September 18, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 202

Friday’s NOPA Crush Numbers Better Than Expected

Grains Head into Morning Break Slightly Lower

Grains went into the morning break slightly lower after a night of two-sided trade. Corn and wheat were off 2 while soybeans was off a half.

 

USDA announced the sale of 261,000 MT Of soybeans to China and 126,000 MT to unknown destinations.

 

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Russian wheat export prices rose for a second consecutive week due to higher global benchmarks and the strengthening of the rouble against the dollar, analysts said on Monday. Black Sea prices for Russian wheat with 12.5 percent protein content and September delivery were at $185 a tonne on a free-on-board (FOB) basis at the end of last week, up $2 from the week earlier, agriculture consultancy IKAR said.

 

Argentina's 2017/18 soybean harvest is expected to fall by as much as 7 percent to 52 million tonnes compared with the 2016/17 crop year, local agriculture analysts said on Friday, citing low profit margins and excess water caused by heavy rains.

Friday saw NOPA soy crush estimates better than expected with 142.42 MB of soybeans crushed in August. This was the largest crush on record for August and beat expectations that averaged 137.5 with range of estimates from 133.1 to 144.7.

 

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September 15, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 208

Weekly Cash Comments

Weekly Cash Commentary for week ending 09/15/2017

Grain basis was mixed throughout the country as the convergence of old-crop/new-crop marketing seasons begins to cause some shifting patterns in basis. On the week, US average corn basis was fractionally higher while soybeans lost 3 cents a bushel.

 

For corn, early harvest in parts of the Southern US is starting to weigh on basis. At the same time recent weeks of active farming selling of old-crop corn has helped mute basis strength. However, end-buyers of corn started to show a bit more strength for corn with ethanol plants as a group up 1 cent on the week. In the WCB basis at some plants showed more buoyancy with gains of 3 to 5 cents fairly typical. For river markets, they were generally weaker by 4 cents.

 

Corn basis was buoyed mostly by ethanol plants which saw a 3-cent gain on the week. Much of the Western Cornbelt saw solid basis improvements on the week as farmers there face lower yield potential and hold back on any old-crop deals. Meanwhile at river terminals basis was up about 2 cents, on par with the broader movement across the US. The Gulf was mostly steady on the week.

 

For soybeans, basis levels were sharply lower in IA/MN/MO and S IN as buyers start to move basis levels to their new-crop bid. Soybean crush facilities were off 5 cents on the week while river terminals held mostly stable as strong export demand of late keeps a bid under the market.

 

In terms of the competitive landscape, IA & MN saw some smaller players heat up the market place with 10 cent advances on basis as late season farmer selling there has slowed.

 

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September 15, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 323

Grains Lower in the Overnight with Soybeans Giving Up 3 Cents

NOPA Crush Estimates To Be Released Today at 11 CST

Grains were lower overnight with soybeans giving up 3 cents after yesterday’s sharp 16 cent rally. Corn was also lower while wheat was unchanged going into the morning break.

 

EXPORTERS SELL 132,000 METRIC TONS OF SOYBEANS FOR DELIVERY TO CHINA DURING THE 2017/2018 MARKETING YEAR- USDA

 

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India's edible oil imports are likely to rise 1.6 percent from a year ago to 15.5 million tonnes in 2017/18 as overseas purchases of palm oil are expected to rise, a leading industry analyst Dorab Mistry said on Friday.
The world's biggest edible oil importer is likely to import 3.5 percent more of palm oil from a year ago in the marketing year starting Nov. 1, pushing up its overseas purchases to 9.65 million tonnes, Mistry told Globoil India conference in Mumbai.

 

Friday at 11 am CST NOPA crush estimates will be released. Traders look for the best August crush number in over a decade with 137.5 MB expected. That compares to 131.8 in August of 2016. Crush forecasts ranged from 133.1 to 144.7

Over the next few weeks US weather seems mostly benign as some rains in WCB may slow harvest but help aid soil moisture for winter wheat planting. Meteorologists see no real threat of an early freeze that would impact late season crop development.


 

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September 14, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 359

Strong Number for Beans on Export Sales Report This Morning from USDA

Grains Found Buying Strength in the Overnight Session

Grains found a bit of buying strength overnight with beans and wheat leading the complex higher on 5 cent gains while corn lagged behind on a 2-cent advance.

 

EXPORTERS SELL 198,000 METRIC TONS OF SOYBEANS FOR DELIVERY TO CHINA DURING THE 2017/2018 MARKETING YEAR- USDA

 

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Argentina's 2017/18 corn and wheat planted areas are seen at 6.2 million hectares and 5.4 million hectares, respectively, the Rosario Grains Exchange said on Wednesday, higher than the 5.85 million hectares and 5.3 million hectares planted in 2016/17. The 2017/18 wheat harvest will reach 17 million tonnes, the exchange said in its monthly report. The estimate for wheat planted area was slightly lower than the exchange's previous estimate for 5.45 million hectares due to excessively wet conditions in much of Argentina's grains belt.

