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June 30, 2020 | FBN Insights | Kevin McNew

USDA Crop Condition Report Highlights

Corn crop was rated 73% good to excellent up from 72% last week

USDA Crop Condition Report Highlights 

  • The corn crop was rated 73% good to excellent up from 72% last week, and 56% last year.
  • Soybean crop conditions were 71% good to excellent, compared with 70% last week and 54% last year.
  • Winter wheat conditions were unchanged at 52% good to excellent, remaining below 63% last year.
  • Winter wheat harvest was a little slower than expected at 41% complete, but still on pace with average.
  • Spring wheat conditions were lower than expected at 69% good to excellent, down from 75% last week.
  • Cotton crop condition improved to 41% good to excellent from 40% last week, but is behind the 52% seen last year.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: The recent rainfall improved crop development in the Eastern Corn Belt, but left the Northern Plains wanting. Many of the dryland cotton production areas in West Texas missed the more significant rainfall and the crop is performing quite poorly this year with the potential for some significant losses. However, irrigated cotton areas are developing under mostly favorable conditions despite the ongoing dryness.

 

Ukraine’s Wheat Crop Forecast Lower

  • Agritel projects Ukraine’s 2020 wheat crop falling 7.2% to 26.25 million tonnes.
  • The crop estimate comes following a June 15-19 field tour in Ukraine which saw a lower planted area.
  • The projected yield of just over 4 tonnes per hectare is on par with the 5-year average, but below trend.
  • Agritel’s estimated production would imply an exportable surplus of 17.8 million tonnes for the upcoming marketing year.
  • The Ukranian government has already proposed a limit on wheat exports of 17.2 million tonnes.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Agritel’s wheat crop forecast is slightly above the average of analysts’ estimates which is seen at 25.4 million tonnes. Even if limited by the government, the potential exports are well within expectations and would add to already plentiful supplies.  

 

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