wheat up 3 ½ cents.

 

Exporters sell 130,000 MT of Corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2017/2018 marketing year-USDA

 

Temperatures are expected to continue being cooler than normal throughout the majority of the grain belt in the 6-10 day forecast. The precipitation is expected to be drier than normal across the Midwest except for northern Minnesota and Wisconsin. The market will be looking to the USDA Supply and Demand report which is scheduled for release on Thursday this week. Early expectations for the report are for corn yield to be moved higher and for soybean yield to be revised lower.   

 

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The wheat market is trading higher on short covering this morning and some positive news that Iraq has purchased 500,000 metric tons of U.S. wheat. Cargill will supply 300,000 metric tons, ADM will supply 150,000 metric tons and another undisclosed firm will supply 50,000 metric tons. Weather in eastern Australia continues to worsen as hot dry weather continues to threaten further deterioration in the wheat production.

 

The cash market is showing some signs of rebounding from harvest lows with the national basis average increasing 1 cent for corn and 3 cents for Soybeans. Barge rates have declined to seasonally normal levels allowing river terminals to improve bids this week between 5-10 cents for corn and 10-15 cents for soybeans. Soybean plants also increased their bids this week, jumping 5 cents on average across the U.S.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

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