Friday at 11 am CST NOPA crush estimates will be released. Traders look for the best August crush number in over a decade with 137.5 MB expected. That compares to 131.8 in August of 2016. Crush forecasts ranged from 133.1 to 144.7

 

This morning’s weekly export sales report from USDA showed a strong number for beans with 1.6 MMT sold versus 1 to 1-3 expected going into the report. Corn came in at the high side of the range while wheat fell below trade expectations.


 

Weekly Export Sales-

 

Actual

Estimated

Wheat - NC

316

350-550

Corn - NC

1,046

800-1,100

Soybeans - NC

1,612

1,000-1,300

 

 

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September 13, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 264

Corn and Beans Advance in the Overnight Session

USDA Report on Tuesday Brought Bearish News to Grains

Grains were higher overnight with corn advancing 2 cents while soybeans and wheat added 4 cents.

 

EXPORTERS SELL 167,370 METRIC TONS OF SOYBEANS FOR DELIVERY TO MEXICO DURING THE 2017/2018 MARKETING YEAR- USDA

 

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USDA’s report on Tuesday brought more bearish news to the grains. Corn yields were increased by 0.4 to 169.9 for a 14.14 bil bushel crop. Bean yields also increased by 0.5 to 49.9 for a 4.43 billion bushel crop.

 

New crop crush was unchanged but exports were increased 25 to 2.250 bil bu. The China buying has exploded over the last few weeks but remains very far behind the pace set over the last two years. The increased old and new crop usage offset the higher bean yields.

Price action saw the market sell-off after the USDA report, hitting lows within the first hour, but since then have managed to pull back higher with beans adding 20-cents.

 

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September 12, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 212

Today’s USDA Report Expected to Show Only Minor Adjustments

Ahead of the USDA Report, Corn and Beans Were Off 1 This Morning

Grains went into the morning break with sideways trade action still the major theme. Ahead of the USDA report corn and beans were off 1 while wheat was up 1.

 

EXPORTERS SELL 132,000 METRIC TONS OF SOYBEANS FOR DELIVERY TO UNKNOWN DESTINATIONS DURING THE 2017/2018 MARKETING YEAR- USDA

 

Today’s USDA report at 11 am CDT is expected to show only minor adjustments in production and carry-out figures. But with traders on guard for surprises, there should still be some volatile trade around the report. Overall, traders look for a slight drop in US corn carry-out to 2,180 MB from 2,273; last month on a US yield of 168.2. For soybeans, ending stocks are expected to dip to 442 MB from 475 last month based on a 48.8 bushel yield.

 

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On Monday after the close, USDA showed the corn crop was 5% harvested on par with the long-term average for this time of year. Condition ratings for corn continued to hold firm at 61% while soybean conditions dipped 1%.

Overnight, the French ag minister estimated the corn crop there at 12.75 MMT unchanged from last month and 8.9% on the year. The wheat crop was pegged at 37.8 MMT up from 36.8 last month and 37% from 2016.

 

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September 11, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 352

Grains Mostly Directionless to Start the Week

USDA Releases the Quarterly Stocks Report Tomorrow

Grains were mostly directionless to start the week with corn down 1, soybeans up 1 and Chicago wheat giving up 4.

 

Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 352,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2017/2018 marketing year.

 

Despite a drop in U.S. wheat production this year, a record Russian harvest and large crop in Ukraine are expected to keep international markets well supplied this year. In addition, Egypt is said to be considering rejection of a French wheat cargo due to the presence of poppy seeds which lends more uncertainty about the world’s #1 wheat importer.

 

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Tomorrow brings new data from USDA with the release of the Quarterly Stocks report and USDA’s WASDE Report. For corn, traders look for a 168.2 bushel yield as compared to August of 169.5 while soybeans are pegged at 48.8 vs USDA at 49.4. Traders also look for a slight drop in US new-crop carry-out numbers with corn expected to 2,180 MB from USDA’s August projection of 2,273 while soybeans dip to 442 MB from USDA’s August estimate of 475 MB.

The weather forecast has mostly dry weather for the dominant grain areas for the next week. This could reduce chances for late rains to add esp to the US soybean yield. The 11-16 day forecast has no cold air threats with close to average temps for the Plains, Midwest, and Delta. Precip looks to run near average in the Midwest and Delta and below average in the Plains.

