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June 04, 2019 | FBN Insights | Kevin McNew

32% of US Corn Acres Still Left to Plant

Historical Low Planting Levels for Corn

USDA Crop Progress: 32% of U.S. corn acres still to plant;  Record Low

  • The USDA’s June 3 crop progress report showed strikingly and historical low planting levels for corn.  32% of the U.S. corn crop, or 29.696 million acres is still left to planted headed into the June 5 prevent plant dates for the eastern corn belt.  
  • Eastern corn belt GFS 5 day model runs showing material precipitation for key growing states.  
  • The planting pace in Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and South Dakota are all at historically slow rates leaving millions of acres unplanted.  
  • The current pace combined with other variables like weather and insurance based economics should force the USDA to adjust their planted/harvest acres figures and the yield estimated in the June WASDE.  
  • Reported planted soybean acres at 39% was a historical slow pace for the week.  
  • All major producing states are either at, or approaching historical lows.  
  • The USDA reported their first crop condition scores for spring wheat.  All major producing states: Minnesota, North/South Dakota, and Montana all have 0% classified as “very poor” and 1% classified as “poor.”
  • Hard and soft wheat scores show some weakness after last week but overall the HRW scores remain strong.  
  • What It Means For The US Farmer: At FBN we believe that the corn and soybean scores are bullish.  However we also believe that the 2018/19 demand side of the corn and soybean equations are bearish.  We believe that a strong U.S. dollar, a lackluster corn export program and slowing demand structure in China present headwinds for the U.S. corn and soybean balance sheets.  There is still a long time until harvest but we believe that the developing story can be supportive U.S. corn.




Russian Wheat Production Lowered by .8 MMT to 82.6 MMT     

  • Citing dryness and above average heat agri-consultant, SovEcon, lowered Russian wheat production by .8 MMT to 82.6 MMT.  
  • 2018/19 Russian wheat production was 71.2 MMT.  
  • SovEcon also downgraded its estimate of Russia's grain exports in the new 2019/20 marketing year, which starts on July 1, by 700,000 tonnes to 48.7 MMT. The wheat export forecast was cut by 500,000 tonnes to 37.7 MMT.
  • Russian winter and spring wheat conditions have been ideal headed into June leaving ample amounts of moisture in the soil.  
  • Russian winter wheat is entering the heading stage with the harvest starting in July.
  • What It Means For The US Farmer:  We believe that recent Russian wheat forecast can be beneficial to the U.S. farmer.  The weakening of the Russian ruble combined with appreciation the HRW futures curve has compressed Russian/U.S. FOB spreads making U.S. wheat uncompetitive against Russian wheat.  At FBN we maintain that these are not supportive for the U.S. export program.


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