August 26, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 145
August 26, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 115

Weekly Cash Comments

Weekly Cash Commentary for week ending 08/26/2016

The cash markets remained relatively stable this week posing slight gains of an average of 1 cent per bushel.

 

This week Spanish energy firm Abengoa sold 5 of its Ethanol plants to Green Plains Inc. of Omaha, NE. There have not been many indications how this will affect ethanol basis in the short term. Ethanol plants regained last week’s losses gaining 1.5 cents. Corn basis along the river saw marginal gains of 1 cent per bushel. Nationally however, corn basis was down almost half a cent per bushel. This is the third week in a row corn basis has went down.

 

Soybeans have been a different story. Soybean demand remains high and analysts expect strong demand to continue despite the lower prices and strong yield potential. Basis at river terminals is most indicative of the strong demand and saw gains of 7.5 cents per bushel. Crush facilities saw basis gains as well, gaining almost 1 cent. Nationally soybeans gained 1.5 cents per bushel.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

August 26, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 113

Overnight Session Saw Soybeans Trying to Reverse Yesterday’s Sell Off

Grains in positive territory to start the day

Grains were in positive territory to start today. Soybeans were trying to reverse yesterday’s punishing sell-off while wheat and corn were only fractionally higher in anemic trade.

 

Day 4 of the Pro Farmer Tour estimated corn yields in Iowa at 188.17 bushels per acre, up from 180.25 bpa last year and the three-year crop tour average of 176.98 bpa. The estimate trailed the U.S. Department of Agriculture's forecast of 197 bpa. Soybean pod counts in a 3-by-3 foot area averaged 1,224.28 pods, just above last year's total of 1,219.21 pods and the three-year tour average of 1,106.70 pods.


Corn yield potential and soybean pod counts in Minnesota were above average but lower than 2015, scouts on an annual tour found on Thursday. Average corn yield was pegged at 182.32 bushels per acre. That compares with the tour's three-year average for the state of 180.91 bushels per acre and its 2015 findings of 190.87 bushels per acre. Minnesota soybean pod counts in a 3-by-3 foot area were at 1,107.60, down from 1,119.22 in 2015 but up from the three-year average of 1,006.73. Pro Farmer will release their US crop production forecasts today after the markets close.

 

In France, the corn crop there remained stable last week, data from farm office FranceAgriMer showed on Friday, after two weeks of decline that suggested dry summer weather was having an effect in the European Union's biggest grain producer. Some 63% of the crop was rated good or excellent as of Aug. 22, unchanged from a week earlier.


 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)


 

August 25, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 116

Day 3 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Projections

Grains were mixed in the overnight.

Grains were mixed overnight with Nov beans spending much of the night below $10 while corn and wheat were holding onto small gains going into the break.

 

Day 3 of ProThe annual Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour on Wednesday projected Illinois' corn yield potential sharply higher than last year but the estimates trailed USDA’s record-large forecast.
Scouts on the four-day tour predicted average corn yields in Illinois at 193.50 bushels per acre, up from 171.64 bpa last year and the three-year crop tour average of 179.69 bpa. The outlook was below USDA's Aug. 12 estimate of 200 bpa, which if realized would equal 2014's record average yields in the state. Soybean pod counts in a 3-by-3 foot area were calculated at a statewide average of 1,318.09, up both from 1,190.47 pods in 2015 and the three-year tour average of 1,201.87 pods.
 

In Western Iowa, Pro Farmer pegged the crop there at 187.5 vs 181.5 in 2015 and a 3-year average of 175.9. For soybeans, the pod count came in at 1,290 this year vs 1,263 last year and a 3-year average of 1,161.

 

The International Grains Council on Thursday raised its forecasts for both world wheat and corn production in the 2016/17 season.  The IGC projected world wheat production in 2016/17 at 743 MMT, up from a previous forecast of 735.  World corn production in 2016/17 was seen at 1.030 billion tonnes, up from a previous projection of 1.017 billion.

 

WEEKLY EXPORT SALES

 

                            OC-Act        OC-Exp     NC-Act           NC-Exp

Corn                            71       100-250       1,059       800-1,000

Soybeans                   115         50-200       1,939    1,100-1,300

Wheat                                                         379          400-600


 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)


 

August 24, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | | Views: 306
August 24, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 315

Day 2 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Results

Crude Oil is off nearly $1 a Barrel

Grains continued to weaken overnight and crude oil was off nearly $1 a barrel.