 

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September 07, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 341

Export Sales to be Released Tomorrow Due To Holiday

Grains Were Mixed in the Overnight Session

In the overnight session the grains were mixed with December corn down 1 ¼ cents, November soybeans up 2 cents and December Chicago wheat down 1 ¾ cents. There was spotty showers over the last day in Western Michigan, Indiana, Eastern Wisconsin and Northwest Ohio. The shorter term 1-5 day forecast will be dry with precipitation in the Western grain belt expected in the 6-10 day forecast. The 6-10 day weather temperature is expected to remain cooler than normal, but the risk of an early freeze is still unlikely over the next two weeks.    

 

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This morning Reuters reported that the EU is expecting to lower Tariffs on Argentina Biodiesel imports by late September. This news follows the announcement in August that the U.S. will increase Tariffs on Argentine Biodiesel and that the countervailing duties could be as much as 64.17 percent.

 

On Wednesday, Linn & Associates pegged the domestic corn crop at 13.765 billion bushels with a yield of 165.8 bpa and harvested area of 83 million acres. Their soybean estimate was for 4.423 billion bushels with a 49.3 bpa yield estimate. Both estimates fall below the August WASDE report which pegged corn at 169.5 bpa and soybean yield at 49.4 bpa. The September WASDE report will be released at 11 AM CST on Tuesday September 12th.

Due to the holiday this week, export sales have been pushed back a day and will be released tomorrow. EIA ethanol production which will wrap up the 2016-17 marketing year will be released later today.  

 

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September 06, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 437

Hurricane Harvey Impact

Crop Conditions Reported Yesterday

In the overnight session the grains have traded lower with December corn down 1 ¼ cents, November soybeans down ½ cents and December Chicago wheat down 1 ½ cents. Corn continues to struggle against the resistance level of around $3.58 which was last years low for the contract.   

 

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Crop conditions were reported within analyst expectations after the market closed yesterday. Corn declined by a percentage point to 61 percent good to excellent compared to expectations of holding steady. Soybean conditions were unchanged at 61 percent good to excellent. The U.S spring wheat is 89 percent harvested compared to a five year average of 78 percent by this week.

 

On Tuesday, Brazil’s Agroconsult reported their latest 2017-18 crop estimates. Brazil’s soy crop is estimated at 111.1 million metric tons which is 4 percent below last years record. Agroconsult estimated their first corn crop at 26.1 million metric tons which was 14 percent below 2016-17 levels.  

 

The Stocks of Principal Field Crops Report was released this morning by Statistics Canada which showed Canadian grain stocks as of July 31st. According to the report wheat stocks were 6.9 million metric tons which was up 32.6 percent from last year. Durum wheat stocks were up 69.4 percent from last year at 1.9 million metric tons. Canola stocks however were 1.3 million metric tons which was a 35.5 percent decline from last year.       

Hurricane Harvey’s impact on wheat export out of Texas continues to linger after flooded railroad tracks and closed ports stopped all movement of wheat last week. Hurricane Irma is now on track to hit Florida by the weekend and has been strengthening with winds up to 185 miles per hour.  

 

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August 30, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 405

Grains Mostly Unchanged in the Overnight Session

Exporters sell 131,000 MT of Soybeans for delivery to china during the 2017/2018 marketing year. USDA

In the overnight session the grains were mostly unchanged with December corn unchanged, November soybeans unchanged and December Chicago wheat up 2 ¾ cents. The weather forecast provides very little moisture over the next two weeks and cooler temperatures are expected to enter the Midwest by September 5th. Opportunities for precipitation look to be limited mostly to the Delta, eastern Grain-belt and Ohio river valley region in the 1-5 day forecast.    

 

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The grains have come under pressure following the Pro Farmer crop tour as traders became less concerned that the USDA would revise production lower. The grains could be facing further pressure from the cash market this week as unpriced DP cash grain contracts for old crop corn and soybeans will need to be set by Thursday. The crop marketing year will begin September 1st for corn and soybeans.  

 

Exporters sell 131,000 MT of Soybeans for delivery to China during the 2017/2018 marketing year. USDA

 

In the wheat tender that closed Tuesday, Egypt’s grain buyer GASC announced it bought 295,000 metric tons of wheat primarily sourced from Russia with 60,000 metric tons sourced from Ukraine.

On the domestic front, 226,000 metric tons of corn was sold to Mexico for delivery during the 2017/18 marketing year and 198,000 metric tons of soybeans were sold to China for delivery in the 2017/18 marketing year.  


 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

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Weekly Cash Comments

September 15, 2017 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew

Grain basis was mixed throughout the country as the convergence of old-crop/new-crop marketing seasons begins to cause some shifting patterns in basis. On the week, US average corn basis was fractionally higher while soybeans lost 3 cents a bushel.

[Read More]