32% of US Corn Acres Still Left to Plant
Historical Low Planting Levels for Corn
USDA Crop Progress: 32% of U.S. corn acres still to plant; Record Low
- The USDA’s June 3 crop progress report showed strikingly and historical low planting levels for corn. 32% of the U.S. corn crop, or 29.696 million acres is still left to planted headed into the June 5 prevent plant dates for the eastern corn belt.
- Eastern corn belt GFS 5 day model runs showing material precipitation for key growing states.
- The planting pace in Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and South Dakota are all at historically slow rates leaving millions of acres unplanted.
- The current pace combined with other variables like weather and insurance based economics should force the USDA to adjust their planted/harvest acres figures and the yield estimated in the June WASDE.
- Reported planted soybean acres at 39% was a historical slow pace for the week.
- All major producing states are either at, or approaching historical lows.
- The USDA reported their first crop condition scores for spring wheat. All major producing states: Minnesota, North/South Dakota, and Montana all have 0% classified as “very poor” and 1% classified as “poor.”
- Hard and soft wheat scores show some weakness after last week but overall the HRW scores remain strong.
- What It Means For The US Farmer: At FBN we believe that the corn and soybean scores are bullish. However we also believe that the 2018/19 demand side of the corn and soybean equations are bearish. We believe that a strong U.S. dollar, a lackluster corn export program and slowing demand structure in China present headwinds for the U.S. corn and soybean balance sheets. There is still a long time until harvest but we believe that the developing story can be supportive U.S. corn.
Russian Wheat Production Lowered by .8 MMT to 82.6 MMT
- Citing dryness and above average heat agri-consultant, SovEcon, lowered Russian wheat production by .8 MMT to 82.6 MMT.
- 2018/19 Russian wheat production was 71.2 MMT.
- SovEcon also downgraded its estimate of Russia's grain exports in the new 2019/20 marketing year, which starts on July 1, by 700,000 tonnes to 48.7 MMT. The wheat export forecast was cut by 500,000 tonnes to 37.7 MMT.
- Russian winter and spring wheat conditions have been ideal headed into June leaving ample amounts of moisture in the soil.
- Russian winter wheat is entering the heading stage with the harvest starting in July.
- What It Means For The US Farmer: We believe that recent Russian wheat forecast can be beneficial to the U.S. farmer. The weakening of the Russian ruble combined with appreciation the HRW futures curve has compressed Russian/U.S. FOB spreads making U.S. wheat uncompetitive against Russian wheat. At FBN we maintain that these are not supportive for the U.S. export program.
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