 

Day 2 of Pro Farmer’s crop tour were in fields in Nebraska and Indiana. The crop tour projected Indiana's corn yield at 173.42 bushels per acre, up both from last year's estimate of 142.94 bpa and the three-year crop tour average of 165.11 bpa. USDA said yields in the state would average 187 bpa, up from 150 bpa in 2015.  The crop tour does not estimate soybean yields but projected the amount of soybean pods in a 3-by-3-foot area at 1,178.41 pods, up from 1,093.08 pods last year and the three-year tour average of 1,166.34 pods. USDA estimated soybean yields at 55 bpa, up from 50 bpa in 2015.

 

The forecast for Nebraska was 158.60 for corn, below 165.16 in 2015. The soy pod count came in at 1,178 vs 1,093 last year.

 

Yesterday, Egypt’s GASC canceled its tender to buy wheat. GASC did not give a reason for the cancellation. Cairo-based traders said they were surprised by the decision to cancel after hours of negotiations with several suppliers who had presented offers to GASC.

 

In international pricing, the recent slide in the US wheat price and losses in the US dollar, combined with a move higher in Ukrainian prices has put the US in a better competitive position. Last month, Ukraine wheat prices were $17/MT lower than the US and today’s values are on par with each other.

 

Crude oil prices continued to slump this week. Industry data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed on Tuesday that U.S. crude inventories had risen by 4.5 million barrels in the week ending Aug. 19. Analysts had expected a 455,000-barrel fall. Official EIA data on inventories will be out later this morning, and are expected to show a modest dip, but that was before API data came in surprisingly large.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)


 

August 23, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 342
August 23, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 146

Grains Start the Day Weaker

Crude Oil Continues to Slide

Grains were weaker to start the day while crude prices continued to slide in overnight trade.

 

Pro Farmer’s crop tour concluded day 1 reporting estimates for OH & SD. Corn yields in Ohio were projected to come in roughly unchanged with last year and down from a three-year average after dry field conditions negatively impacted fields in parts of the state. Corn yields in Ohio are projected to be 148.96 bushels per acre, just above 148.37 bpa in 2015 and down from the three-year tour average of 167.37 bpa. USDA pegged Ohio yields at 163 bpa, up from 153 bpa in 2015. For soybeans, the tour estimated the amount of soybean pods in a 3-by-3-foot square in Ohio at an average 1,055.05 pods, down from 1,125.26 last year and the three-year average of 1,250.43 pods.

 

In South Dakota, corn yield was estimated at 149.78 bushels per acre, below the tour's three-year average of 160.13. A year ago, scouts on the tour calculated the average South Dakota corn yield at 165.94 bushels per acre. Soybean pod counts in a 3-by-3 foot area were pegged at a statewide average of 970.61. That compares with average pod counts of 1,054.98 in 2015 and the three-year average of 1,043.15.

 

In overnight news, Egypt’s GASC was tendering for wheat. The lowest offer came from Ukraine for $171 /MT. Stats Canada released new crop estimates, pegging the all wheat crop at 30.49 MMT, up from last month’s forecast and up 10% from last year. Anola output was estimated at 17.02 MMT, off 1.2% from last year

 

Crude oil prices continued their slide this morning, giving up 50 cents a barrel after yesterday's steep sell-off of a $1.70 a barrel.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

August 22, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 406
August 22, 2016 | Grain Hedge Insights | Kevin McNew | Views: 168

Grains were Lower to Start the Week

Crude oil prices fall on Monday

Grains were lower to start the week as were most of the outside commodity and equity markets.

 

The Pro Farmer crop tour gets underway today as two teams will traverse across the Midwest to come up with corn and soybean yield forecasts. This year, with USDA’s August forecast so much in question, the PF tour should take on added weight in helping the market determine a true value for yields.

 

This morning USDA announced the sale of 120,000 MT of new-crop sales to unknown destinations. That marks the 3rd trade day in a row of soybean deals announced by USDA.

 

In weather, rains return to the Midwest late Tue.-Thu., with the heaviest in C. & SW Iowa/N. Missouri/E. Kansas/far E. Nebraska. The 6-15 day shows rains in W. Midwest corn/soy and threaten pockets of excess rain (main risk in Iowa).

 

Crude oil prices fell Monday amid fading hope for a unilateral agreement on production cuts from major producers and as traders and money managers cashed in recent profits.The prospect of the OPEC agreeing with other major producers to cut or freeze production in September is now starting to fizzle out with most observers now convinced that there is little chance of a consensus being reached. Any tailwind this may have given to prices over the past week won't be there in the coming five days.

 

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)


 

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